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Circa Feb-June, 2003: Wilson calls Condi Rice about Iraq/Niger nuke claim; she says (thru intermediaries, giving her time to consult with others) that she's not interested in his information, but if he's so concerned about it, why doesn't he publish it? (This is, almost word for word, from a Wilson interview I read--but I don't know exactly when it happened.)
July 6, 2003: Wilson article published.
July 14, 2003: Novak outs Plame.
July 18, 2003: Brit WMD expert David Kelly found dead, under extremely suspicious circumstances (after whistleblowing to BBC on Blairite "sexing up" of Iraq intel docs).
July 22, 2003: They go further, and Novak outs CIA front company and all its WMD projects and contacts.
My guess: Kelly was onto plot to plant WMDs in Iraq. Blair was warned on 7/7/03 that Kelly "could say some uncomfortable things"--so they were worried about what he "could say," not what he HAD said. Something turned Kelly around about the war and false intel in April-May 2003--that's what it feels like to me. He had supported the war, then whistleblew AFTER it. The Blairites hunted him down within the gov't, interrogated him in secret, then outed his name to the press, and sent him home without protection. Tough guy, scientist, slits a wrist and takes painkillers out in the open, in the rain, near his home, and bleeds to death all night. Brit intel service, having failed to put him under surveillance (uh-huh), immediately confiscates all his computers and notes.
Panic on AF-1 in Africa. They call at least SIX reporters. Got to get this done NOW (Novak 7/14, after Kelly interrogation). And (after Kelly's dead and his computers are searched) not just Plame, her entire network (Novak 7/22).
In one of his last emails, Kelly expressed worry about the "many dark actors playing games." This email (later disclosed by his family) was to Judith Miller (quite a story there, I think). His various emails just before he died show he was looking forward to his daughter's wedding and returning to Iraq, and thought the whole thing would blow over in a week. My guess: he'd assured the Blairites he would keep their worst secret. Not good enough. They had him offed. The secret was just too dangerous.
So, this would mean that Rovegate is just misdirection, a cover story. They--Cheney et al--were planning for some time to disable Plame and her WMD network; maybe even placed the Iraq Niger claim in the SOTU speech to bait someone; Rice actively baits Wilson; he falls into their snare. Kelly had started whistleblowing on the intel on 5/22, but no one knew who it was until the end of June. As that story gets more and more serious--the whistleblower is Brit's chief WMD specialist--and with the planting of WMDs at some stage of implementation (Judith Miller avidly looking for them in Iraq, her reward will be the "scoop")--but with that scheme possibly already foiled--they quicken their plot against the CIA (Rice baits Wilson; he publishes on 7/6).
They find out Kelly's knows something (7/7). They out Plame (7/14) making it look like Rovian revenge. Kelly is taken care of three days later (7/17). Then they find out the details of what Kelly knew (perhaps his contacts) when his computers are searched, and they out her front company and network (7/22) to prevent discovery of their nefarious scheme (or to punish, disable, kill any who helped foil them; also, it's part of a long term plan for future wars--planting, using WMDs in Iran, Syria, etc.).
The 7/22 additonal Novak outing of the CIA company bothers me. Why take that much greater risk of treason charges--if the motive was just teaching Wilson a lesson? What a completely stupid thing to do--unless you had immediate fear of something far worse being detected. (No doubt they had a long term plan to disable the CIA, especially on WMDs, but the way they did it seems awkward and precipitous--and very risky.)
I've also found puzzling the story that Wilson being married to a WMD expert somehow taints or discredits Wilson. The opposite seems true, that it would ENHANCE his ability to carry out the Niger mission, and underscore his credentials. (--unless the whole thing is a crock; a cover story; Rovian revenge all too believable).
Quite a lot of novel-writing here, it's true. But this Kelly thing happening right in the middle of it all, just seems too coincidental.
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