Whatever makes them think they could attack Iran?

[shraby]

We'd be sitting ducks over there. We can hardly supply our troops that are there now and we'd need many many more. The troops would have to be fighting the Iraqis and at the same time fending off the Iranians...not to mention if Syria hold up on their promise to Iran to help them if they are attacked.
Everything the troops need would have to be flown or shipped over, and every convoy would need protected.
Our oil and gas supplies would quickly dwindle for us here at home because we don't produce enough to wage a full scale war against a country that actually has a well equipped army.
Crashcart and company are absolutely nuts to think something like that could be pulled off successfully. It's frightening to think they believe they can get away with it.

[lonestarnot]

1. Oh ... just because they can.

It's a power high.

[Individualist]

2. Obsession with power combined with insanity

[wuushew]

3. Cut and run in Iraq followed by massive air strikes

They will bomb every suspected WMD facility from the air regardless of the lack of intel. Large scale uranium enrichment requires a good degree of electrical and support infrastructure which the neo-cons would attempt to take out along with the rest of the country.

[ewagner]

10. Air strikes followed by a

"popular uprising" to overthrow the regime and replace it with an "interim government" that will become a budding democracy....Haliburton will have the contracts....

[wuushew]

12. would the CIA fund that uprising effort?

The price tag might be somewhat steep for the agency, if Congress passes the Iran Liberation Act I might have a better sense of timing.

[Moochy]

22. Iran is more open than Iraq was

And do they have the human penetration necessary to pull it off?
Societally it's probably a simpler matter to groom a future despot than in Iraq where all our figureheads were drawn from the exile community.

[Canuckistanian]

24. ... and democrtitization spreads like wildfire!

Brilliant! But it was tried before... now where was that?

[shraby]

15. Do you think Iran is just going to sit there

and let us bomb them? I don't think so. They'll be taking out the missiles if they possible can, as well as the source of those missiles.

[Moochy]

20. I dont' know about Iran's ability to strike back at nuclear subs

I'm no military expert but I think we'd have the capacitty to "flood the zone" and the first step would be to destroy the AA capacity with stealth, and high altitude bombardments.

I dont' even know if cruise missles are very vulnerable to Iran's AA, they travel supersonic and have ground-hugging avionics. Anyone out there know their capacity?

I agree with your OP, that it's folly, but I'm only pointing out what one other person has said, that nowhere in any of the rumors has a fullscale invasion ever been mentioned.

[wuushew]

26. Sunburn missiles would be greatly handicapped by radar limitations

a coast mounted radar tower would only be able to see about 30 miles out into the gulf(depending on the height of both objects). The greater range of carrier aircraft and cruise missiles would be able in a series of stages gradually peel back the layered defenses that protect Iranian airspace. The SA-10 is a great defense system but if it was tasked protecting a high value site it would be targeted and eliminated by extreme range weapons or dedicated Wild Weasel aircraft.


Engagement radar range = visible horzion of tower + horizion distance of ship in natuatical miles

Nimitz Class top mast = 210 feet above sea level, 1.17*SQRT(210)= 16.9 nm
Iranian tower = 1,000 feet above sea level, 1.17*SQRT(1,000)= 36.9 nm

1 nm = 1.15 standard miles

[havocmom]

4. They don't care about the logistics and morality is not their strong suit.

They just do what they find profitable and leave others to pay the price. They face no consequences so they just don't give a fuck what it does to others.

I hope some military brass with brass balls turns the whole cabal over to the Hague for trials.

[mikehiggins]

5. Tactical nukes are the answer

What happens after that? The End of Days.

[kestrel91316]

6. The word for this is "hubris" nt

[tridim]

7. They're trying to start WW III

But they're too stupid to realize that no country is going to be on our side, except Israel. Everything from here on out is BushCo's scorched earth policy.

[aquart]

8. They are not reality-based.

They are empire-based. Remember? America is merely the "homeland."

[ThoughtCriminal]

9. They win in the Bible

According to their Doomsday Cult base.

[jody]

11. Ignorance of military strategy and tactics. We don't have the

logistics capability to sustain a successful ground assault. We can bomb them but that's all.

[oldleftguy]

13. Just do it at night, when no one is paying attention!

:bounce:

[ovidsen]

14. At the risk of repeating myself...

A US attack against Iran would be suicidal, for all the reasons you mention plus a few more.

Iran has about 3 times the population of Iraq, and a huge number of those people are under 30. Many young Iranians keep track of Western culture (clothes, music, films) but they are intensely patriotic. They will show no hesitation if asked to fight for their country. Plus, Iran doesn't have the sectarian strife Iraq has. The vast majority is Shia. The Sunni, Kurd and other minority communities are REALLY minority. And there is ample evidence that, unlike Saddam, some of Iran's leaders actively supported Al Quaeda and OBL (even though he's Sunni) in AQ's anti-US endeavors, and would almost look forward to a US attack.

Iran would make Iraq look like Panama. Or Grenada. Even if I were a war-mongering asshole who loathed Iran, I would be an idiot to back a war against it.

edit: improved spelling.

[Dave Reynolds]

16. Google "sunburn missile"

any naval vessel would be toast, this would all have to be done from the air and ground.

[Moochy]

30. Sunburned!

Thanks for that,
here is a link about sunburn from fas.org, so folks dont visit rense and think it's nonsense. :)

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/moskit.htm

Heres one thing though.. 250 km range, if its not launched from a plane, where are they going to be able to get close enough to the missle frigates and subs that would be launching the cruise missle attacks?

I think we have sufficient stand-off range to keep all of our ships outside of that weapons lethal range.

[Dave Reynolds]

33. Yeah, they could sit outside the kill range,

but the neck of the Persian Gulf would be sealed until all forward launch sites were taken out, and in that area of Iran they can be stashed fairly well due to mountains.

We live in interesting times, yah?

[Moochy]

17. No invasion just a big bombing campaign

None of the rumors of attacks have actually spelled out any Iraq style invasion. Everything I've seen on this rumor suggests an air bombing campaign with possible tactical nukes launched from cruise missles & subs in the gulf.

As the story goes, once the nuclear facilities are hit, (the excuse), and the countries leadership cirlce is dead, a coup of some kind would be fomented with US special-ops support. I dont buy any of it, but nothing in the Rumormill that I've seen says Cheney wants to invade with any substantial ground troops.

[walldude]

18. What's really messed up is that they think it will be

a hit and run. Like they thought Iraq was going to be. These assholes think they can drop a couple nukes or whatever and there will be no consequenses. They think Iran won't fight back. They have their heads so far up their asses that they are seriously discussing using nukes on a first strike basis . Insanity. If they manage to get away with the Plame outing, all bets will be off. They know what they did. If they are let off or pardoned for commiting treason, then it will embolden them far beyond what we have already been exposed to.

[Minstrel Boy]

19. They're not thinking about feet on the ground.

They're thinking about massive air strikes, including "tactical" nukes.

[Canuckistanian]

21. AND... Iran can fight back

Not like some other countries I could name....

[no_hypocrisy]

23. Here's why: Baaaaaaa!!! Baaaaaaaa!!! Baaaaaaaaaaaa!!!

[Lannes]

25. The time to be worried is just before their term ends

If they arent thrown out.They can start something that the next administration would have to finish.

[wli]

32. they'll start something to ensure their term in office never ends

They either go to jail or provoke someone else into nuking the US (or MIHOP as a pretext for nuking Iran) so they can declare martial law and never have to resign.

They're not going to step down voluntarily ever, because they know they'd be prosecuted.

ON EDIT: added parenthetical comment

[Lannes]

34. You may be right I wouldnt put it past them

Some of it could hinge on Fitzgerald.If he gives them a pass they may just start some shit and leave but if he makes some big name indictments your scenario would be very plausible.They still might do it regardless of the investigation's outcome.I guess we will have to wait and see.

[eridani]

27. They haven't given any thought to the effect bombing Iran would have==

==on Iraq, which now has a Shi'ite government making nice to Iran. Troops on the ground can barely handle the Sunni resistance. An attack on Iran will turn all the Shi'ites against them as well.

[jody]

28. Good point. n/t

[PowerToThePeople]

29. They think? I doubt they have enough brain cells to. n/t

[Dogmudgeon]

31. It will be easier this time

If there is "another 9-11", they will declare martial law, institute a draft, muster one million conscripts or more, and hit Iran with everything we have. Nukes will very likely be used on military installations.

At that point, the rest of central Asia will boil over. Shortly thereafter, so will America.

Pray it doesn't happen.

--p!