Can you out of staters please cool it with the Arnold's gonna win stuff?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

I frankly think it is an abomination to come to a board that I support and love after working my ass off to defeat this recall and read those headlines.

I certainly can understand headers that ask or worry about it but twice in the last two days, I have seen titles stating ARNOLD'S GOING TO WIN as though people have any actual handle on the numbers.

The strategists of ALL the major players acknowledge as much.

Reading this board, as a California activist working HARD to overcome this battle, get out the vote and SHORE up support is like having a mother in the background while you are training for the Olympics screaming YOU ARE A LOSER WHO WILL NEVER AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.

All I am asking is a little support and consideration...a little less fatalism and a bit of respect for the many activists in California politics who post here and support this board.

[Loyal]

1. I wholeheartedly agree, NSMA.

I think it is a shame. Everyone who posts on this board should support Davis.

[kentuck]

2. NSMA, I think some folks are forming opinions from "polls"...

Which goes to show how powerful some "polls" can be when used for political advantage?

[Loyal]

4. Especially when

they poll more Republicans than Democrats purposely. Couple that with the media shilling for Arnold, and it's terrible.

[kentuck]

8. And especially when...

they poll non-voters and those not-likely-to-vote. Understandably, tehy would support Arnold. They probably have the library of his movies at home...

[Loyal]

12. Hey, I have his libraries of movies at home

I think Arnold's movies are entertaining, but that doesn't mean that I would vote for him. I can't understand people who will vote for him because of that reason(and a lot will).

[eileen_d]

3. You are definitely right

Defeatism so close to election day is disrespectful IMO. Also, even though I'm not in CA, thanks for your hard work against the recall.

[nini]

5. THANK YOU

I want to scream my head off everytime I see those posts.

Hello? let's all shut up, lay down and take it???? is that what we're supposed to do?

Sorry, I'd rather work on getting the truth out and fight for what's right.

[shance]

49. THANK YOU AGAIN

Just had to second Nini's post.***

[flamingyouth]

6. I'm trying to keep my hopes up

But I do get depressed when the media blatantly whores for him so much. (Note: I've never posted that he's going to win, but I admit that I fear the prospect)

[SaintLouisBlues]

7. Keep fightin' the good fight

I predict the good people of California will somehow rise to the occasion.

[patdem]

9. I am from VA and though my stomach gets into a ball when I read

those sorts of headlines..I have faith in Californians. And I never POST an opinion, cause, simply...national news is NOT local news so I simply do not know!!

Good Luck!:bounce:

[juajen]

45. I have faith in Californians too, but

none in the election process. I am afraid "they" will do something again.

[robbedvoter]

10. This out of staters agrees with you 100%

The polls and coverage are now completeley psy-ops, just as we seen it done in 2000 and 2002. It behooves us to know better. And Californians, just go vote!
PS. The GOP strategist on CNN said on Friday that people started wearing "I SUDDENLY LOVE GRAY DAVIS BUTTONS" (in the context of the "court order benefitting the dems who have the momentum). Buttons or not - make us proud! (as you did in 2002)

[knight_of_the_star]

30. We will

We've pulled a rabbit out of the hat before, we can do it again! Bush doesn't and won't own California! If worse comes to worse, we can always begin the effort to recall Arnie in a month or so if the climate for that is right and he screws up badly enough (which will happen).

[Booberdawg]

11. Thank you! I agree! It's RUDE!

If you check the responses in that post you will find other folks offended with the fatalism as well.

There are several reports coming out that indicate the poll results that came out today are really not all that accurate. I think it was a HEAD FUCK. This isn't over yet.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

17. The purpose of that poll was to supress the Dem vote by making it look

like a foregone conclusion. So when some do the same thing here at DU, I then question why they would wish to supress the Dem vote by making it look like a foregon conclusion.

[kentuck]

19. That is the strategy from the Bush WH also...

make him look so invincible that there is really no need to go to the polls.

[Booberdawg]

22. I think "some" of the people on DU unwittingly fall into the fatalism

the poll was intentionally released to CAUSE that attitude of fatalism among Dem supporters against the recall. and it worked to some extent. :(

I'm listening to reports RIGHT NOW (MSNBC) that discuss those poll results as questionable, and waiting to compare with other polls to come out later this week. Also the poll results today do not match results of internal polls of EITHER Dem or Repup campaign insiders. IT WAS A HEAD FUCK!!!!

[noiretextatique]

51. absolutely...mentioned this in another "gloom and doom" thread

they are trying to suppress the vote, and it doesn't help to be depressed by threads here.

[pmbryant]

13. Great post, NSMA

No one knows what is going to happen. This kind of election is unprecedented in modern political history.

Anyone who pretends to know for sure what the result will be is blowing smoke.

--Peter

[roughsatori]

14. I saw those post titles you are referring too, very annoying

And I am not living in California. What bothers me is that it may send a message of "stay home, don't vote because it is a waste of your time--Arnold has already won." In politics those kinds of messages do limit voter turnout--voters don't bother because they don't think it will change a pre-ordained outcome.

I know the posters did not mean that--but I understand why you would be so disheartened. Thanks for trying to stop the thugs from taking over.

[Cheswick2.0]

15. I was hearing all about this in the car on the way home today

I was going to come and ask what you and other californians think of these polls. I know you all working hard. Could you give us a bit of an update?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

20. I can only tell you what has been done

We have nearly every labor union in the state on board. Internal polls indicate that Arnold got a bit of a bump from his appearance in the debates.

Wesley Clark will be out this week to support Davis and the NO on the recall vote.

Right now it is contact registered voters and make sure they show up to vote.

[atreides1]

16. I Do Have Respect For Your Endeavors.

I realize that you and others are doing the best that you can, but it's the people that vote. I'm not sure what the outcome will be, but
if Arnold wins, what can you and the other activists do.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

21. Recall him...we will..it's as good as done

[oasis]

18. I wonder if any significant amount of Latinos were polled. From my

personal experience, that is one group that would be especially suspicious of officials asking questions and gathering data.

For that reason I expect a stronger showing for Bustamante than the polls might indicate.

[JustJoe]

23. Amen. Goddam

fucking negativist defeatist whiteflag-waving spineless
jelly leg bullshit.

[Melsky]

24. I'll be voting

It is hard not to be discouraged when you go to DU or Google news and see big "Arnold's gonna win" headlines. I think it is a rovian tactic. I have emailed my family about how important it is to get out and vote, and will be phoning them on election eve.

I have a very hard time believing that enough people would want that idiot as the governor.

[juajen]

47. Hey, Melsky

I love your paintings. I'm an abstract artist also. No website, as of yet. Hope to have one early next year.

I agree. It is hard to believe that anyone would seriously vote for him. Shows the desperation of the pubs that they have to run an actor to attempt to get the vote in a democratic California. Hope it doesn't work. I'm crossing my fingers.

[jobycom]

25. If I'd known you were on the case, I wouldn't have worried, sis!

Them pollsters ain't countin' on Arnold having to deal with Shocks!

[Kanola]

26. Here from California.. I don't buy that poll for a second

Keep up the good work! I do think we will prevail.

No on the recall
Yes on Bustamante

[VOX]

27. Another Californian thanking you, nsma!

The far-flung defeatist posts are beyond ill-considered -- they undermine effort, morale and spirit.

There's a crucial election in our state on October 7. All California Democrats need to get out their vote to stop the recall. The more we focus on that, the better our chance of stopping this insanity.

[nolabels]

28. I am from California. California is Democratic by plurality.

How can he win really. My local wing nut newspaper says Arnold has declared War on Davis, if these are not words of provocation, I don't know what it.

[Cha]

29. YOu Californians are going kick arnie's ass back to the movie

lot! Go you Cal Dems:kick:

[salin]

31. This former California voter... AGREES! What do folks want - to depress

folks out of going to the polls? Geeeez.

Go California DUers Go!

[Hell Hath No Fury]

32. GREAT thread on the recall poll numbers!

Check it out here - it will give you hope! ;)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=433761

[Booberdawg]

33. HERE IT IS PRINTED OUT:

433761, New Recall Poll seriously flawed

Posted by jeter on Mon Sep-29-03 05:34 PM

Okay for all you ready to jump off a bridge. Consider this, CNN/Gallup poll is notorious for running bad polls that favor Republicans (especially Bush supported).

The two most famous:

Bush and McCain tied in New Hampshire the day before the primary. McCain won the primary by 17%.

Bush ahead of Gore the day before the national election by 7%. Gore won the pop. vote by 1%.

In California, Gallup predicted that the election was within the margin. Bush ahead by 2% or Gore ahead by 2%. Gore won by 13%.

Why are their numbers like this? Simple. It's their methodology. They simply count more republicans than democrats.

Nationally, voter registration breaks down like this: Democrat 30 to 35% of population. Republican 25%. and Independant about 40 to 45%.


But in their polls they count it more like this: Republican 35 to 40%, Independant about 30 to 35%, and Democrat about 25 to 30%.

You see they undercount independants and Democrats. And overcount Republicans. That is why their polls favor the GOP.

I have written Gallup in the past and asked them about this. They responded to me by saying that this reflects the "probable" voter and not just the registered voter. Their argument being that the republican is more likely to vote than the democrat or independant.

Bullshit. There may be a kernal of truth. But not enough to justify these wild swings, that 9 times out of 10 benefit the GOP.

Okay, now with this most recent and famous recall poll.

Of California's "registered" voters, and this is a very interesting position as well. Since as we all know, the "registered" voters don't include many blacks, asians or hispanics. These groups make up more than 50% of California's population.

So already discluding these people, 55% of Registered Voters want to "remove Davis from office" whereas 41% do not.

According to the same poll of "probable voters" 63% want to remove him, whereas 35% want to keep him. 8% MORE want him gone, whereas 6% FEWER want him to stay. Using the same poll numbers.

So not only are they not counting the blacks, hispanics, and asians that are not registered. But they believe that enough democrats WILL NOT vote as to create 13% disparity between the poll of registered voters and "probable voters."

Look at the favorabilities:

Arnold has a favorable opinion among 63% of "probable voters;" 30% unfavorable.

McClintock has a favorable opinion among 62% of "probable voters;" 20% unfavorable.

Cruz Bustamante has a favorable opinion among 37% of "probable voters;" and 54% unfavorable.

There is no way that these numbers are true. With 50% minority population, two republicans who supported propositions against Affirmative Action and Hispanics have only 20% and 30% unfavorables. Whereas the Democrat has unfavorable of 54%? Not possible mathematically.

Finally the debate: Who won according to this poll?

Arnold got 23%; Bustamante got 12%; Huffington got 4%; McClintock got 43%; and Camejo got 10%.

Which means that 66% thought a conservative won. Whereas, 26% thought a left of center candidate won.

This again is impossible. Even in the debate Bush beat Gore (the second) 30 to 40% thought Gore won, whereas 50 to 55% thought Bush won. This is further proof that the numbers are skewed in favor of the Republicans.

There is no doubt that the GOP have gained some steam as of late. The nonesense about delaying the recall, the licenses and sam sex marriage mess. And the fact that Bustemante and Davis can never seem to be on the same page has hurt our momentum. But I think the numbers are close. Within the margin at very worst.

So stay the course. I believe we may still win. If Arnold's numbers were this good. Why has he gone on an attacking rampage? Why not be the likeable actor? His numbers aren't this good that's why.

I find it funny that these are the numbers though that get widely reported.

Check out the whole poll for yourself

www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2003-09-28-recall-poll.htm

[spooky3]

34. hang in there; we support you! (eom)

[Art_from_Ark]

53. Kick Arnold's butt!

All the way to the political scrapheap of history!

[Enraged American]

35. I don't really like

this DLC guy who's made the Democratic Party the laughing stock of the nation and (I've seen this mentioned on the board) kissed Enron's ass. A scumbag by any other name is still a scumbag. I can't tell you who I'd vote for if I were in California because I'm pretty conflicted on this issue, but Camejo and Huffington deserve some votes.

I'm also sick of seeing it getting so much coverage on national news. It's just another celebrity story to me. Can't wait till it's over, no matter who wins.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

36. Camejo (for all his whoring) deserves a swift kick in the ass since

he has ran around the state begging for union support and union workers will have him to thank when they lose their jobs...

By the way..I just love the logic...we don't want to support the DLC guy because he is really in the pocket of corporations...then when he gives prison guards (state employees and union workers) a raise which forces PRIVATE NON UNION prisons to UP their compensation to workers in order to remain competitive, he is in the pocket of the special interests.

If Gray Davis is a DLC lackey then why has he so forcefull gone after the energy traders that games our markets.

Your philosophy only proves why no one will ever take Greens seriously. They DON'T know how to form alliances, and would rather lose than compromise..their tent is only large enough to be spoilers for the very values they claim to wish to protect..oh yeah..and their tent seems to be large enough to aid and abet Republicans.

Greens really should CHARGE Republicans for all the help they give them...there's nothing worse than a prostitute that works for free when one can get paid for it.

[Loyal]

37. Agreed

Couldn't have put it better myself.

[jiacinto]

38. Great post!

I fully agree with you.

[noiretextatique]

55. that means no more "it's over" posts?

:eyes:

[noiretextatique]

54. alameda county green party: NO on the recall

yes on camejo though.

[noiretextatique]

57. i doubt this person is a green, and he's not a californian

:shrug: who cares what he thinks? i will be voting NO on the recall.

[Booberdawg]

58. He's apparently not even a DU member anymore either

;-)

[mitchtv]

43. here we go again Davis isn't a liberal(enough)

so we'll get a puke thank god you don't live here . I like Davis and will stickby him, I'm only sorry the Dems went with Loretta Sanchez' theory of an (insurance) Dem. Bustamante has done nothing for us. Dianne was right (SCumbag DLC'r that she is)

[noiretextatique]

56. your posts are identical to another out-of-state poster

:wtf:

[West Coast Democrat]

39. Thanks for all of your work!

I don't believe that Gallup poll either. Just keep working hard to get out the vote, and Arnold won't have a chance.

[Booberdawg]

40. this thread needs to be on page one!

:kick:

[LittleApple81]

41. kick n/t

[hunter]

42. Yeah, what she said...

And don't use those black box voting machines to cheat, Arnold, I'll be watching!

[Lindsey]

44. Right on NSMA!

I think these polls are total bullshit to discourage people from voting. I picked a friend up tonight from the airport who was visiting family in Florida for the past week. He said, "Shit, I've been hearing what's going on...about Arnold probably winning and everything so I guess I'll be leaving the country sooner than expected" (he WASN'T kidding) -He's more of a leftist than I am but doesn't get on these boards, etc. He has a lot of bucks so he's wanting to relocate to South Africia. Anyway, I told him that I thought the polls are being used to keep people from voting.."we're going to loose anyway," etc. God help us all.

[fabius]

46. Go get 'em !!!! from Oregon.

We're proud of you. Also shitty stuff from CA migrates north so we gotta watch out!

:)

[Blitz]

48. Rest assured, NSMA

I'll be voting.

[noiretextatique]

50. amen, nsma...

:argh: the gloom and doom "it's over" stuff is depressing. and the thought of you-know-who "winning" is depressing enough :argh:

[Terwilliger]

52. I have not seen anything like this Schwarzy propaganda

Every time I see ANY news (local, national, etc.) I see about AHH-nold...whether he's standing at a function, or walking, or shaking hands, or walking, or shaking hands. Then, you'll see him bending to shake hands! Then standing on stage in a tie. I ALWAYS see video of Schwarzenegger on any broadcast news. Also, all mainstream news talks about how AHH-nold received KEY endorsements...only to find out that, hey, what do you know? The Republican Party of California's Administrative division endorses AHH-nold Schwarzy for governor. WOO HOO! :crazy:

It doesn't matter what else AHH-nold is, it seems that he is the wunderkind that will slay all the Repub sheep.

[Andromeda]

59. I totally agree...

Knock it off you Arnold supporters! We live in California and with every fiber of our being want Ahhhnold to be defeated don't appreciate this absurd prediction that Muscle Head is going to win.

It ain't over till it's over. Got it?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

60. Tuesday night reminder KICK!

[thebigidea]

61. may Larry Flynt release some last minute filth

bleghhhhhhhhh

[tom_paine]

62. kick

it's just that many of us fear Uncle Karl's Magic Touchscreen Voting Elves.

But you are right...faint heart ne'er won fair maiden.