Big skew between Newsweek's latest telephone poll and on-line poll

[gristy]

Go here to participate: http://www.msnbc.com/news/972700.asp

The NEWSWEEK telephone poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates, which interviewed 1,004 adults by telephone on Sept. 25 and 26. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For those questions which surveyed registered voters, 821 people were interviewed, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For those questions which surveyed Democrats and Democratic leaners, 273 people were interviewed and the margin of error is plus or minus 7 percentage points. 4967 web site responses
* Percentages may not total to 100% for each question due to non-responses

1. Do you approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
..............on-line...Newsweek
Yes.............19%.......52%
No..............80%.......40%
Don't know......1%........8%

Now some questions for you DUers.

1. Why is *'s on-line approval rating so MUCH lower than the telephone poll? I know it's always been lower, but is this spread even larger this time?
2. Are the telephone poll results skewed because they can only question people who actually answer the phone? Is it possible that for some reason people who still answer their phone tend to be republicans? Or otherwise clueless?

ON EDIT: Be sure to consider question number 2 also! I'm suggesting a possible reason the telephone poll might be skewed (regardless of the problems of on-line polls). What do you think?

[Sean Reynolds]

1. Demographics?

As well as online polls aren't scientific because there are ways to vote twice.

[patdem]

2. Out of 1,004 adults only 273 were or leaned Democratic????

I see no mention of how many were or leaned reupublican???

On Edit: How can 52% approve of his job

When 50% say the economy/jobs is the most important and give bush* disapproval of economy 55%???That is a contradiction of their own vote.

and only 47% approve of the way he is handeling Iraq...How does he come off with a 52% approval???

Though the online poll may be skewered it at least is consistant across the board.

[boxster]

3. Hehe - it should be obvious.

We nailed that poll. It was posted on here at least a couple of times, and I'm sure we "DU'd" it!

[FlashHarry]

4. Online polls are totally unscientific.

They should be treated as entertainment, rather than hard polling. As we know, they are often 'Freeped,' either by 'them' or by 'us.' (I'm as guilty as the next guy. I fully admit to voting in online polls.)

I would guess the phone poll is somewhat accurate. This country is full of 'Joe Sixpacks' who still think the Chimp is doing a swell job. Watch for his numbers to decline, though, as the media finally starts calling him on his bullsh*t. (the CIA investigation looks like it might actually have legs.)

[Robbien]

5. People online gets news. People not online get propaganda.

I was without access for almost all of last week and kept wondering what was really going on in the world. Shows being called news should be sued for false advertising.

[cliss]

6. I guess that means

every breathing member of the DU jumped on the poll and voted, and skewed the figures.

I did.

[starroute]

7. Polling techniques always get outdated in time

With such a small sample, they have to be based on simplifying assumptions that may be true when they're adopted but ultimately stop working.

The prediction that Dewey would beat Truman was based largely on a skewed poll. I think there may have been an earlier case, perhaps in 1932 or 1936, when a presidential poll was wildly inaccurate because it was based on a biased sample.

In the present situation, I tend to agree with suggestion #2 that telephone polls are no longer representative. Perhaps many Americans are working too hard to have time for pollsters. Perhaps the more left-wing Americans are too paranoid to admit their true political feelings to random strangers.

But I've been watching the online polls for a while, and a year ago they were far closer to the telephone poll results. Something is definitely going on.