Scientific advancement.....same as it ever was

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

http://www.cohenufo.org/Hynek/hynk_21yrs_rprts.htm
Indeed, I would like to say a word about scientific methodology as it pertains to this problem. I have discussed this at length with the noted Canadian philosopher of science, Thomas Goudge.

"One of the most interesting facets of the UFO question to me," Goudge writes, "is its bearing on the problem of how science advances. Roughly I would say that a necessary condition of scientific advance is that allowance must be made for (a) genuinely new empirical observations and (b) new explanation schemes, including new basic concepts and new laws." Goudge notes that throughout history any successful explanation scheme, including twentieth-century physics, acts somewhat like an "establishment" and tends to resist genuinely new empirical observations, particularly when they have not been generated within the accepted framework of that scheme - as, for instance, the reluctance to accept meteorites, fossils, the circulation of the blood, and, in our time, ball lighting. History is replete with such examples. When the establishment does accept such new observations it often tends to assimilate them into the going framework - as, for instance, the attempt to admit the existence of meteorites as stones that had been struck by lightning. "Hence," Goudge concludes, "the present establishment view that UFO phenomena are either not really scientific data at all (or at any rate, not data for physics) or else are nothing but misperceptions of familiar objects, events, etc. To take this approach is surely to reject a necessary condition of scientific advance" <1>.

We will never know whether UFO reports represent genuinely new empirical observations if we continue the type of logical fallacy illustrated by the Air Force analysis of a radar-visual UFO report from Kirtland Air Force Base, Albuquerque, New Mexico, in 1957. Two witnesses in the control tower reported at 11:00 p.m. that an object, which looked (through binoculars) like a lighted, up-ended automobile, came within 200 feet of the ground when it disappeared behind a fence in a highly restricted area, easily visible from the control tower, then rose abruptly at very high angular rate and disappeared. It was observed visually for about six minutes, about half of that tinle through binoculars, and tracked in part by radar. The report of the Air Force officer who investigated this case, which is in the Bluebook file, states:

The two sources are Airways Operations Specialists with a total of 23 years experience. Both were on duty in the control tower at Kirtland Air Force Base when the sighting was made - both appeared to he mature and well poised individuals, apparently of well above average intelligence, and temperamentally well qualified for the demanding requirements of control tower operators. Although completely cooperative and willing to answer any question, both sources appeared to be slightly embarrassed that they could not identify or offer an explanation of the object which they are unshakably convinced they saw. In the opinion of the interviewer, both sources are completely competent and reliable.

Project Bluebook explained this sighting as that of an aircraft; and gave the following specific reasons:

1. The observers are considered competent and reliable sources and in the opinion of the interviewer actually saw an object they could not identify.
2. The object was tracked on a radar scope by a competent operator.
3. The object does not meet identification criteria for any other phenomenon.

So, the witnesses were solid, the radar operator competent, and the object unidentifiable as any other phenomenon; therefore the object had to be an aircraft. Clearly, if such reasoning is applied to all UFO reports we can hardly expect to find out whether any genuinely new empirical observations exist to be explained. Schroedinger, the father of quantum mechanics, wrote: "The first requirement of a scientist is that he be curious; he must be capable of being astonished, and eager to find out." Perhaps he should have added, "and be ready to examine data even when presented in a bewildering and confusing form."

There is much in tile UFO problem to be astonished about - and much to be confused about, too. Such confusion is understandable. Over the past twenty years I have had so many experiences with crackpots, visionaries, and religious fanatics that I hardly need be reminded of people who espouse the idea of UFO's as visitors from outer space for their own peculiar purposes. You will note that I say "espouse the idea," not "make UFO reports." Very rarely do members of the lunatic fringe make UFO reports. There are many reasons for this; primarily it is simply that they are incapable of composing an articulate, factual, and objective report.

In addition to being fully aware of the cultists, and how they muddy the waters even though they don't generate UFO sightings, I am also well aware of the widespread ignorance, on the part of many, of astronomical objects, high-altitude balloons, special air missions, mirages, and special meteorological effects, and of people's willingness to ascribe their views of such things to the presence of something mysterious. These people, in contrast to the crackpots, are far more of a problem because they do generate UFO reports which represent a high noise level - so high, in fact, that many who have not looked carefully into the matter feel that all UFO reports stem from such misperceptions. In actual fact it is relatively simple for an experienced investigator to sort out and quickly eliminate virtually all of the misperception cases.

It is a pity that people so often are not well-informed, objective, and accurate reporters; since 1948 I have become only too familiar with UFO reports spawned by Venus, twinkling stars, aircraft, and the like. Some eighteen years before the Condon committee was formed I was already aware that the great majority of UFO reports are nothing more than misperceptions by the uninformed. Of course, these misperceptions must be deleted before any serious study of the UFO question can begin. From this point on, I am speaking only of UFO reports which _remain_ unexplained by trained investigators; only then are we truly dealing with something that is unidentified by people capable of making an identification. In short, an original UFO report must pass through a "narrow band-pass filter" before it qualifies as worthy material for scientific study, the objective of which is to determine whether any genuinely new empirical observations exist. Only those reports which survive the running of this gauntlet can qualify. An objection to this approach immediately arises: Aren't we just rejecting everything but the tail-end of the distribution curve of human reactions to visual stimuli? I firmly agreed with this view (during my first years of association with the UFO problem, but now I question it. We can take the position that we are dealing with the vagaries of human perception only if we are dealing with a homogeneous set of observations. For instance, the distribution curve of fruit size in an apple orchard would have a significant tail at the large-fruit end if measurements of watermelons on the ground were included without noting the structural differences between apples and watermelons.

More.....http://www.cohenufo.org/Hynek/hynk_21yrs_rprts.htm