Sacramento Bee: Recall Polls are differing Widely

[CMT]

According to this article while Gallup had Davis behind on the recall question by a huge 63-35 and Bustamante behind Arnold by 40-25, another poll conducted during the same time period by the LA Chamber of Commerce had a much closer race:

Arnold ahead of Bustamante but by only 35-31 percent (within the moe)
and Davis behind on the Recall but by a much closer 53-41 percent.

Also Art Torres, the Chairman of the California Democratic party, issued a statement saying: "The Gallup poll of 581 voters included a bias of 49.2 percent Republicans...no other poll has showed Republican turnout of anywhere near 49.2%"

http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/story/7510362p-8452348c.html

[jiacinto]

1. Interesting

I think that whomever gets their base out wins.

[Frances]

3. I'll vote No on Recall, Yes on Bustamante

I am trying to keep the faith, Carlos. We did get Chris Van Hollen into the House back in Maryland, and I'm hoping I'll help keep Arnold out of the governor's office.

I haven't volunteered in this campaign, but I will talk to all of my relatives out here.

[jiacinto]

6. Good

Keep the faith.

[Ediacara]

2. just as I suspected

another thread mentioned that internal polling showed the race MUCH closer than the much talked-about poll we all know.

I think this article hits the problem with that poll right on the head too: Republicans ARE NOT 49.2% of the electorate in California, and to assume that 49.2% of the voters will be Republicans is just folly.

[Cha]

4. they cheat, lie, and scheme whenever they can...the polls are just

another venue.

[tom_paine]

5. Suddenly, many disagreeing polls, which have no ability to predict

Amazing.

Jimmy Carter introduced democracy to places in Latin America and around the world using exit polling. It used to be, since Truman v. Dewey, that polls were pretty indicitave, and you seldom saw a 16-point swing like poor old Max Cleland got in touchscreen-voting Georgia.

I am beginning to see a pattern, that the Busheviks just need to get some polls out there foretelling their preordained outcome. They still don't have total Stalinist control of voting, nor would they use it if they had I suspect.

The illusion must be maintained.

I believe, that Ahnold cannot lose CA, because Uncle Karl and his bag of slimy tricks, borderline and criminal vote fraud strategies, are on his side.

Hence, the customary releasing of the Bushevik-storyline poll.

Ahnold, if he becomes Imperial Governor of Kalifornia, is in line to be the Emperor in 2017...Emperor I'm a Bushevik but my name ain't Bush so stop saying we're a hereditary Empire.

He may well serve the same function as Raygun.

But I am beginning to notice a pattern in these Bushevik "victories".

[jiacinto]

7. I hate to break it to you

But sometimes the voters do pick Republicans in close elections as much as it is hard for you to believe.

[Sephirstein]

8. Yes but...

They don't get 16 point swings on closed-source computerized voting systems.

[jiacinto]

12. Look

I fear now that people here will claim that every election has been "stolen". And then, when one actually is, no one will care. It's kind of like the "Boy who Cried Wolf".

[Bucky]

9. ha ha ha!

The little blue Florida by your comments illustrates your point perfectly. Dammit, Florida should have been "blue".

[carpetbagger]

10. 49.2% GOP sample? Did they use the Orange Co. White Pgs?

GallOP.

I hope this terrible vision of the future slaps some sense back into people who watch too much TV.

[TomNickell]

11. There's a hidden gotcha for the pollsters....

Suppose the polls show Arnold the winner with a solid plurality--35% to 20%, say. And a majority for recall.

BUT, the clear -majority- likely thinks Arnold is a buffoon and a probable disaster. A majority wants Davis out, but now it's between Davis and Buffoon. So don't most of the majority vote -against- the recall to prevent a greater evil.

This is, of course, on top of the obvious difficulties in predicting just -who- will vote in this bizarre situation.