new trend in Clark vs. Dean MeetUp signups

[pruner]

yesterday I posted that for the 3 days prior Clark & Dean had been getting new signups at approximately the same rate, with Dean holding a steady lead of approximately 86,300.

since that time, the rate of signups for Dean has increased (or the rate of signups for Clark has decreased) and Dean is now holding a lead in excess of 86,700.

based on this, and some other personal observations, I'm beginning to think Clark has peaked…at least for the time being. perhaps he'll get another boost when he starts articulating his policies, but until then, I don't see him gaining (or even sustaining) momentum.

this is all just my opinion, and I'm an avowed Dean supporter, so take it for what it's worth.

[wyldwolf]

1. "I don't see him gaining (or even sustaining) momentum..."

The grassroots performance of Dean supporters through meet-ups is phenominal to be sure... but I don't put too much importance on meet-up in the overall support process.

[Gringo]

2. I have met several Clark supporters on the train, seen buttons

I'm mostly happy that they're not for Bush, but a smidgen disappointed that they're suckered by the Clark glamor over the Dean substance.


Let's put Dean over the top by tonight's FEC deadline! I donated, did you?

https://secure2.convio.net/dfa/site/Donation?ACTION=SHOW_DONATION_OPTIONS&CAMPAIGN_ID=3405&JServSessionIdr001=pnj7aiso11.app193a

[returnable]

7. Gee, thanks for telling me I've been "suckered"

Insult the intelligence of other Democrats - yep, that's a real good way to promote your candidate.

As it is, I happen to have issues with some of Dean's "substance". Thanks for asking.

[JNelson6563]

3. I have seen this as a honeymoon period

for Clark and have wondered what would happen after it. It will be interesting no matter what.

Julie

[AP]

4. How accurate of a measure is this? Just by virtue of you

saying that you're keeping track would encourage people to sign up for one or the other with multiple email addresses. It's seems to be a measure, partly, of who has enough free time to keep registering themselves under multiple email addresses.

[pruner]

8. as I stated, it's just my biased opinion

and I sincerely doubt that anyone is freeping MeetUp based on my post.

[salin]

5. Imo, it just shows a different emphasis from the different campaigns

The Dean campaign seems to be pushing netorganizing as a means of fundraising and getting local involvement in the campaign.

The Clark campaign seems to have regrouped (is it regrouping if it is just officially forming?) and focusing more on building a central organization. I can understand this, in the sense that they have limited time and resources and getting the crew together is a top priority. Thus the push to use this as a vehicle to garner the support and momentum that it built to launch the draft through announcement may have been backed off.

In both cases I think the rate of responses was not just a 'natural phenomenon' as it might have appeared - but an intentional push (outreach) to push to get new folks to sign up. Which is why I think any change in signup rate reflects more on the current priorities of the campaign than it is a sign of overall campaign momentum.

[Northwind]

6. I am solidly a Dean guy

But I think saying Clark has peaked after being in the race not even a month is stretching it, to say the least. Remember that Dean has had a huge push on the last few days, that probably has more to do with it than anything.