Bush WILL go to war with Iran

[moodforaday]

unless - no, I have no idea what could stop him. Check out this article - a few particularly bloodcurdling quotes below:

Iran: The Next War Is Closer Than You Think
by Joshua Kurlantzick

On state of intelligence about Iran:

one State official told me unequivocally, "The intelligence community, since 2003, has been very clear in its assessment that regime change is unlikely in Iran." This was later echoed by a former CIA official, who said, "Our hands arc so full with Iraq intelligence, reality should confront us." Indeed, in March, leaks from a presidential commission revealed that American intelligence on Iran was so weak that no informed judgments—the kind, say, you'd like to be able to make if you were planning on fostering an internal revolution or launching a military strike—could be made about the country.

On what Neocons are thinking:

Their minds are not primarily concerned with whether or not our intelligence is airtight; the much more pressing concerns are that Iran, which is significantly larger than Iraq, is closer to getting a nuke; it also happens to be much better positioned than Iraq to tilt the entire region toward democracy and help guarantee the security of the United States. "Iraq makes zero sense unless you look at the problem in regional terms," said Meyrav Wurmser, who directs the Center for Middle East Policy at the Hudson Institute and is close to many administration officials. "There's no transformation without regime change in Iran."

On Neocons getting where they want to be:

Building the case for going after Iran entails crushing anyone who thinks it's possible to bargain with the mullahs. To this end, Powell was essentially pushed out by Bush (and Armitage went with him), and Bush ally Porter Goss has taken over the CIA. During the Iraq war, agents filed scathing reports on administration policy, and upon his arrival Goss openly warned agents not to "identify with, support, or champion opposition to the administration or its policies." Before long, high-ranking CIA officials who clashed with Goss started "resigning." Vince Cannistraro, a former top intelligence official, told mc, "All the cautionary roadblocks have been taken out of the way of the hard-liners."

On European attempts to negotiate with Iran - this is the scariest part so far, especially for those who suspect a staged terror event in the US:

According to one congressional aide who participated, the Europeans entered the room and suggested continuing negotiations with Tehran. Members of the committee took turns excoriating them. "They dressed them down," the aide said, "and told the EU ambassadors that their approach had already failed." At first, the European diplomats, startled by this hostile response, apologized for not having already clinched a deal with Iran, and they promised they could still hammer one out. The room only got angrier. "We said to them, 'What are the American people going to say when there's a dirty Iranian nuke in the U.S. and we tell them that our European allies facilitated this?'" the aide said. "

What Michael Ledeen told the author:

Revolution shouldn't be limited to one part of the Middle East," he went on, "and I'm for revolution." He then assured me, in case there was any doubt, that his opinion was shared by the man who matters most. "In private," Ledeen said, "Bush calls for a single solution to the whole Middle East. The president says, 'Iran is the very big problem.' He wags his finger and says, 'We're going to take care of that.'"

I'm over the 4 paragraph limit, so I'll stop here. Please read this article - it's not the first about the topic, but it makes the case

http://www.wetdogdesign.net/realitique/iran-kurlantzick.htm

Nb, this article was linked from a piece by Justin Raimondo, which is worth a look as well:
Bush Against the Generals
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=6938

[Tesla]

1. I can hear it now

[evermind]

2. You could see why they'd want to, but does the US really

have the military strength to launch a full-scale war on Iran, when they're already stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, with recruitment failing?

The question of military capability seems to be absent from the linked article.

[Jackpine Radical]

4. The lack of military strength is no barrier for the truly delusional.

We can do it all from the air. A few nukes & they'll have nothing left to fight with. This time the people really will be out scattering flower petals before our victorious armies.

Think Custer. "I can ride through the entre Sioux nation with a brigade of Cavalry."

[tocqueville]

5. they still have the capacity of massive air strikes

cruise-missiles etc.. not counting tactical nukes

occupation is a later problem

[moodforaday]

7. True

I'll make three points, though:

1. They'd probably want to start with a massive air assault, which is probably doable, since Air Force isn't particularly busy in Iraq.

1a. Nuclear strike? You're probably familiar with this quote from reporter Philip Giraldi (American Conservative)

"The Pentagon, acting under instructions from Vice President Dick Cheney's office, has tasked the United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States. The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons. Within Iran there are more than 450 major strategic targets, including numerous suspected nuclear-weapons-program development sites. Many of the targets are hardened or are deep underground and could not be taken out by conventional weapons, hence the nuclear option. As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States. Several senior Air Force officers involved in the planning are reportedly appalled at the implications of what they are doing – that Iran is being set up for an unprovoked nuclear attack – but no one is prepared to damage his career by posing any objections."

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article9639.htm

For more details, there's a half-hour interview with Giraldi:
http://weekendinterviewshow.com/audio/giraldi.mp3

2. Michael Ledeen (check his latest writing at www.nationalreview.com) apparently believes there are forces within Iran that would pick up the fight and overthrow the government. How he can believe that, or if he really does, I've no idea, since flowers and candies didn't exactly materialize in Iraq. But this is what Neocons are saying all the way. See also references to "MEK" in Kurlantzick's piece.

3. Troops are in Iraq. Gen. Casey says numbers may be reduced by next spring. Bush gives Casey a dressing-down. Implication: the number of troops in Iraq will be reduced, but that doesn't mean they'll be comind home.

"The top American commander in Iraq has been privately rebuked by the Bush administration for openly discussing plans to reduce troop levels there next year, The Sunday Telegraph has learned. … Gen George Casey, the U.S. ground commander in Iraq, was given his dressing-down after he briefed that troop levels – now 138,000 – could be reduced by 30,000 in the early months of next year as Iraqi security forces take on a greater role."

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=6938

[TheModernTerrorist]

21. sure they do

the (p)Resident pulls us out of Iraq, like the people want him to.... then they send them all to IRAN INSTEAD!!




GWB- "See? I PULLED THEM OUT! I'm a GOOD president!"
*falls off Segway*
*chokes on pretzel*
*dies*


~fin~

[leeroysphitz]

3. Re: Bush WILL go to war with Iran

Who WON"T he go to war with?

[JohnnyBoots]

6. Texas, because he definitely knows that is one of the 50 states,Hawaii

I'd be worried.

[McCamy Taylor]

8. Bush might go to War, not sure the Military will go with him this time.

[H5N1]

9. You frickin' bet they will!

Americans do not read.
They will go.

[KerryOn]

10. There is no way I would support a war with Iran...

... the following is a piece I wrote for our local paper lst summer. I think it says it all.

Assume You Live In Iran

Let’s assume for a moment you live in Iran. Find it on a map and picture yourself there. Your country is bordered by Iraq to your west, and Afghanistan to your east.

The USA, the most powerful country in the world, invades Afghanistan to hunt down those who attacked their country in September of 2001.

In January of 2002 the President of the USA declares your country, Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea as the “Axis Of Evil”. The US President declares he wants to spread democracy around the world.

In May of 2002 you become very concerned when the USA begins to develop a new weapon. It’s a nuclear weapon of mass destruction know as a bunker buster, that may be used to destroy their enemy that hides in caves within the mountains of Afghanistan.

In March of 2003 the USA invades your neighbor, Iraq, and overthrows the government. You now have major wars waging in the countries at both your eastern and western boarders. You are frightened the USA may use their weapons of mass destruction. They have already called your country a part of the axis of evil, and you fear you may be next on their list.

You decide your only hope is to develop your own nuclear weapon, because it is the only means you have for defending your country from the powerful giant who is determined to spread its democracy around the world.

Now.... you’re back in the USA. Ask yourself if you are safer than you were before president Bush publicly declared three countries the “axis of evil”, started development of a new nuclear weapon, and invaded Iraq under false pretenses.

On Edit typo.

[existentialist]

11. Congratulations

You have just scared the bejabbers out of me.

Yes, I see the pattern of thinking, and I believe the Bush/Cheney Administration is just delusional enough to really try something that insane.

I'm not quite convinced that the military--or Congress--(not to mention the American people whom Bush patently doesn't care about) will go along with it, but I can well believe that Bush and company will tell any lie, twist any arm, and try to make it a reality.

God help us.


Let's do what we can to try to stop the insanity.

[wuushew]

12. I would like to know about this Iran Freedom Act redux

where it is in Congress and its progress.

It would be the first publicly visible move in the escalation pattern the article outlines.

[Kazak]

13. MIHOP2?

Fucking Christ!! They wouldn't do that would they? Tell me they wouldn't do that...and with nukes no less!!!

[Ms. Clio]

14. "They are going to make the Third Reich look like a tea party"

JP Morgan Chase/Ptech whistleblower Indira Singh.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4182589

[moodforaday]

25. And Bush talks about "impending doom"

The (over)exercise of power - Los Angeles Times

A week ago, when President Bush met with Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson III to interview him for a potential Supreme Court nomination, the conversation turned to exercise. When asked by the president of the United States how often he exercised, Wilkinson impressively responded that he runs 3 1/2 miles a day. Bush urged him to adopt more cross-training. "He warned me of impending doom," Wilkinson told the New York Times.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-chait22jul22,0,3359930.column?coll=la-news-comment-opinions

[Ms. Clio]

26. Please post that as a separate thread

I don't think very many DUers or lurkers have seen it, even if it was previously posted--this board flies so fast.

[Astarho]

15. A few thoughts

Others have mentioned the greater population of Iran compared to Iraq, as well as the mountainous terrain, but here's a few other things that have come to mind.

- The Iranians are well aware that we have them surrounded.

- If the neo-cons want that oil (and we all know they do) all the air strikes and tactical nukes won't get it for them. They will have to put troops on the ground.

- Iran was not carved from the remnants of another empire less than a hundred years ago. Iran has a culture and identity going back thousands of years, and while there are other ethnic groups, over half the population is Persian. About 90% are Shi'a. It won't be so easy to play them off against each other like Iraq.

- In the Shahnamah, the national epic of Iran is full of tales of heros and martyrs and wars with the kingdom of Turan. Rustam and Afrasiab are as familiar to the Iranians as Luke Skywalker and Darth Vader are to us.

We will be the new Turan.

[moodforaday]

23. I'm not sure what Neocons want

Greg Palast recently did an interesting piece of reporting, aired on BBC's Newsnight, about how there were actually two plans on how to run Iraq with regard to privatization and oil. One was the corporate plan, the other was a Neocon plan. Palast says the latter won, and big oil was pissed. Here's Palast's recent article about that:
http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=417&row=1

In one interview Palast put forth a good meme, which I'll quote from memory: "Big Oil wants the Middle East oil fields, but they don't want them on fire." Neo-cons don't seem to be making this distinciton.

[Turn CO Blue]

16. I'm not sure...I think China and Russia will lean on * and

the malAdministration to prevent our going into Iran. They have a LOT of investment there, and they need that oil.

I am worried about anything that may happen in two days, though. I guess I wouldn't put a MIHOP event past these f'ers.

[agincourt]

17. Makes perfect sense,

Iran is one of the few Islamic countries where the average person on the street doesn't depise Americans. So what the fuck, let's bomb the shit out of them. Conservatives always do good politically when it's clusterfuck 24/7.

[EstimatedProphet]

19. And by the same token, the inbred retarded freepers will drool over this

because they 1) hate all the Middle East "cuz of them thar towelheads", and 2) they especially hate Iran because of the hostage crisis of 25 years ago.

[Swamp Rat]

22. Sounds like folks I read about, back in Das Vaterland

[kestrel91316]

18. The VERY LARGE Persian emigre population of my part of LA

is NOT going to be amused when * makes their homeland into a large expanse of glass. They may love their new home and hate the mullahs, but they still have LOTS of family there and family is EVERYTHING to Persians. This town is going to erupt if * touches Iran.

Can we say martial law, kiddies?

[moodforaday]

24. They already have a new Chalabi

and an Iranian resistance force they expect to take the up the fight:

Out of his briefcase he pulled a long transcript of his recent meetings with leaders of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), the biggest Iranian opposition group. The MEK has a political front, the National Council of Resistance in Iran (NCRI), which operates primanly out of France (...)
He considered the MEK's information valuable and has suggested that the administration utilize it—and the MEK's legions—against Tehran.
(...)
he MEK is a powerful force, with over 3,500 members who've dedicated their lives to fighting Tehran and collecting information on its abuses and nuclear activities. They have launched numerous successful sabotage missions against the mullahs, including bombings of Iranian embassies.

Now get this: US officially considers MEK a terrorist organization, but not for much longer:

The former official is hardly deterred. He's convinced that there's now sufficient sympathy toward the MEK in the Pentagon and Congress to review the group's status. "Taking the MEK off the terrorist list...it will now be considered," he said.
(...)
When I asked him if being labeled a terrorist group has troubled the organization at all, he suggested that it wasn't a huge concern. He himself has weathered the trauma of being part of a terrorist organization quite nicely. The FBI and Treasury never even interviewed him, he said, and his livelihood was not threatened. "I still write op-eds, do interviews, give speeches," he told me, smiling. "I got a job as an analyst for Fox News."

[OneBlueSky]

20. a core group of powerful hawks inside and outside the government . . .

were hard at work planning how to take Iran down. For them, Iraq was—is—just part of a larger mission, and what some see as failure (Iraq's recent elections notwithstanding, a majority of Americans now think the invasion was a mistake) they sec as a learning experience."

if you read the PNAC documents, you'll understand that the Middle East mission was ALWAYS much larger than just Iraq . . . it also includes, at minimum, Iran and Syria . . . and quite possibly Saudi Arabia . . .