Edwards takes big lead in SC

[Bombtrack]

North Carolina Senator John Edwards has taken the lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 16% of likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina say they would vote for Edwards while 42% remain undecided in the race. Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, the front-runner in three previous surveys, has dropped to 7% and is tied for second place with Wesley Clark.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of registered voters in South Carolina saying they would definitely vote in the Democratic presidential preference primary. The interviews were conducted September 25 through 29, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

In a ballot preference, Edwards is the only candidate with double-digit support. Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman follow Edwards at 7% each, with 6% for Howard Dean and 5% each for Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, and Al Sharpton.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/sc/

[Kahuna]

1. Okay... Guess it depends on what the meaning..

of big lead is. 42% are undecided, FCOL!

[im4edwards]

2. according to my math thats double Clark

who is supposed to be the 2nd coming. And all for the ignored poor relation of the field.

The 42% undecided simply attests to the excellent common sense of by southern brothers and sisters who realize that a lot can happen in three or four months and that on top of the fireworks of the last 3-4 weeks.

[Kahuna]

3. Look. I like Edwards. But 16% is not...

a can of whoop ass in his home state. It just isn't. :shrug:

[im4edwards]

6. while he was born there hes really a NC boy politically

and considering SC is the admitted last stand of Lieberman, its a very good outcome as of this point in time.

[Bombtrack]

9. why begrudge him. Why get hung up on what "big" is

it's not his homestate, it's his state of birth.

There's no need to respond negatively for the sake of being negative. I'm on Clark's mailing list, and plan on attending any of his appearances that come my way.

but people who are committed to Edwards aren't going to become dissalutioned with him just because he isn't getting the same media saruration that Dean and Clark have been getting. And they aren't going to warm up to your candidate any more by putting our positive news down.

It's not like Edwards is currently your candidate to beat particularly

[Kahuna]

13. Sorry.....

I just gave my honest opinion. Sorry if it offends you or makes you feel bad. Truly.

[Bombtrack]

4. he's still got more than twice the votes of anyone else

But Clark already being tied w/ Leiberman for 2nd is still good news for your camp. Clark and Kerry are my second choices.

[KittyWampus]

5. Edwards Is A GREAT Candidate

And I'm glad he's running and in the debates. He seems truly sincere.

Sure hope he serves the country in some capacity if he doesn't make it the White House.

[Kahuna]

8. Bombtrack. I swear I'm not trying to bust your chops

about Edwards. And this isn't about Clark. I'm just saying, IMHO, 16%, with 42% undecided isn't real good news.

[Bombtrack]

12. Opinion taken, but busting chops is exactly what your doing

if he's got twice as many voters commited to him than anyone else, he's probably got twice as many voters leaning towards him than anyone else, statistically.

it's good news for any candidate, when there numbers go up 50 percent, in too at least a temporary comfortable lead, in any important primary state, any time.

[PurityOfEssence]

22. That's precisely what I'd expect you to say

I don't know what sports teams you support, but I'm sure they're pathetic sissy losers. Shouldn't you be barking at some Deanies, or has the thrill worn off?

[MattNC]

7. i'd love

a Clark/Edwards or Edwards/Clark ticket. i'm still a little angry at Edwards' lack of focus on NC at times but i agree with him on a lot of issues so it's easier to ignore.

[Catch22Dem]

10. I'd love a Edwards/anybody or anybody/Edwards ticket

I think I'd go for Clark/Edwards but it's just way too early for me to commit yet.

[quinnox]

11. Edwards has also moved up in Iowa

He just might start to become a serious contender.

I have always liked Edwards, he was my first pick, until I learned more about Kerry. I think Edwards would be one of the best shots to beat Bush.

[robsul82]

14. Edwards, under the radar...

...has been slowly but surely climbing the ranks. Dean/Edwards 2004.

Later.

RJS

[im4edwards]

15. gee, didn't that Clinton guy start catching fire in the 4th quarter ?

And I seem to recall he wound up beating some guy named BUSH with chrisma and a populist and sincere message !

GO Edwards !

[robsul82]

17. Edwards, to be Clinton...

...needs 1) an SNL-ready body tic to parody and 2) to learn a musical instrument. Perhaps Mellencamp would let him on during a concert while he plays "Small Town" or something.

Later.

RJS

[Bombtrack]

16. that ticket would never happen

It's politically unworkable

[robsul82]

18. How...

...is it unworkable? Explain that one, I think they'd work well together.

Later.

RJS

[AP]

19. I've seen nothing to indicate any communality between these candidates.

But I think Edwards will be the VP if he isn't the nominee... well, except that I think Dean would need Clark on his ticket.

[im4edwards]

20. I'm not sure that egos would allow Dean/Clark or Clark/Dean

I think just leaving Edwards at the top of the ticket is best and get the New Mexico gov for veep.

The northern dems will continue to vote dem, we get at least some of the south and west and...

we win !

[Bombtrack]

21. Edwards doesn't help perceptionally or geographically

First of all I think Dean, with anyone as his vp, would get at most 100 electoral votes, NY and CA wouldn't be garenteed etc,

but forgetting about that, if everything went right for Dean(public opinion drastically changing about whether regime change was right, whether middle class would be ok with income taxes being raised), Edwards still wouldn't be close to the most prudent choice for Dean.

In his ideal scenario, Dean sitll would have to forget about every southern state, with the exception of Florida(where Graham would be the only candidate who could possibly give Dean a chance)

In NC, SC, GA, TN(all states in which Edwards has lived) as well as LA AR and VA, Dean's social liberalism alone(civil unions etc) would eliminate Dean. The gun-nuts are not going to vote for Dean, despite his super NRA-rating.

Also, Dean would need someone who's foreign policy cred is worn on there sleeve. Although Edwards has 6 years on key committees, he's not exactly a Poppy Bush, a Cheney, or what a Kerry, a Clark, or even a graham veep would be.

So, in the unlikely scenario of Dean's national competativeness, he's going to be battling for
1- Every Gore state that wasn't one by a huge margin, and
2- Close Bush states like NH, OH, MO, NV, and maybe FL and AZ

Edwards doesn't help in any of those places as much as Clark or Graham were. And he doesn't help Dean's personal, political and policy weaknesses. Independants who weren't anti-war and/or don't want there taxes raised aren't going to vote for Dean because his veep agrees with them. And those who don't relate to his angry-white-yale appeal, aren't going to look past it towards his non-blue-blood veep.

[Yupster]

23. That 42 % will swing

to the guys who win New Hampshire and /or Iowa.

[Bombtrack]

24. No, probably not

The same people probably aren't going to win NH, IO and SC

There probably isn't going to be 1 or even 2 people who clearly win Iowa, and nobody is expecting Dean and Kerry NOT to win NH. Dean and Kerry are putting a proportionatly much larger effort into winning NH than SC, particularly Dean, for strategic reasons.

In years past your statement might have been more acurate, but the schedule this election is designed to give the rest of the states mcuh more of an individual voice in the primary process.

[Yupster]

25. It's just my prediction

I could certainly be wrong.