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What do you think will happen to Cuba after Castro dies?

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LostInAnomie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 09:56 PM
Original message
What do you think will happen to Cuba after Castro dies?
Will the country continue their economic practices and thumb their noses at the US, or with the vultures swoop in and change it back into a playground for the rich?
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roguevalley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:00 PM
Response to Original message
1. turmoil. The florida exiles probably think they can come back and
move in but the locals who stayed don't owe them allegiance and are miffed last I read that they believe they can just move in and run things. There are people there biding their time, I am sure.
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imenja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. they have elaborate plans for how they will take over
in terms of business creation, politics too I imagine. There is a group at the University of Miami that works on planning for Castro's aftermath
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:00 PM
Response to Original message
2. GREAT question, and I don't know. I think a lot of the residents
will welcome intervention, but that means the country will be overtaken by commercial interests.
And the hurricanes! Like I said, I don't know.
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Snotcicles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 05:56 PM
Response to Reply #2
32. C.U.B.A.F.T.A
Edited on Fri Jul-29-05 06:00 PM by Snotcicles
Cheeeap layba.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
4. Politically? I don't know
But there will be one hell of a party in South Beach!
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wli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:04 PM
Response to Original message
5. US invasion and/or coup
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ObaMania Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:05 PM
Response to Original message
6. Well I'm sure that if he passes away anytime soon..
.. our great country (who's strategically placed there already) will move in and "liberate" them.
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Lautremont Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:06 PM
Response to Original message
7. If I had photoshop skills,
I'd pop some golden arches on top of the Palace and post that as my answer. I think it would summarize things nicely.
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MisterP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:09 PM
Response to Original message
8. Sonny, Fredo...
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Liberal In Texas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:10 PM
Response to Original message
9. Halliburton et. al. will buy it.
I've heard about plans to bring in cruise ships to serve as hotel space in Havana harbor when the massive tourist implosion occurs post-Fidel.

I imagine WalMart won't be far behind.


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tuvor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
10. bush will happen.
Gitmo needs to expand. It's a very popular resort, so I hear.
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eallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
11. Most any change would be a large improvement.
Castro is the living demonstration that even a sincere and well-intentioned dictator is first and foremost a dictator. The quicker he shuffles off this mortal coil, the better.

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mitchtv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:18 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I wonder if one of these changes will be
Edited on Thu Jul-28-05 10:20 PM by mitchtv
the loss of their education and health benefit,and return of all private properties?. Ir so , I can't see much improvement for Cubans.One bright spot is a reason to repeal the Cuban Readjustment Act, that gives preferntial treatment to Cubans"fleeing Communism".
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eallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. A dog in a kennel might get its shots, but still is locked in a cage.
Public schools and some degree of public health care doesn't turn a dictatorship into a decent society. Not even making the trains run on time.
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Mika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. Cuba's h-c system rates very high by global standards.
Comparing a world class health care system to trains running on time is ludicrous.

Cuba has one of the highest DR to citizen ratios in the world, and access is for ALL Cubans regardless of income status.

The same applies to education in Cuba, including higher ed.

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mitchtv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
23. put it this way
they are better off now that they were. Of that , there is no doubt, Then they had no political freedom, healthcare or, education.Of course they will never be able to compete with Florida, the great bastion of Freedom.and an immigration policy which rewards lies.
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K-W Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 02:32 PM
Response to Reply #11
25. Neo-liberal reforms would make it much much worse.
They would take away the few things Cuba has going for it.
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Catholic Sensation Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 05:55 PM
Response to Reply #11
31. You've got balls.
Autocratic leftism is as bad as autocratic right wingedness, I wish some people would realize this.
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Mika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
14. One man does not rule Cuba.
Edited on Thu Jul-28-05 10:39 PM by Mika
If one thinks such, then one has their head up their ass. (This is one reason the dictatorial US gov has criminalized US citizen/resident travel to Cuba - so we can't see what is really going on in Cuba.)


The Cuban people fought and worked long and hard to achieve their sovereignty, they won't just simply hand it over. Cuba has a vast and well trained (and armed) civil militia, the US ain't just walking in to take over - if that's the plan.




Before the 1959 revolution

  • 75% of rural dwellings were huts made from palm trees.
  • More than 50% had no toilets of any kind.
  • 85% had no inside running water.
  • 91% had no electricity.
  • There was only 1 doctor per 2,000 people in rural areas.
  • More than one-third of the rural population had intestinal parasites.
  • Only 4% of Cuban peasants ate meat regularly; only 1% ate fish, less than 2% eggs, 3% bread, 11% milk; none ate green vegetables.
  • The average annual income among peasants was $91 (1956), less than 1/3 of the national income per person.
  • 45% of the rural population was illiterate; 44% had never attended a school.
  • 25% of the labor force was chronically unemployed.
  • 1 million people were illiterate ( in a population of about 5.5 million).
  • 27% of urban children, not to speak of 61% of rural children, were not attending school.
  • Racial discrimination was widespread.
  • The public school system had deteriorated badly.
  • Corruption was endemic; anyone could be bought, from a Supreme Court judge to a cop.
  • Police brutality and torture were common.

    ___



    After the 1959 revolution


    “It is in some sense almost an anti-model,” according to Eric Swanson, the programme manager for the Bank’s Development Data Group, which compiled the WDI, a tome of almost 400 pages covering scores of economic, social, and environmental indicators.

    Indeed, Cuba is living proof in many ways that the Bank’s dictum that economic growth is a pre-condition for improving the lives of the poor is over-stated, if not, downright wrong.

    -

    It has reduced its infant mortality rate from 11 per 1,000 births in 1990 to seven in 1999, which places it firmly in the ranks of the western industrialised nations. It now stands at six, according to Jo Ritzen, the Bank’s Vice President for Development Policy, who visited Cuba privately several months ago to see for himself.

    By comparison, the infant mortality rate for Argentina stood at 18 in 1999;

    Chile’s was down to ten; and Costa Rica, at 12. For the entire Latin American and Caribbean region as a whole, the average was 30 in 1999.

    Similarly, the mortality rate for children under the age of five in Cuba has fallen from 13 to eight per thousand over the decade. That figure is 50% lower than the rate in Chile, the Latin American country closest to Cuba’s achievement. For the region as a whole, the average was 38 in 1999.

    “Six for every 1,000 in infant mortality - the same level as Spain - is just unbelievable,” according to Ritzen, a former education minister in the Netherlands. “You observe it, and so you see that Cuba has done exceedingly well in the human development area.”

    Indeed, in Ritzen’s own field, the figures tell much the same story. Net primary enrolment for both girls and boys reached 100% in 1997, up from 92% in 1990. That was as high as most developed nations - higher even than the US rate and well above 80-90% rates achieved by the most advanced Latin American countries.

    “Even in education performance, Cuba’s is very much in tune with the developed world, and much higher than schools in, say, Argentina, Brazil, or Chile.”

    It is no wonder, in some ways. Public spending on education in Cuba amounts to about 6.7% of gross national income, twice the proportion in other Latin American and Caribbean countries and even Singapore.

    There were 12 primary school pupils for every Cuban teacher in 1997, a ratio that ranked with Sweden, rather than any other developing country. The Latin American and East Asian average was twice as high at 25 to one.

    The average youth (age 15-24) illiteracy rate in Latin America and the Caribbean stands at 7%. In Cuba, the rate is zero. In Latin America, where the average is 7%, only Uruguay approaches that achievement, with one percent youth illiteracy.

    “Cuba managed to reduce illiteracy from 40% to zero within ten years,” said Ritzen. “If Cuba shows that it is possible, it shifts the burden of proof to those who say it’s not possible.”

    Similarly, Cuba devoted 9.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP) during the 1990s to health care, roughly equivalent to Canada’s rate. Its ratio of 5.3 doctors per 1,000 people was the highest in the world.

    The question that these statistics pose, of course, is whether the Cuban experience can be replicated. The answer given here is probably not.

    “What does it, is the incredible dedication,” according to Wayne Smith, who was head of the US Interests Section in Havana in the late 1970s and early 1980s and has travelled to the island many times since.



    No one can say with any credibility that universal education and universal health care is forced on Cubans. Castro didn't give it to them. The Cuban people worked hard to create the infrastructure and systems that they felt were essential for any progressive system.

    Cubans wanted universal health care for all Cubans, and they have it. They pushed for government that represented their ideals, and organized and formed infrastructure that enabled Cubans to create a fair and complete h-c system.
    Cubans wanted universal education for all Cubans, and they have it. They pushed for government that represented their ideals, organized and formed infrastructure that enabled Cubans to create a complete and world class ed system, and they have it. Cubans want to assist the world's poor with doctors and educators, instead of gun ship diplomacy.. and that is what they have done WITH their government, not at odds with their government.

    Can Americans make this claim about their own country? I'm afraid not.


    Cubans want normalization between the US and Cuba, and they have thrown their doors open to us, but, it is our US government that prevents what the majority of Americans want their government to do - normalize relations. Worse yet, the US government forbids and has criminalized travel to Cuba by Americans - something that Cuba hasn't done.


    --

    To suggest that the Cuban people are not capable of determining their own future, and/or that one man has ruled Cuba with an iron fist for 40+ years against their will, is outright ignorant & blatantly bigoted.

    The Cuban people have proven, historically, their ability to quite readily overthrow any government of Cuba, including the brutal, fully US government and US organized crime backed Batista. To think that Cubans have just sat back after the revolution and allowed themselves to be dictated to is absurd. And an insult.

    Does Castro force one of the best education systems with the highest literacy rate on Cuba's children? Does Castro force one of the best universal health care systems on the Cuban people, resulting in the lowest infant mortality rate and the highest longevity rate in the West? Does Castro force the Cuban people to submit to a representative parliamentary democratic system?

    If you believe that Castro forces this on the Cuban people, then I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell ya.



    Here are some of the major parties in Cuba. The union parties hold the majority of seats in the Assembly.

    http://www.gksoft.com/govt/en/cu.html
    * Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) {Communist Party of Cuba}
    * Partido Demócrata Cristiano de Cuba (PDC) {Christian Democratic Party of Cuba} - Oswaldo Paya's Catholic party
    * Partido Solidaridad Democrática (PSD) {Democratic Solidarity Party}
    * Partido Social Revolucionario Democrático Cubano {Cuban Social Revolutionary Democratic Party}
    * Coordinadora Social Demócrata de Cuba (CSDC) {Social Democratic Coordination of Cuba}
    * Unión Liberal Cubana {Cuban Liberal Union}



    Plenty of info on this long thread,
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/cgi-bin/duforum/duboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=6300&forum=DCForumID70


    http://www.poptel.org.uk/cuba-solidarity/democracy.htm
    This system in Cuba is based upon universal adult suffrage for all those aged 16 and over. Nobody is excluded from voting, except convicted criminals or those who have left the country. Voter turnouts have usually been in the region of 95% of those eligible .

    There are direct elections to municipal, provincial and national assemblies, the latter represent Cuba's parliament.

    Electoral candidates are not chosen by small committees of political parties. No political party, including the Communist Party, is permitted to nominate or campaign for any given candidates.



    The Cuban government was reorganized (approved by popular vote) into a variant parliamentary system in 1976.

    You can read a short version of the Cuban system here,
    http://members.allstream.net/~dchris/CubaFAQDemocracy.html

    Or a long and detailed version here,
    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0968508405/qid=1053879619/sr=1-2/ref=sr_1_2/102-8821757-1670550?v=glance&s=books





    Viva Cuba!




    (BTW, I've been there many times (legally) for long durations, including witnessing the entire 1997-98 election season.)


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    eallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 10:20 AM
    Response to Reply #14
    20. Since you've been there, describe the mode of political debate.
    It's hard to look benignly on a political system that punishes or incarcerates those who publish opinion too much against the government, and where internet use is restricted by law. But maybe that is myth? Since you've visited quite a bit, tell us about the range of political opinion, how minority parties organize and get their views out, etc.
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    mitchtv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 02:08 PM
    Response to Reply #20
    21. I'd hate to think of what would happen to US citizens
    caught working with the Chinese/Russian/Israeli Embassies to overthrow the * govt. BTW, Political freedom is useless without health and education, (and food , which they didn't have before '59).
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    eallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 05:00 PM
    Response to Reply #21
    28. I guess I place more importance on political freedom than do you.
    Many political freedoms were won at times when individuals, for the most part, had to provide for their own health care and for their children's education. If we could get a really great health care system by giving up our freedom of speech, I would not make that trade. If I had a choice between giving up freedom of the press or public schools, I'd give up public schools.
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    noiretextatique Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 02:09 PM
    Response to Reply #20
    22. sounds a lot like the USA of late. eom
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    Mika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 05:51 PM
    Response to Reply #20
    29. Open (except for foreign backed political parties - just like the USA)
    Edited on Fri Jul-29-05 05:52 PM by Mika
    No political party nominates candidates in secret back room deals.

    Campaigns are run by unions, small and large affiliations, but they are not nominated by their respective parties. The slates are open to anyone and all (except felons). Nomination sessions/elections are open to all, and there is overwhelming participation. I have attended several nomination sessions/votes at several levels (but only citizens in their own district can vote).

    http://www.poptel.org.uk/cuba-solidarity/democracy.htm
    Electoral candidates are not chosen by small committees of political parties. No political party, including the Communist Party, is permitted to nominate or campaign for any given candidates.

    Nominated candidate's campaigns are publicly funded, not by private individuals nor corporations. The campaigns publish their platforms and debate points in various free publications and newspapers. All campaign publications can be picked up at all local election/registration offices.

    After being elected (and ratified by at least 50% +1 of the electorate in the subsequent ratification election) all candidates at all levels are subject to biannual accountability sessions, where a recall vote can be undertaken in any district at any level.

    ---

    The limitation to the internet is primarily financial (Cuba is poor). ISP accounts can be purchased, but because Cuba's bandwidth is very narrow (due to the lack of access to the inet backbone due to the Helms-Burton law and money) accounts are rather expensive and unaffordable to most. Internet access is available in the public libraries, and all Cubans have access to free email accounts. Cuba relies on its extensive infranet for a lot of its ed and healthcare interconnectedness.



    ---
    Here are some pictures of net connected computer schools/classes in Cuba taken by some friends.



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    eallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 06:19 PM
    Response to Reply #29
    34. So it's just a myth that Cuba government imposes Web content filters?
    The article below has a pretty interesting section on how Cuba is approaching the internet, including the limitations caused by US embargo, as well as the limits imposed by Castro's government:

    http://www.firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_9/taubman/

    When you were there, did you try using the web to browse anti-Castro sites in the US? I figure that would be a good test, to see if there is any content filtering.

    What are the anti-Castro in Cuba? There have to be a few radicals there. What are their political organizations?
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    SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-30-05 09:10 AM
    Response to Reply #29
    36. Those people sure don't look unhappy to me. n/t
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    KitchenWitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:37 PM
    Response to Original message
    15. Playground for the rich
    PNAC...etc
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    Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:40 PM
    Response to Original message
    16. Raul Castro will take over...
    ...and Cuba will continue to be a thorn in the side of the Yanqui imperialists.
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    bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 10:55 PM
    Response to Original message
    18. Big funeral, otherwise not much. nt
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    La Coliniere Donating Member (581 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-28-05 11:14 PM
    Response to Original message
    19. Politically. I can't say.
    All I know is that Cuban percussion bands are the greatest. Would love to visit some day to hear live music and go scuba diving. Supposedly the Cuban govt. has been protecting large portions of reef for some time now. As a result, many of Cuba's reefs are some of the healthiest in the Caribbean.
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    FreeStateDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 02:29 PM
    Response to Original message
    24. Could be a political disaster for repukes since they can't invade w/o
    Edited on Fri Jul-29-05 02:30 PM by FreeStateDemocrat
    incurring a level of moral outrage from the rest of the world that has not been heard since that other Nazi maniac invaded Poland. If the repukes don't go in they lose Florida in the following election cycle so they are damned if they do and damn if they don't. It appears to be up to the people living in Cuba to decide what they really want to have happen. I would suspect the Cubans would not peaceable allow an effort by the US to enforce a takeover by US based American-Cuban ex-patriots in seizing control of their country.
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    loudsue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 02:57 PM
    Response to Original message
    26. It'll become the 51st State, if the repukes/DLC have their way.
    Diplomatic relations will be opened with the Cuban government if the progressives in the U.S. have their way.

    :kick::kick::kick:
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    lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 03:11 PM
    Response to Original message
    27. It will sink due to global warming.
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    blindpig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-30-05 09:41 AM
    Response to Reply #27
    37. better check a topo map
    Much of Cuba will be above the water line when all of Florida and all of the US coast is swimming with the fishies.
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    lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-30-05 11:39 AM
    Response to Reply #37
    38. Well hell, Floridians will have to boat over there! We have many
    examples of creative boats now don't we!
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    ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 05:55 PM
    Response to Original message
    30. It Will Be Overrun By Real Estate Developers Within 24 Hours
    The real scum of the earth, real estate developers.
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    VOX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 05:59 PM
    Response to Original message
    33. Wal-Mart. n/t
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    Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-30-05 08:37 AM
    Response to Original message
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