backlash to a likely future economic upheaval - what will it be?

[salin]

So China is pulling back from buying up all those treasury notes used to finance our national debt, and appears to quietly have (or will?) unpeg the Yuan from the Dollar. That is just one step.

More manufacturers (think big Three) and other large employers are announcing MORE layoffs (think - moving more jobs overseas) just as our Congress is poised - due to cudgel of WH and DeLay - to pass CAFTA (the newest send more jobs away.)

We continue to see health insurance climb exponentially with no apparent efforts to curb that effort, and the administration's next tax "reform" package includes a provision to REMOVE the tax incentives for employers to offer health coverage to employees. More folks will either become uninsured and at risk of going into major debt for even a small health crisis, or will begin to pay a substantial part of their income to buy their health insurance (think: $5,000 per single and 8,000-10,000 for family.)

The level of debt carried by individuals, by businesses, and by government each has the potential to cause devastation to the economy if not propped up. But the only place where currently there is NO policy protection is for the individual debt.

All that said - there is a lot in play - a lot of leveraged folks - and the pain could be pretty deep were a shakeup to come.

So the question - what will the backlash be? I mean the type of backlash that lasts over time and changes the public's thinking about specific economic assumptions. So twenty years from now - are we in an extreme isolationist (trade and foreign policy) position? Or do we find ourselves in a sort Latin American Oligarchy where the wealthy landowners own much of everything - at the expense of the one-time middle class? Do we look like Russia in the late nineties - where former middle class scientists (who were once well respected) are barely working - and where some are reduced to trying to sell "produce" to visitors that is grown in their yards or on patios? Has our currency devalued - and even folks who were once debt-free find their investments worthless?

Face it, I do not think we have the resilience of our grand parents, grand parents or great grandparents (depending on age) who persevered through the depression. In my opinion there would have to be a long period of economic shocks before many built that kind of resiliency. And in the process - the anger we see today - will grow exponentially.

For the first time in my life - I really can not even begin to fathom what it will look like in the future - in my lifetime - and not in terms of cool technological progress - but in terms of the aftermath of this very unstable economic situation that has been created - and escalated in this country. Once policy became fully developed by a combination of a) political calculus (each vote per pleasing a particular group) and of b) political payback for corporate and wealthy donors - then the idea of policy being made based on sound research - with intentional public policy goals in mind (rather than intentional political power being pursued) - there became NO real stewardship - and no real attempt to address, let alone honestly identify, the growing, serious problems undergirding our economy.

Strap on the seat belts - it is going to be a bumpy ride that will likely create a lot of havoc, which will likely lead to a period of diffuse anger and potential violence (in terms of lashing out at perceived "others" - whoever is currently being scapegoated at that time), and eventually (as historical cycles go) a "correction" in terms of our operational beliefs. On the other side will we look more European - or more Banana Republic-like? I rather suspect the former - but with a heck of a lot of trade protectionism and other policies that will have swing too far in terms of an international perspective - but that either way that we will not be the dominant economic power that many of us have grown up believing our country to be.

[wli]

1. banana republic

It's already here, kangaroo courts, stormtroopers, and all. About the only difference is no recovery in sight and a fewer swastikas.

They're prepping for something extremely bad, not just a Depression.

[HamdenRice]

2. The Russian financial catastrophe was great for American strip clubs!

Russian female nuclear physicists were baring their assets for dollars stuffed in G-strings, while Russian male concert violinists were driving cabs in Brooklyn.

I know this is unthinkable -- just as mass emigration from Russia was unthinkable in the 1970s and early 1980s -- but can you see red state Americans wading across the Rio Grande (bibles and Jesus pics wrapped in saran wrap, held over heads) to work in border town machilladores? Waiting tables in France? Drawing (ie pouring draft) guinness in Dublin?

[Vogon_Glory]

6. Most 'Murricans Can Only Speak English

Most 'Murricans can only speak English, and most don't seem to have the slightest interest in learning other language--at least if you believe the bunk in the "English-only" lit. They'd be the perfect mute proles ready-made for the lowest, most menial labor.

Of course, by that point, the GOP party line will be that any American who leaves the US to find work to feed his or her family is a traitor anyway and will deserve what they get.

Gee, thanks, Gee Dubya and you other Banana Republicans for reducing our country and fellow citizens to that level. :sarcasm:

[Deja Q]

3. More offshoring, depression, tussles over oil - leading to REAL war...

The wealthy are offshoring and firing right now to make their bottom lines LOOK as if the economy is going well.

Oh no it isn't.

I am worried.

OTOH, nothing is forever, and I bought "Final Exit". I know when to use it.

[Dhalgren]

4. I see us having a two-level fascist society.

The elite will have all of the amenities and freedoms that money can buy, while everyone else lives in a restricted, fundamentalist-controlled state of propagandized consumerism. But of course the "consumerism" will be along the Wal Mart line...

[htuttle]

5. Historically speaking...

...it seems to me that archeologists often find evidence of brief periods of cannibalism shortly after a great civilization collapses.

That's when they finally ate the rich.

Burp.