Odds stacked against Democrats in 2004

[Democrats unite]

By Greg Botelho
CNN New York


Pelosi faces an uphill struggle to return Democrats control of the House.

(CNN) -- Leading up to the 2004 election, the presidential race will get the most attention. But the stakes are also high in the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and statehouses across the country, where the GOP will try to bolster its slim advantages.

The president's party typically loses Congressional seats in mid-term elections, but that didn't hold true in 2002. With very visible and frequent campaigning by President Bush, Republicans broke the Senate deadlock and strengthened their grasp in the House.

Democrats hope to turn the tide in 2004 by targeting Bush and GOP congressmen on the lackluster economy and what they see as a deteriorating international situation.

But it won't be easy.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/general/stake.html


I don't think this has been posted yet. I find it very hard to believe. Or am i being to optimistic?

[alexwcovington]

1. "Deck" stacked against them

you can still win a rigged game

[jiacinto]

2. Look at 1998

The Democrats gained seats then too. And Bush won in 2000.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Carlos, come on. Bush won in 2000?

You just moved to Florida, didn't you? Well, we have a little history to teach you...

[aquart]

3. "What they see......"????????

Oh, that's funny. The destroyed economy, the looted treasury, the hopeless war is a Democratic perception problem.

Really hard to keep a straight face with that one.

CNN still eroding viewership?

[ShaneGR]

4. Redistricting

Has really hurt our chances of taking back control of the House in 04. Personally, I don't think it can be done until 06 or 08. It's not Pellossi's fault. Heck, only about 10-15 of the Republican seats could be viewed as competitive.

As for the Senate, we have a lot of seats to defend and perhaps only five or six competitive Republican seats. It could be done in 04, but I think it might not happen until 06 when the R's have a LOT more seats to defend. We'll see.

[THUNDER HANDS]

5. it's impossible to take back the House

only a miracle and an absolute voter revolution will propel the Dems back in control of the House.

There are only 40 seats that are competitive. They'd have to win 3/4 of them.

The senate is more likely, but it's a bad year for us there because we have more incumbants than the Republicans do who are up for re-election.

[whirlygigspin]

7. I'll take voter revolution

for $100, Alex.

[carpetbagger]

8. Seat by seat things don't look good, but a perfect campaign...

...one that seeks to join democrats and independents together with a positive message about what America can be, might just be able to shift the national tables about 3-4%. That's what it would take to get within about 3-5 seats. From there it becomes seat-by-seat.

[quaker bill]

9. Repugs has been busy redistricting

That will make it tougher. The seats here are pretty secure for the repugs.

Things are going to have to get worse than this for a Dem candidate to win.

A personal friend ran against John Mica. Mica spent about a million my friend about 10,000. He got +/- 40 percent in 2000. Dem's ran another candidate in 2002, he spent about a million to match up with Mica and got about 42% of the vote.

The Districts are well designed to keep these guys safe.

Locally we've got Feeney and Keller (Neo-cons hardcore). Both won with huge margins in 2002 against well funded and well known dem candidates. You may remember Feeney as the Speaker of the Fla House that was going to appoint his own slate of delegates to the Electoral College, if the supreme's did not settle FL in GWB's favor.

Keller on the other hand funded most of his campaign through the "Club for Growth".

Defeating anyone of these would be a very good sign. But it will be tough.