Some people think the Republicans will win this one too. But four major weak spots are working against them this time:
(1) They're trying to use their usual tactics of spinning and smearing in the political system - but
that might not work this time, because now they're up against the legal system. Getting 270 electoral votes is a whole different ball game than convincing a judge and a jury. But Republicans have already shown a tendency to fight today's battles with yesterday's tactics.
(2) They're much more comfortable at playing offense - they're
out of practice when it come to playing defense.
(3) They can't keep their talking points straight. Former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie contradicted current RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, and
Luskin keeps contradicting the party line. Scotty McClellan keeps contradicting himself and Bush promised to fire the leaker but now he stands by Rove.
(4) Bush is majorly conflicted on this. On the one hand, he NEVER admits he made a mistake. On the other hand, the Republicans' main claim to fame is National Security - and making an alleged traitor the face of the party is going to put a serious dent in that image.