Peak Oil Report Draws Disturbing Conclusions

[Athame]

US Govt Sponsored Peak Oil Report Draws Disturbing Conclusions

By Michael J. DesLauriers
29 Jul 2005 at 10:46 PM EDT


TORONTO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- A 67-page report released earlier this year on the subject of Peak Oil and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy drew several conclusions:

1. World Oil Peaking is Going to Happen
2. Oil Peaking Could Cost the U.S. Economy Dearly
3. Oil Peaking Presents a Unique Challenge (“it will be abrupt and revolutionary”)
4. The Problem is Liquid Fuels (growth in demand mainly from transportation sector)
5. Mitigation Efforts Will Require Substantial Time
6. Both Supply and Demand Will Require Attention
7. It Is a Matter of Risk Management (mitigating action must come before the peak)
8. Government Intervention Will be Required
9. Economic Upheaval is Not Inevitable (“given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.”)
10. More Information is Needed

Based on the report (Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management) we are probably in quite a bit of trouble if, as some analysts suggest, peak oil is already upon us. The study was led by Dr. Robert Hirsch who is a Senior Energy Program Advisor at SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation), and who has had a long career in Energy milieu in a variety of important positions.

3 Scenarios

The study envisions three scenarios for dealing with a peak oil reality: scenario one involves action not taken until peaking occurs, and scenarios two and three deal with action taken ten and twenty years prior thereto. The conclusions follow:

Resource Investor, Canada

I just thought it was time for a Peak Oil reminder :think:

[don954]

1. well, if Shell and Cheveron Oil are right,

its too late for all scenarios but:
"Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades."

[Athame]

6. significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades

Just a mildly alarming statement, lacking all real life impact.

That's why my sig line is:

[BlueEyedSon]

2. There is a peak oil group here on du, maybe x-post there too!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=266

[Athame]

3. Thanks, I will post in Peak Oil group

I have not been active in that group, though I follow this issue closely. I think that many people need to see these general issues and the groups tend to be for those who already have a good background. This article from Canada Investors' Resource is an unusual source and shows that the folks with the $$$ are paying attention. In other words, not From the Wilderness... though a mite optimistic, IMHO.

[Old and In the Way]

4. US Department of Energy?

The same Department that Reagan/Bush de-emphasized in 1980 by taking away it's cabinet level status? The same group of oilman who kept us oil-dependent as our only energy policy for the past 25 years?

I hope the American people remember just how much the Bush/Big Oil partnership profited from their Saudi relationships...at our longterm expense.

[Athame]

5. Well, exactly, maybe this report is in Cheney's dungeon

There certainly hasn't been much talk about it by the BFEE.

Carter tried, and paid a huge political price for trying to wean us from oil dependency. In this case, "I told you so" won't bring much satisfaction, I'm afraid.

[bananas]

7. maybe they will name it back to "Dept of Atomic Energy"

[wli]

8. peak oil was probably a few years ago

i.e. we in deep doo doo now