Whle We Are Clubbing Each Other Over The Head Arnold Has Opened A 15% Lead

[DemocratSinceBirth]

over Bustamante....

[tjdee]

1. That's because Bustamante wants "tough love".

I watched much of the debate, and when I heard that Bustamante wanted to institute some kind of "tough love" program...are all the voters in California teenagers?

All of them were ridiculous during that debate (Camejo was alright), but Bustamante didn't do himself any favors.

Can't really explain Arnold's support though.

Lord, let's just hope the recall fails. That's what I came away with. What are the numbers on that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Awful

For Reacall - -63%

Against Recall -35%

[Romberry]

5. Source?

Please.

[TSIAS]

7. I found the link

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/09/28/recall.poll/index.html

[DemPopulist]

12. Oh, Gallup

Still looks bullshitty to me. I don't buy it.

[nolabels]

45. Expecting or paying for answers, Polling and its falsehoods

http://www.ffrf.org/fttoday/back/survey.html

Survey Reveals Polling Bias
By Dan Barker

Many have suspected it, but now there's proof: Americans are not as religious as the polls report.
Only half of those who say they regularly attend church actually do!

According to the traditional polls, 40% of the United States population reports attending church regularly. This figure has held remarkably constant for decades. Responding to a 1992 Gallup poll asking, "Did you, yourself, happen to attend church or synagogue in the last seven days?" 42% of adult Americans said "Yes."

But a new study questions this prevailing wisdom. "What The Polls Don't Show: A Closer Look At U.S. Church Attendance" was published in the December 1993 American Sociological Review, casting serious doubt on the supposedly high rate of regular church attendance. The authors are C. Kirk Hadaway (United Church Board for Homeland Ministries and Adjunct Faculty at Hartford Seminary), Penny Long Marler (Assistant Professor of Religion at Samford University), and Mark Chaves (Assistant Professor of Sociology at the University of Notre Dame).

"In the sociological literature," the three scholars write, "this high participation rate <40%> is prominently and widely cited to bolster attacks against the secularization hypothesis." They give widespread examples of this "social fact" in sociology texts, history texts, and journalism.

But many observers have doubted this characterization of high American religiosity--it doesn't seem to square with reality. This is especially true among many "old-line" Protestant denominations that have experienced membership losses and slowing growth rates the past few decades.
(snip)

I am still trying to get a handle on BBV, anybody think its already happened to us?

[DemPopulist]

8. Is this a KABC(?)/Survey USA poll?

They always have numbers like that.

[KittyWampus]

58. I Sincerely Believe This Poll Is Bogus

That CNN knows it's bogus
That they are doing this to make it seem entirely plausible when they throw the election to Arnold.

[ComerPerro]

6. I can explain Arnold's support

He is famous. People love him because he is a terrible actor in awful movies. He is their God, and now he is running for governor.

[SammyWinstonJack]

23. Kinda like Reagan

"He is famous. People love him because he is a terrible actor in awful movies. He is their God, and now he is running for governor." Please California, Don't get fooled again!

[ComerPerro]

25. Exactly like Reagan

I wouldn't give a crap about this if it weren't for the fact that Arnold scares the crap out of me.
He is a complete tool (like Bush and Reagan), he will enable Bush to win California, and he will someday be President.

[diplomats]

26. Arnold can't become president unless they amend the Constitution

but he scares me, too.

[LittleApple81]

38. GEORGE CLOONEY WILL WIN!

I read another thread in DU today where people said the would vote for Clooney... and he is not running.
The American voter is almost lost. And the press says that California is really interested in the recall!!!!

[Gin]

11. Polls can be manipulated...I made some calls for Moveon.org

this weekend to Califfornia voters. I have no idea which way this thing will go.

If enough voters "vote" first of all, and then vote no..Davis has a chance. Several were pissed off at the circus this thing has created.

Arnold has no idea of what he is getting into. If he wins, he deserves every rotten minute he gets. All he knows is pumping iron and female genitalia. When you htink of it, why would the rethuglicans even endorse him? They must think he is a puppet like george and they will pull his strings.

[TSIAS]

3. Which poll is this?

I haven't seen the polls put out after the debate. I'm shocked Arnold is this far ahead, especially with McClintock still in it.

[goobergunch]

4. Which polling agency reported this? (n/t)

[TSIAS]

9. CNN/USA Today/Gallup

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. CNN Gallup

I'm watching CNN Late Edition...

I think Arnold's going to win....

What an awful prospect......

The upside is CA's ungovernable....

[Imajika]

15. Yup

Its been pretty clear for awhile now.

Davis is out. He is just too unpopular.

Arnold looks to me like he is probably going to win.

Cruz didn't do himself any great favors in the debate - tough love doesn't sell well.

Imajika

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I'm Prepared

for the Arnold victory so the result won't be as shocking and depressing....

00 sucked cuz the final polls had me convinced Gore coul win.....

Hope dashed is worse than no hope at all....

[diplomats]

19. I still think the Dem candidate will win Calif. in 2004

but if Arnold wins that's a huge embarrassment for our party. Bad news all the way around.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. The Mother Of All Embarassments

The Pukes stole the governorship of the largest state in the Union....

I'm beginning to think we're doomed .....

[Darth_Kitten]

13. On CNN......

where was Davis' numbers? Arnie at 40 and then Bustamante at 25%?

Arnie at 40%? I guess Californians must not care about possibly electing a muddle headed, lame brained misogynist into office.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. It's The Star Patina.....

[Marlie]

18. This is a bad sign

If a large democratic State like California is willing to forfeit
power to the right wing, which Arnold stands for, our country really
does need a wake up call. This is too disturbing - after he takes
office, Arnold will show his true colors, just another pawn on Rove's
power chess board.

[noiretextatique]

17. don't believe the hype

i don't.

[Darth_Kitten]

20. I almost do!

:) that's because I think there are alot of very stupid people out there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Believing The Hype And Liking It Are Two Different Things...

I will wait for more data but I wouldn't bet the farm on a Bustamante or Davis win...


I'd say thank God I don't live in Cali but Jeb Bush is my governor....

[noiretextatique]

27. i don't believe arnold will win

and i don't believe the hype at all. and i do live in california.

[MoonRiver]

22. Is all of America hell bent on self-destruction?

Considering the madness in California; freepers calling for Civil War and genocide against liberals; * being able to decimate the economy, send soldiers to fight a war for proven lies yet still getting a 50% approval rating, instead of being under arrest; and the hate fest going on at DU between Dem activits (with a lot of help from the right), it would seem so. :crazy:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. That's How Hitler Came To Power.....

The left self destructed over fraticidal differences rather than form a common front....

I have said numerous times on this board I'll support Democrats to the left or right of me because the alternative is so unattractive...

[MoonRiver]

29. Yes, and when you add in the well oiled and corrupt rightwing machine,

this country might just be screwed. This bickering on DU will amount to a hill of beans if our votes disappear into cyberspace. All our passionate political activism may amount to nothing more than an exercise in futility, sad to say.

[janx]

28. I just want this stupid election to be OVER.

I'm tired of hearing about it all the time.

Thank God it's only now nine days away!

[warrior1]

31. The only numbers that count

Are people who are registered in California and who will vote. Those numbers mean nothing.

[qanda]

30. Good!

Maybe it will wake people up around here to stop fighting each other and go after the bad guys. This forum is getting ridiculous! I have to go over to Free Republic to find out what Bush* is doing wrong anymore. It's all, "Clark is evil!"-- all the time!

[Imajika]

32. Wasn't Bill Clinton...

...trying to help Davis at some point? I thought Clinton was campaigning against the recall? Was he just not getting through to the people of California, or has everyone mostly given up on Davis as a lost cause at this point?

It does seem clear that Davis is out and Arnold is probably in, I am just a little surprised how easy it has been for the GOP to pull this off.

Would be interesting to hear from some DUers in California on what the current mood is and how this has happened.

Imajika

[noiretextatique]

34. i don't buy it...i don't buy this arnold is in stuff

but i live in northern california. arnold is a joke here.

[maveric]

36. Down here in San Diego people cant wait till he's elected.

And the TV news staions run stories on him with this starry eyed look in their eyes. Its disgusting!

For the life of me,I cant figure out why people arent seeing through Ah-Nold for the moronic shill that he really is. He's a fucking cartoon character with no real plan or experience.

When I ask the pro- Ah-Nold group why they think that the groping austrian beefcake will make a good governor, all that they can say is that "he cant do any worse that Davis". Or' "He'll fix the state up". Ask them "how" and they pretty much say "He just will".
My God people are stupid around here!

I may move back to MA if he is elected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Arnold=Pete Wilson With Muscles

NT

[diplomats]

44. That's obviously the biggest problem

because Davis is so unpopular people are willing to take a flyer on someone without even hearing details on what he would do. I have no idea how to overcome that. Since we can't improve Davis' popularity, it seems hopeless.

[knight_of_the_star]

54. That's what I've heard too

SoCal loves him for some f*cked up reason that I do not understand. Good thing one of my friends who supports him isn't registered to vote. I think the big reason that he has so much support down here in San Diego County is because people here DO NOT like Bustamante because of his ties to MECHA. They want someone who can win that is not Bustamante or Davis. I just hope that doesn't happen. Only reason I'm not going anywhere if he wins is because:

1.) I plan to start a recall of Ahnuld if he wins as soon as he starts to fuck up.

2.) I'm not jumping off of this ship until it is going under with no hope of being saved

3.) I lack the money to move out of here anyway

4.) I haven't finished college yet :(

I personally plan to do what I can to make Ahnuld's life in Sacremento a political nightmare. I think starting a new recall 6 months into his administration as soon as it becomes clear that HE CAN'T RUN CALIFORNIA would do nicely.

[Timefortruth]

43. It looks bad.

It is hard to have perspective, but it looks like it's time to say hello to Governor Arnold.

There is something seriously wrong in America today. If people are stupid enough to vote him in that means they may be stupid enough to reelect Chimp. The public just doesn't get it, maybe they never will.

[diplomats]

46. I'm a little more optimistic about 2004

Arnold is running against a very popular incumbent which is a huge advantage for him. Bush IS the incumbent, and 2004 will be a referendum on him.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

33. The poll is based on half of all likely voters voting

I really doubt that will be the case alhough I could be wrong. People still need to show up on election day and pull the lever.

I am certainly operating as though that is the case...one can never say anything is handled.


I fully expected the media to hype Arnold but I have to have faith in the Dem base in the state...and motivate them to vote.

Many of us have already voted by absentee ballot and I suspect that there was lots of resistance to participation in the polls as well.

[VolcanoJen]

39. Very upsetting.

I do wish we could, in the short-term, concentrate our efforts on defeating the recall. We can return, in short order, to our candidate bashing, just as soon as we accomplish our goals in this all-important Republican set-up "election."

Dismayed in Ohio,
Jennifer :-(

[DemCam]

41. The pitiful power

of the Media and The Star.

This is why we need a candidate for President who can claim those dimensions.

I just finished Blumenthal's "Clinton Wars" and went to bed sickened by what the media did to squash Gore and how they created a star, tho faux, out of flim-flam.

Give 'em that ol' Razzle Dazzle!

[VolcanoJen]

55. Razzle Dazzle 'em...

Although I'd seen Chicago on the stage, the real gist of that piece didn't hit home until I saw the movie. It's completely indicative of the politics of personal destruction and absolute distraction that exists today.

Blumenthal's book was illuminating, even if you lived through it, wasn't it????

In my opinion, the defeat of the recall, and of the Republican's third attempt* in recent history to overthrow the results of a popular election, should be our #1 priority around here. Unfortunately, it is not, and I don't even freaking live in California.

:-(
- Jennifer

* 1. Clinton "impeachment"
2. 2000 Presidential "Election"
3. California Recall

[IndianaGreen]

40. I question this poll

As long as the GOP is splitting the votes between Arnold and McClintock, there is no way that we could lose the recall. For this poll to be valid, it would mean that many Democrats have switched their vote to Arnold, a highly unlikely event!

[DemCam]

42. I wish I could.

Unfortunately, 15% "ain't too close to call".

I feel the oncoming train. Just glad I don't live in California. Had much rather be subject to, as Davis was described by a California friend, a "wet rag" than .......

Ick!

[Timefortruth]

49. Sad but true.

It is time to get used to the idea, unless you're in California where you need to get out and work. The fat lady hasn't sung yet!

[Imajika]

47. Perhaps...

..you underestimate the level of animosity voters in California feel towards Davis?

"For this poll to be valid, it would mean that many Democrats have switched their vote to Arnold, a highly unlikely event!"

IG, I have seen you posting on DU for what seems like a couple years now - you should know better than to make the statement you just made. If you are a political junkie you should know that it is not unusual at all for many of those whom consider themselves Democrats to vote for Republicans and vice versa. Most voters are just not as committed to party or ideology as people who take the time to post on political message forums such as this one.

Massachusettes is, for the most part, a liberal state. That has not stopped the people from voting for Weld and Romney. Virginia is mostly a conservative state, yet it has elected plenty of Democrats including our current governor. You could go all over America and find states that are generally considered left of center voting for Republicans from time to time, and you can find right of center states voting for Democrats often too.

What is likely is that Californians mostly have just had it with Davis. They don't like him. Cruz did not do to well in the debate and thus didn't help his chances. Arnold is an empty shell backed by the corporations and business community, but it seems that a majority of the people would be willing to risk an Arnold S. administration rather than deal with Davis or anyone associated with him for much longer.

Sad state of affairs. Such is life.

Imajika

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

48. That's the problem with people who don't live in my state commenting

Much like some Hoosiers who had a bit of a problem when certain DU'er acted as though he knew more about your state.

Arnold is peeling Dem support from the MORON middle by acting benign even though he is nothing more than Pete Wilson reincarnated.

We have the same problem with moderate Dems in California that the entire nation has. California has a lot of rural areas and in Hollywood where people will suck your dick if they think they can get a gig out it of many are flocking around Arnold for what they perceive to be a career boost.

[nolabels]

56. Cynically, was that what the blue dress represented?

I find my self at odds with this issue, free speech and what amounts to ever more slime being broadcast on public air waves. I mean the international corporate entertainment industry gets to use this multi-billion dollar monopoly franchise basically for free, at least they could do is show a little taste

I am sitting at home last night watching a movie watching “Matilda” which was is kind of billed as a childrens venue (that even had some adult themes, as well), and then some commercial break comes on and we see some promo of misbehaved dog trying to have coitus with some persons leg. This really is highbrow stuff, it no wonder I don’t spend too much time with that boob tube. (last night’s teevee was only an appeasement to my wife btw)

[West Coast Democrat]

50. Another Poll Shows a Closer Race-a 4 pt. Difference

A California Chamber of Commerce poll showed Schwarzenegger ahead of Bustamante, 35 percent to 31 percent, with McClintock at 17 percent. The poll of 807 likely voters on Wednesday and Thursday had a 3.5 percent plus or minus error probability.

(near the bottom of this article)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7B00BCBEA3-0AE3-4298-BB84-D1D4F890C6D1%7D&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo

[noiretextatique]

52. this seems more accurate

thanks for posting it. and i agree with nsma...all the gloom and doom is getting rather tiresome.

[jiacinto]

51. Well then

There is not much that can be done.

[goobergunch]

53. This poll might not be reliable in this case

Sunday's results are the first CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll numbers in the California recall campaign.

Earlier polls conducted by other organizations have shown a much closer race between Schwarzenegger and Bustamante and less support for the recall.

[Junkdrawer]

61. Fixed polls are required if you're to fix elections....

Simply fixing voting machines is not enough to throw elections - at least not in the long term. In order to control populations, it is necessary to produce the appearance that the election is a confirmation of the polls and vice versa. Most critical are the polls a week or less out from the vote.

And so in California, we see independent polls consistently showing Bustamante with a five to ten point lead over Schwarznegger, until the CNN/Gallop/USA Today poll the shows Schwarznegger with a handy 15 point lead. So now if Schwarznegger wins, hardly anyone will think twice about the new voting equipment.

I think this will be a feature of our election from here in: fairly honest polls most of the time and amazing changes in the polls a week out from the election - with the elections verifying the polls.

[LunaC]

57. Relax!

This may be enough to kick-start the pissed off Dems to get off their asses and VOTE!

It ain't over 'til it's over!

[CMT]

59. this is awful

what has Arnold done to cause such a hike in support? I agree Bustamante has not been inspiring, but Arnold??? and Davis seems to have been coming on strong. I don't trust this poll.

[mlawson]

60. No surprise! Ah-nold will win handily.

I've said it all along. He plainly appeals to those who have never before voted, and hopefully never will again!

[swinney]

62. No Fear--Arnold RECALL JUST AROUND CORNER.

RECALL PETITION WILL START AS SOON AS HE IS SWORN IN IF HE IS SWORN IN.

THEN REPUGS WILL GO NUTTO. UNDEMOCRATIC!REVENGE! NOT FAIR!