Sy Hersch predicts insurgents to mount a "Tet offensive."

[patcox2]

Last night on TDS, Hersch said that there's a lot of intelligence chatter indicating a major offensive coming, like nothing before, he specifically said a "battle for baghdad."

Whats this guy's track record on predictions like this?

If this happened, it would be disastrous, militarily and for Bush, the public seems to be at a tipping point as it is.

He also said we are already attacking Iran with special forces based in Baluchistan and I think he said Kazakhstan, mounting raids and supporting rebels in those areas.

[bribri16]

1. The invasion of Iraq started in a similar way in early 2001.

US Special ops and those from UK, and Israel forces were operating inside Iraq long before 9/11.

[jim3775]

2. He really needs a blog

Maybe Juan Cole and James Wolcott could compel him.

[Richardo]

3. I can definitely see it happening

The insurgents are getting much more sophistcated in their timing: In the latest incident, first bomb, second when responders arrive, third at the hospital when the victims of the first two bombs arrive.

The tactics are getting more and more scary (that's why they call it 'terrorism', I know). And when it starts up here... :scared:

[Southpaw Bookworm]

5. They're learning from U.S.

Abortion clinic bombers and white supremacists, who have used that strategy for years: One bomb to get the responders there, and then a second, more destructive one near where the responders will arrive. Prime example: Eric Rudolph and the Birmingham bomb, with the nail bomb strategically placed behind a planter.

[charlie]

4. Dunno

I've long thought that something like a successful strike on the Green Zone with heavy casualties would reinvigorate public support for the war, renew the fervor for gittin' tough and "ending it once and for all" with a major offensive escalation. Not sure it'd be a bad thing for Bush's fortunes, at least in the short term.

[K-W]

6. I cant see that happening.

People like wars when they are winning them not when they are losing them.

[Telly Savalas]

7. Iran is certainly being gracious not to complain...

about our military excursions there.

[patcox2]

9. Our media is being cooperative not to report our incursions.

I have heard Iranian complaints about what they term rebel or guerrilla activity in the north and east of their country. I am not sure that they directly accuse the US.

[Telly Savalas]

18. Why would they refrain from accusing the US if the US was involved?

They'd find quite a few sympathetic ears if they were to lodge complaints.

[Squatch]

8. No way. The insurgency is not organized, equipped, or

trained in a fashion to mount a cohesive "offensive" with any immediate tactical objectives like those witnessed in the Tet Offensive of 1968. The most I think they are capable of waging is a series of disjointed and unrelated hit-and-run attacks, as is currently the MO.

[GreenPartyVoter]

11. Sy thought an attack or series of attacks in the Green zone could be

the plan. Not Tet, but would certainly be effective in rattling the people who feel safe in there.

[wtmusic]

12. unless through sheer numbers

it wouldn't have to be particularly coordinated. If 10,000 "insurgents" mounted an attack on the Green Zone with RPGs, mortars, and small arms fire IMO we could be overrun. Than ALL hell breaks loose.

[NNN0LHI]

13. Or not

We really don't know what kind of offensive they are capable of waging. Since we have invaded Iraq our leaders have consistently underestimated the capabilities of the Iraqis. Its been well over 2 years now since Rumsfeld was talking about a few dead enders left to mop up. We have come a long way since then.

Don

[catnhatnh]

15. Strategically a "Tet" is the easiest of all to plan....

....you agree on a time and date and EVERYONE does their damndest to inflict maximum damage to the largest nearby target...Tactically all is planned LOCALLY and stategically individual success or failure is a moot point."Tet" is show and tell...."See what we've got???" And in Vietnam it was a "tactical" failure AND a brilliant "strategic" victory...

[Nickster]

10. Sy is a very honest and courageous writer. I've been thinking about

this exact thing for awhile. Something like TET would really knock us on our heels. Remember, TET was even a miserable failure for the VC, but it still gave us a good knock on the head.

[kansasblue]

14. Pray for the troops. nt

[Jackpine Radical]

16. Actually, I'm somewhat surprised it hasn't already happened.

I was on hand to see the first Tet, and I've been wondering when the Iraqis would launch a major, coordinated strike against American forces. Their biggest problem strategically is to get us out of the country, so they are pretty much wasting munitions they use on the home-grown militia at this point, and even British deaths don't impress Americans very much, so they need to kill OUR troops and thereby weaken the American resolve to "stay the course." Remember, at the height of Vietnam we were losing 50 or 100 a day, not 2 or 3 or 5.

[Squatch]

17. Here's a blog definitely worth reading...

Michael Yon

[Javaman]

19. If there is a Tet like offensive...

It will happen when we least expect it.

Remember Tet is the new year celebrations in Vietnam. At first when Tet started, many military bases were on a low alert status because they thought it's a holiday, nothing is going to happen. And it was a common belief among the brass and the clods back in washington, that we were "turning the corner" should have the troops home any time now.

When the first attacks began, everyone was taken totally off guard because the first contacts were thought of as fireworks. Then reports of explosions and reports of country wide attacks started coming in.

Everything changed. It was a whole new war.