Watch CHINA...

[BabboonBush]

In the coming days, do not be surprised to see China make some drastic military and economic moves. China is a fast-growing country, and they need to secure a greater volume of oil for their growing population. Their recent defeat in the UNOCAL takeover bid caused bitterness and anger at the U.S. Government's rejection of this important strategic attempt at securing their oil resources. China is clearly on track for becoming the next world superpower.

China needs the oil from somewhere. Where will they get it from? The Middle East is dominated largely by U.S. interests, which of late, have become militarily aggressive. Although China has begun to cement economic ties to countries such as Iran, they are likely considering a military move that would take the U.S. out of the equation so that they could secure oil interests of their own to ensure their economic future.

Will China attack the U.S. in the Middle East? Will they aim their missiles at our major cities here at home? Nobody knows for sure, but in today's world, anything is possible.

Forget Al Queda. Watch China.

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Welcome to DU. Thanks for the very scary thought.

[IrateCitizen]

2. China may be eyeing the oil and gas in Central Asia...

Specifically, the "stans" that comprise the region. At least that's the assessment of many people experienced in analyzing the energy and geopolitical arena from what I've seen on energybulletin.net.

Their assessment is that if China were to move in that direction, it would be very difficult for the US to stop. Essentially, the only option available would be a land war against China in that region -- not a very appealing prospect, for many reasons.

[Oreo]

3. They don't need to attack

The Bush regime is depleting our troops and spreading them thin. China doesn't need to attack anybody... they can just buy us.

[revree]

4. China has a deal with Iran for oil production.

Don't be surprised if we end up in world war three if Bush decides to invade Iran. China and Russia will counterattack, as they both have ties to Iran for oil...

[IrateCitizen]

7. They don't have to attack us militarily...

Hell, all China has to do (and it wouldn't surprise me if some of the EU nations follow suit to varying degrees) is to call in our debt. What would REALLY cripple us is if they decided to demand it be paid in Euros. The American economy would collapse virtually overnight.

China has us by the short curlies, so to speak, due to the amount of our debt they currently hold.

[K-W]

8. And then when US nuclear missles pierce the asian sky

and Soviet and Chinese nuclear missles demolish US cities...

Somehow I dont think either the Soviet Union or China plan on ending the existance of thier nations over Iranian soveriegnty.

[IrateCitizen]

10. That's not where this is headed at all...

Due to its recent diconnection of the Yuan from the US dollar, and its tacking it to several currencies, including the Euro, all that China would have to do to counter such a move would be to call in its portion of US debt, and demand that it be paid in Euros.

The US economy would collapse virtually overnight. And if the US refused to comply, it would simply spur a run on US debt by other nations who would lose confidence in the full faith of the US government to honor that debt.

China has us by the short curlies a lot more than most folks realize.

[K-W]

13. That is pure fantasy

First off China cant just call in the US debt and demand it be paid in Euro's. The debt is structured, China can't arbitrarily change the conditions.

And I have a funny feeling that if China suddenly declared economic war on the US, we might just decide that we dont have to pay our debt to China. And then China would have a bunch of worthless pieces of paper.

What you dont realize is that China only has that debt because it has agreed to play by our rules, and the day it stops playing by those rules it becomes red china again and it doesnt get to call any shots.

[IrateCitizen]

15. What you fail to realize in all of this is...

... that US debt is enabled by the US dollar being the primary world currency. The emergence of the Euro has challenged that previously unchallenged hegemony.

If you don't believe me, then check out the recent article by William Clark (also a DUer, "Petrodollar Warfare") on energybulletin.net. One of the major threats that Iran poses right now is that they are planning to open an alternative oil bourse in which commodities are traded in Euros, not dollars. This gives other countries the opportunity to invest in energy in an alternative currency, which could prove disastrous for US economic standing.

Furthermore, China recently de-linked their currency, the Yuan, from the US dollar. It then established a currency trading rate based on something like three separate world currencies -- the dollar and the Euro being among them.

The challenge that China could mount by demanding payment in Euros would be a direct assault upon the hegemony of the US dollar. But even if they suddenly demanded payment in dollars, it would seriously affect the economy. If the US simply deigned to refuse to settle that debt, it would not be an isolated event. Rather, it would force ALL nations holding US treasury bonds as debt to reconsider the good faith of the US to honor that debt.

If they decided, en masse, that the US was no longer a good place to invest, it could precipitate a run on the dollar that would cause the US economy to go into a meltdown, just like the run on banks (and their failure to pay) helped cause the Great Depression.

You're looking at the US dealing with China as an isolated economic event. It is far from it -- how the US deals with China has a lot of impact on how other nations deal with the US.

[K-W]

17. I realize that just fine, but it doesnt support your argument,

The fact remains that China does not have the option of calling in our debt. It isnt a thug on the streetcorner. Bonds have maturity dates.

If the US simply deigned to refuse to settle that debt, it would not be an isolated event. Rather, it would force ALL nations holding US treasury bonds as debt to reconsider the good faith of the US to honor that debt.

If China decided to sabotage the US economy, the rest of the world would turn on China, not the US.

You seem to think that there is some real global free market. There isnt, there is a global financial structure that is controlled from the top. If China wont play by the rules, it will be cut out of the system again, and if China starts to exploit the rules, the rules will be changed.

The only way China could declare economic war on the US would be if it had allies amongst the established economic powers. But I dont see why any country outside of maybe the USSR would back China against the US.

[ewagner]

5. Welcome to DU

My question is how desperate is China for oil?

How far are they willing to go to obtain it?

In the back of my mind is the desperation of Japan in 1940-1941 when the US embargoed their oil supplies.

[rman]

18. How desperate is China: car ownership growing 20% per year

How far are they willing to go: why would they want to go any less far then the US is going?
First they try economic 'war'/takeover/trade agreements.
If that fails, covert operations; coups, assasinations. If that fails, open war. At least that's how 'we' have been doing it.

[K-W]

6. No, China will not attack the US. It would be a nuclear conflict. EOM

[Sequoia]

9. But where will we get our toys from?

[KeepItReal]

11. As long as China doesn't ramp up Naval capacities, we are ok right? Wrong.

If you believe these guys:

"A highly classified intelligence report produced for the new director of national intelligence concludes that U.S. spy agencies failed to recognize several key military developments in China in the past decade, The Washington Times has learned.

Among the failures highlighted in the study are:
• China's development of a new long-range cruise missile.
• The deployment of a new warship equipped with a stolen Chinese version of the U.S. Aegis battle management technology.
• Deployment of a new attack submarine known as the Yuan class that was missed by U.S. intelligence until photos of the submarine appeared on the Internet.
• Development of precision-guided munitions, including new air-to-ground missiles and new, more accurate warheads.
• China's development of surface-to-surface missiles for targeting U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups.
• The importation of advanced weaponry, including Russian submarines, warships and fighter-bombers. "

"This group's desire to have good relations with China has prevented them from highlighting how little they know and suppressing occasional evidence that China views the United States as its main enemy." "

http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20050609-120336-4092r_page2.htm

[Terran]

24. Russian subs are advanced weaponry?

How come they keep getting stranded? I'm thinking the Russian military is not all it was cracked up to be during the Cold War. Just sayin'.

And to the OP: I don't think China's bid to buy UNOCAL was a bid to acquire more oil, per se, but a bid to acquire more oil trading and exploration resources. UNOCAL doesn't own any oil resources of its own, just the means to exploit other people's resources.

I seriously doubt that China will risk its currently rosy international picture in a reckless bid to steal oil or preserve Iran's sovereignty. China's main challenge right now is coping with growth, for which it does need oil. But I see them as extremely patient and with a long LONG institutional memory. They're willing to take a long road to supremacy. They will slow their growth down if they have to, and use ham-handed methods to do it.

[Booster]

12. The absolute worst time in the history of our country for us to have

a lazy, dumbass, arrogant, self-centered prick in the White House. We really need to get Bush/Cheney out of the WH before they get us all blown up. We are in really deep doo doo.

[LSK]

14. are you kidding??? China is getting rich off our debt

They got a good thing going milking the US economically. They wouldnt go to war and ruin that.

[IrateCitizen]

16. They need energy to keep going economically...

And since they don't have enough domestic sources, they have to look elsewhere. One of those places is Iran.

Therefore, China could view any US action on Iran as a direct threat to their national interest and security.

[K-W]

20. But China will get thier energy, they just have to play by our rules

to get it. And as long as our rules keep thier elites rich, why on earth would they rebel against them?

[LSK]

21. and whats to stop China from becoming Energy independent

Just because this country is stuck with old energy sources such as oil, that doesnt mean China has to rely on it. I think they are already big on hydroelectric power over there.

If they are emerging as a power, they are free to use alternative energy sources.

Not that I know they are actually doing this, but if I was China, thats what I would be doing.

[K-W]

22. And nobody is cutting off thier oil.

The US just wants to control how they get it, where the money goes, etc.

[bpilgrim]

25. U.S.

oil IS todays 'civilizations' life blood.

Oil and gas shortage hits China's southern manufacturing hub

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&ct=res&cd=1&url=http%3A//news.tradingcharts.com/futures/1/2/69045021.html&ei=KoL7QunFFI7maLOrtHY

something is gona give :scared:

peace

[theboss]

19. China doesn't have the ability to project its forces that way yet.

You are half-right that China is a sleeping giant and needs to be watched very closely. You are more right that China and the US are going to be competing for resources.

But you don't know anything about the military.

[bpilgrim]

26. the WAR is goin on in THEIR backyard, not OURs, rember... we fight'm OT

(over there) to keep 'us' SAFE, hello...



peace

[theboss]

27. So they are going to conquer India first?

How is China going to get its troops and equipment into the Middle East? Tell me, general. Unless they are going to walk across about three countries, they can't do it.

China at the moment probably can't get its army to Taiwan if it wanted to.

[bpilgrim]

29. you forgot POLAND!!!

look at where ALL them STANS are, admiral - fyi

peace

[MadHound]

23. No Chinese military force needed

If China wants to bring down the US, they don't need military might. All they would have to do is two things, first, call in all of the US debt that they hold(and yes, structered payments aside, China can do this on virtually a moments notice), and secondly, start selling their reserve of dollars. Either one, or both in combination, would bring down the US economy quite quickly. China would probably take a bit of a hit economically if the did either one of these moves, but nowhere near the hit the US would take.

And with China's movement towards the Euro, they may indeed be selling their dollar reserves in the relatively near future.

[K-W]

30. You need to step back and look at the big picture.

The powers that be in the global financial system are not going to let China pull a coup.

[AngryAmish]

31. They can't "call in" the debt

Our debt is not like a loan from a bank. What we do is sell Treasury Bills on the open market to whomever wants to buy them. China happens to buy a lot of them. Treasury Bills are bonds, certificates that say I will pay you x amount of dollars (not euros) over time and then I will give you your principle back.

If China demands euros we won't pay. If they won't take our dollars then that is fine. If I am a tenant and my lease says I owe $1000 in rent per month but my landlord then says he wanted the payment in gold or euros, no court is going to evict me if he refuses to take the tender agreed to in the contract.

What does China want? 1. Peace at home. Every Chinese emperor for thousands of years has fear rebellion and civil war at home. Chinese Communist Party rulers are no different. Why did Mao launch the Cultural Revolution? Because he feared domestic rebellion.

How does the Party keep peace? They are trying to make everyone wealthier while keeping a lid on domestic dissent. (Kinda like Singapore). They heads of the Party also want to get themselves and their families rich.

Anyway, we are a much richer nation than China. China recently had millions of people living in caves. China wants to play nice in the international trading sphere and will not try to ruin the US. This makes "the people" richer, happier and less likely to rebel. Plus it will make the head of the Party and their cronies rich.


Plus, why in the hell would they sell their dollars? This would make dollars less valuable - exactly the opposite of what China wants. The US has been pressuring China for years to inflate the yuan (and thus devalue the dollar. Selling their dollars inflates the yuan, making their manufacturing goods more expensive. Factories close. People in the cities are pissed off and cause trouble. Bad for business and bad for the Party.

China is trying to become a grown up country. They are trying to secure their energy supplies. They are doing this by making long term deals with people. They are invading nobody for a while. They are interested in peace because it is in their self interest.

[European Socialist]

28. why would they bomb their best customer?

[Lydia Leftcoast]

32. According to a report on the much-lamented Newsworld International

China is working overtime to make friends in Africa through various foreign aid projects and just plain buddying up to the region's leaders. It touts itself as a Third World country that knows how to develop from medieval to modern standards in a short time.

Nigeria, Angola, Libya, and yes, Sudan and possibly some other African countries, all have major oil fields. In fact, the presence of oil fields in southern Sudan is one reason why there has been so little action on the Darfur genocide is that the Western nations and China as well don't want to offend an oil-producing nation.