Why are Democrats voting for Arnold in California?

[CMT]

The latest Gallup poll on the California recall are very dire indeed. With a 63-35 percent margin favoring recalling Gray Davis and Arnold opening up a 15-point lead in the state with 40% for Arnold and 25% for Bustamante and 18% for McLintock. What is going on?

A few weeks ago the LA Times poll had the recall support down to 50/45 and Cruz Bustamante with a five-point lead. What caused such a sudden and unpredicted shift in voter sympathy? could it be the court order stopping the recall only to have it on again? Given that Democrats have a huge edge in registration in California it is clear that the recall and Arnold are getting significant Democratic support.

Look at it this way--California is often called a Democratic state, a liberal state--part of the so-called "left coast" yet the Democratic Governor is only getting the backing of a little more than a third of voters and our replacement candidate is getting the backing of only one in four people in the state according to Gallup. Heck, Cruz Bustamante is only breaking even among Latino voters with Arnold.

With all the proven stories showing Arnold as being insensitive to women (a better word for him would be pig) why in the hell is he leading among females in this "liberal" state?

Well, this article in the LA times indicates that Arianna is "reassesing" her role in the campaign (no indication what exactly that means or if she will support Davis and Cruz) and that Green Party candidate Peter Camejo said he is "staying in" the race but would "understand" if his supporters voted for Bustamante.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-recall29sep29234432,1,5778660.story?coll=la-headlines-politics

[Brucey]

1. The American sheeple have been trained to

worship celebrities, big strong white men, and machismo. Almost always the tallest man wins... in fact, the ratio of the candidates heights is nearly always reflected by the ratio of votes. (Please note that Gore is a wee bit taller than Bush and did receive a wee bit more votes). The CA election will follow the heights.

[CMT]

3. well I would think in a state like California

with two female Senators that there were more thinking people than your analysis would indicate.

[Skidmore]

4. What a concept...

so for a woman to win the presidency, she would have to either be very tall herself or run against a shorter man--which will never happen since the tallest man wins. My hope for the human race just died.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

22. Why isn't Bradley the POTUS then?

[Brucey]

38. He nearly made it. But I said "almost always." There are other factors.

[REP]

2. They're Lying?

I have way of knowing, only a hope. I do know that I lie when polled, and as a registered Independent, always vote for the looniest R in primaries, and then for D in the election.

[Lindsey]

5. I have no idea

I can't imagine why any Democrat would vote for a recall. This is disgusting.

[E Pluribus Unum]

10. They are voting for recall...

because people are flooding out of CA because of the mess
that Davis has made of the state

[CMT]

12. not as big of a mess as Bush has made of this country

Don't you think with Bush's $450 billion deficit that he should be recalled? The economy that Bush drove into the ground has affected many states including California. Finally people are waking up to Bush and his approval ratings are plummeting not only on the economy but about his lying to get us into Iraq and the price tag we have to pay for this folly.

[Le Taz Hot]

14. Wrong, Sparky

Bush's buddies from Enron made a mess of this state and it started with Republican WILSON deregulating energy. Now, go read a book fer chrissakes!

[maggrwaggr]

32. gee, I live here and I don't see people "flooding out"

where the hell do YOU live?

[cally]

35. Please go read the analysis

at www.sfgate.com. CA is actually doing better than other states. We have lost less jobs than others. Businesses are not leaving in droves. The tech industry tanked, but that was a national phenomena and had much to do with the * administration. * has always favored the oldtime industries like oil, utilities, banks, etc while Clinton/Gore promoted the newer industries like tech.

[haymaker]

51. Gee, you're so smart.

Thanks for your wisdom. Can you stay awhile and tell us what a great president the monkey-in-a-man-suit is? Please?

How about it? Can you stay and give us more pearls of wisdom gleaned from the purveyors of all that is truth? You know who they are. Come on, just give me something, I cannot think for myself and would love for you to do it for me.

[Hanuman]

57. Typical DU pig pile...

Guys:

While "sparky's" analysis may be pretty 2-dimensional, and while he's probably just a newbie-troll who signed up moments ago to "disrupt" the hallowed proceedings on this fine website...

He's actually not exactly wrong!

I won't even attempt to prove his claims (except to say Peter Ueberroth's statistics put the job loss of CA firms leaving the state at 300,000), but it is not actually the proof of these ideas that are the driving force behind the recall, but rather the perception. And the perception is pretty dire at this point.

Don't balme me, just tellin' ya.

[0rganism]

63. People can't remember that Enron and dereg were Pete Wilson's babies?

Davis is getting blamed for something that started years before he took office, like Clinton was blamed for the craziness in Mogadishu that Bush The Elder instigated.

This is the nation of lost memories.

[prolesunited]

6. Personally, I think the poll is faulty

and they are trying to manipulate the numbers to create a bandwagon effect. You get very few details from the methodology of their poll from the article, but it's clear they are polling all Californians, not likely voters.

From the article:
"The CNN-USA Today poll, conducted among 1,007 Californians between Thursday and Saturday, assumed a low turnout of 51% — lower than election officials expect — in determining which were the most likely voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, according to the pollsters."

In addition, they are assuming low voter turnout, lower than predicted. Why? Because lower voter turnout ALWAYS favors the Repugs. As has been proven time and again, if Dems GOTV, they win.

Rather than be discouraged, I would suggest Dems in California redouble their efforts and focus on strategies for getting people to the polls. This poll is just another attempt to portray an unstoppable force. What are the internals for the campaigns? That would be more telling.

[spooky3]

11. Torres on Today show this AM said they are very different

Internals are closer to 50-50 on the recall.

[Mairead]

13. Yep. 3 words: manufacturing of consent

Chomsky warned us.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

29. Bingo!!! "Manufacturing Consent"!

The "facist whore media" is doing just that!

[nolabels]

36. This is also very real

Do some real checking of what happened in Venezuela and Argentina. Corporate owned media along with a small oligarchy have done it there or in a process of doing it. Actually this is an old phenomenon in many countries and is just now appeared on the radar screen here. (Though some probably believe, maybe correctly) that it has always been here. They are having a harder time hiding it now, even though it appears on some levels they are getting away with it.

To the question on the title of the original post

Why are Democrats voting for Arnold in California?

ANSWER: WE ARE NOT VOTING FOR ARNOLD, the machines are!

Check out BBV

http://www.blackboxvoting.com/modules.php?name=News&new_topic=3

[mitchtv]

45. three words Motor Vehicle Tax

the roads are going to build themselves

[NicRic]

7. I dont get it either ?

I knew soon as I seen arnold had one of regan's team helping him ,that this is nothing more then another right wing attempt to take over a mostly Democrat state. The sad thing is apprently the voters are falling for it ! If arnold had so many great idea's on how to govern CA. ,why did he not run in the election just a short time ago ? Also if he had any sense of fairness ,he would have waited for the next election and ran .Basically this has oppertunist ,written all over it , he seen an oppertunity to take the Govenership , and right or wrong he went for it ! It appears that the lazy American non voter is going to get exactly what they deserve ,a goverment for the rich and by the rich ! Things just keep getting weirder and weirder, in this bizarro world .God help us all !

[Noordam]

8. The Touchscreen Fix is in

and they HAD to have polls that more or less support the FIXED outcome.

In Florida before the 2002 governor's race, McBride was plus or minus 1% of Bush in the polls leading up to the election. But on the election day or the day before ONE poll show Jebbie winning by over 10%. and guess what the final outcome was, over 10%.

[shance]

43. Have to say that was my first thought

Creating the illusion to support the outcome.

[Drifter]

9. Are they using ...

Diebold machines to do their polling ?

I have a hard time believing the polling trend has taken a 25% turn around. Wasn't Bustamonte ahead by 10% last week.

The debate was a take home test for Arnold. He is refusing a 1 on 1 debate with Davis. Davis wants to prove he is a better Governor than Arnold can even comprehend. Arnold is refusing. He says that Davis is the worst and has to be replaced, but will not face him head on.

CALIFORNIANS - This has nothing to do with the Governorship. Every state in the nation is in the same boat as California (so who is Governor is not going to change that). This recall election has EVERYTHING to do with 2004 and the election of the MOST corrupt pResident in US history.

CALIFORNIANS - PLEASE DO NOT LET THIS HAPPEN.

Cheers
Drifter

[TreasonousBastard]

15. I can't imagine why...

ANYBODY would vote for Ah-nuld.

It just boggles the mind, it does.

[im4edwards]

16. well hes not exactly the most conservative of republicans is he ?

hes left on many social issues and he wants to give people a break on taxes. if thats not a solid populist message in that state then what is ? cruz can only tell people he wants to rearrange taxes and add to them, how popular can that be ?

now we all know that they'll wind up with higher taxes since the legislature won't play ball with a governor who is so plainly contemptful of them but tell that to Joe Average and he's just say that Arnold will mow down opponents with his Hummer and karate kick and shoot his way to success... just like in the movies.

[CMT]

17. so the average voter is taken in with his macho screen persona?

very sad. By the way, I think Cruz has not been a very inspiring candidate either. I wish Loretta Sanchez, who flirted with running, would have instead.

[im4edwards]

24. the star power has some impact in California but not like "cut taxes"

The star power insured that people knew who you were talking about when the name was given. It could as easily have been a non-action star and had the same effect.

Its the combination of left on social, right on fiscal that appeals to Californians who have been getting their car taxes tripled and hearing that this is only the beginning.

Cruz has not done a good job but he was a little hamstrung in that he was viewed as a backstabber for running at all originally. He could not come out and campaign as be might normally have done due to the pretty unique circumstances of this whole recall thing. Especially being the Lt Gov. Perhaps Sanchez would have been less hobbled but Cruz has been working his way up and should be the first in line.

[haymaker]

52. Do you live in Cal?

Just curious.

[im4edwards]

56. nope, relatives and friends do

n/t

[ramapo]

18. Why would anyone vote for Arnold?

That's the question that I have.

This guy should be laughed out of the race. He refuses to participate in any meaningful debate. He has no experience. No record.

He's following the script from his handlers. Of course he's very good at it. After all he's a professional.

The voters of California buy this crap? At least Reagan had been involved for awhile before running as Governor.

I won't be surprised if Arnold winds up as Governor but I will be disgusted.

[im4edwards]

25. well to be fair he has done some politicla work out there and

in DC. Hes not a complete dillitant.

But I agree that he really has no business being a governor. Even working from a script he sucked at the "debate".

By the same token, we should be leary of presidential candidates with similar qualifications.

Glad I don't live out there.

[Hanuman]

58. Easy question / easy answer:

1. Star power.
2. Moderate.

[PATRICK]

19. What poll indeed

Wasn't this the "prestigious" CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll? That's what I thought I heard. And the numbers are so different from the last report and what Dem insiders(usually more eagerly honest than the GOP)have been saying. Arnold really looked THAT good during his free for all with Arianna? This 787 person sampling is based on 50% turnout projection. It is the first polling on the subject(probably the LAST too) taken over three days after the debate.

I keep remembering the long forgotten Drudge poll in 2000 which had Bush LEADING Gore. I had fun with that one right from its evilly absurd inception. Gore 65% Bush 83% with a margin of error somewhere in the San Andreas Fault.

And the Reagan/Carter debate spin. "He's not that dumb and scary."

But Californians have seen it all. I'd rather believe the vote is totally rigged.

[OKNancy]

20. It's the Jesse Ventura effect

Some people will vote Arnold because they think it's funny. It's a way of thumbing their nose at "politicians". Unfortunately they aren't thinking.

[shanti]

48. i think you're right

there are lots of folks who don't give a flying rat's azz about politics and will pull stupid stunts like this "just because".

[AmeriCanadian]

21. Largely, because Bustamante has promised Californians to ...

... Again raise their taxes, provide illegal aliens drivers licenses, take further measures to remove guns ownership from law abiding citizens.

... Hell, I would not want that anymore than you would.

[robbedvoter]

27. So, you know what Democrats want because?

You sound like one of them lifetimes dem to me!

[Hell Hath No Fury]

31. I'm a real lifelong...

Californian who will be voting "no" on the recall amd "yes" on Bustamante for the exact reasons you mentioned.

As will every other Dem I know.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

42. You are all over the map on this one in every thread

In one thread you are bashing Davis and promoting Bustamante...now you are bashing Bustamante...am I the only one who notices these contradictions?

[AmeriCanadian]

44. This is my point exactly !!!

... You're right nothingshocksmeanymore, as I've said on this and those other threads: These are the very reasons many Democrats are bailing on Davis and Bustamante both and voting for "Ahnuld".

... I'm not a Californian, but I have co-workers, friends and family that are.

... And this is what's coming out the State.

[Terwilliger]

50. If anybody votes for AHHnold Schwarzenegger, they're stupid

period...tell your friends and family "Don't be stupid"

[haymaker]

54. Dude, you have no "point"

You don't live here, and are just listening to the bullshit hype. What's my favorite ice cream flavor? And that of every Cal Dem as well. I mean, you have all the answers about us, right?

Geez.

:freak:

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

60. That is clearly NOT how you have framed your opinions in the other threads

I am certain of it.

[Loyal]

62. Rest easy

He's been tombstoned. :)

[shanti]

49. you are NOT alone!

n/t

[haymaker]

53. Another one,

All these people telling us Californians what we think and what we like.

Quick, what is my favorite ice cream flavor?

[Booberdawg]

23. I think that poll is crap

There was a Davis spokesman on MSNBC this morning disputing those results, also pointing out that this poll vastly differs with internal Democratic and Republican polls. They must have pulled this sample straight out of freeper town.

To be sure, I emailed my dad and his wife in California this morning to inquire about their thoughts on this recall. I want to make sure I've got time to sway their opinions if they plan to vote for the recall or for Arnold. I don't think my dad would fall for this - but think I'll just check to make sure .....

[maggrwaggr]

33. Yeah, they must have called 1000 people in Orange County

Seriously, in California, you can't just call random people out of the phone book, you have to do it by region, town, neighborhood, county, etc. The state is just WAY too diverse to do it any other way.

A thousand people in California is hardly a cross section of anything

[Castilleja]

26. I was watching a clip of him

being mobbed by people, and giving autographs. I think it is star-power. I think it overrides any other considerations or concerns about him.

[AP]

28. Local news/media (owned by huge corporations) is shamelessly promoting him

The lies are unbelievable.

One commentator on local news said that Arnold is refusing to debate because he would rather appeal directly to the people. A debate is a direct appeal to the people. Having totally controlled appearances in front of small groupls of people which are then reported in the most flattering of ways are NOT direct appeals to the people.

It is shocking the way big business is selling this guy to the public with lies.

[not systems]

30. Agree 150 percent

The airwar being waged by the sycophant media is intense.

Arnold plugged 24/7 and Bustamante being "Gored" big time.

Toss in the "Arnold is not that bad" crowd and things look bad.

[maggrwaggr]

34. it is weird. It has that same feeling as the statue falling down

in Baghdad, which is this: both are a 100% invented media construct. Like the media decides something is a foregone conclusion and then shows it thusly. Even if they're just makin' shit up.

[CMT]

37. true even on CNN or FOX

if they have a story on the recall they usually tell it from Arnold's persepctive and use him in the graphics.

The media likes to decide elections.

Also what about this? I'm reading the NOTE on ABC web page and Arnold is stumping all over the state and Davis is campaigning but Cruz Bustamante "no scheduled events today" the election is a week away and he is taking the day off?

[AP]

39. The Democrats are in an impossible position.

When Cruz does well, Davis goes down. When Cruz goes down, the no vote goes up.

If Cruz isn't campaigning today, it means they're focussing on winning the no vote today. They'll do some overnight polling and adjust the strategy tomorrow.

[SoCalDem]

40. The only people who "have voted" are the ones who voted early or by absent

The polls are skewed to represent Ahhhnold as more powerful than he is..

I am willing to wait and see who actually ends up governor.. Everyone I know is voting NO..

If 50.6 % vote NO, we are home free.. THAT'S what we need to focus on..

The ads that SHOULD be running would emphasize that ,

"outsiders are trying to overthrow our legally elected governor, and replace him with someone they can "work with".. Anyone remember Enron?? They really "worked us".....

[mitchtv]

46. it sure would be nice to see a Davis ad

I beleiv he's letting us down by notfighting for this job.In my part of the state it's only arnold all day. Im sure Davis could afford at least1 coomercial a day. What happened to the feinstein commercials? anyone see one? I'm beginning to think the "bustamante" card was a mistake and that Dianne was right and Loretta Sanchez was wrong. Bustamante is not doing a thing either and was a disappointment in the debates.

[Mari333]

41. maybe its those GOP Family Values

http://www.bartcop.com/arnie-playboy.htm

[shanti]

47. i don't know any dems that are voting for him

but there are a lot of pissed off people here in cali, so imo, all bets are off.

[nolabels]

55. Really only takes a few along with a majority of Repubs

The major swing vote of independents will do it; I just cannot see how putting in a total novice will ever help the republicans, other than assist bush on this side of the country. One thing for sure is if Arnie gets in, Hollywood and the Kennedy names will be trashed as far as California goes anyway.

They will loose much respect if things go like they are looking. I think my dog has more people skills than Arnie. Most of the Celebes are keeping closed mouth about it for fear of not getting that next job. Arnie is none the less piggy backing off the popularity of the industry he comes out of to get there. The onus is on many people but one thing is clear and for sure, is that the people putting this together are trying to rip off the general public, big time.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

59. POLL NUMBERS ARE SHIT....

I just watched a Bill Schneider piece on the recall and how Arnie has "surged" ahead and the mood for the recall is "overwhelming".

Problem is, the numbers and the questions he showed that were asked for this poll leave me CERTAIN this poll was bullshit.

He was talking about what made the difference, and said it was the debates. Said that 2/3 of Californians watched the debates and the numbers changed after that. Then he showed numbers between those who HAD and who HADN'T watched -- those who hadn't watched didn't change their opinions all that much.

He THEN said that the probable voters they talked to for this poll reported that McClintock was the winner by far of the debate!

He also mentioned that those who were unhappy with Davis most were those who were also unhappy with his signing of the immigrants' license order.

Here in CA all that information tells you one thing -- they were polling primary in CONSERVATIVE areas of the state, including those that house moderate/conservative democrats. (McClintock and illegal immigrants smack of Orange County.)

But the biggest pisser is this:

Schnieder then said that one of the things that the poll showed that turned off debate viewers/voters on Davis WAS THAT HE DIDN'T PARTICPATE IN THE DEBATE. Schieder reported they felt it made him look "cowardly".

Uhhhhh, excuse me, Davis is NOT a candidate therefore HE WAS FUCKING UNABLE TO PARTICIPATE IN A CANDIDATE DEBATE!!!!!

What the hell type of game are they playing at? Why was something like that included in a "poll"?

[nolabels]

61. Its like a football or basket ball game, they take a couple or even....

a few players to take out your best guy then they match there scrubs against the rest of your guys.

Davis beat them at their own game last election and they couldn't handle it. If we have to play the recall election again things really could start looking really ugly, soon as people start figuring more of it out.

Davis was duped in some ways but the main perpetrators live around the beltway and in Texas. There are lot more potential Democratic voters in California than there ever was.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

64. Great thread on poll numbers!

Be sure to check it out here!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=433761