*'s job approval (58% disapprove)- lowest point of his presidency (Harris)

[sabra]

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-24-2005/0004093359&EDATE=

Approval Ratings for President and Congressional Leaders Continue to Drop, According to Latest Harris Poll


The War Jumps to the Top of the List as the Most Important Issue for the
Government to Address

ROCHESTER, N.Y., Aug. 24 /PRNewswire/ -- President Bush's job approval
ratings are at their lowest point of his presidency as only 40 percent of U.S.
adults have a favorable opinion of his job performance, while 58 percent have
a negative opinion. This is a decline from just two months ago in June when
the president's ratings were 45 percent positive and 55 percent negative. Much
of this decline can be tied to the public's opinion on important issues. The
war has climbed to the top of the most important issues list and the economy
is now the second most important issue.

....

"How would you rate the job President George W. Bush is doing as president -
excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All Adults

TREND Positive* Negative**
2005 August % 40 58
June % 45 55
April % 44 56
February % 48 51
2004 November % 50 49
October % 51 49
September % 45 54
August % 48 51
June % 50 49
April % 48 51
February % 51 48
2003 December % 50 49
October % 59 40
August % 57 41
June % 61 36
April % 70 29
February % 52 46
2002 December % 64 35
November % 65 33
October % 64 35
September % 68 30
August % 63 37
July % 62 37
June % 70 28
May % 74 25
April % 75 23
March % 77 22
February % 79 20
January % 79 19
2001 December % 82 17
November % 86 12
October % 88 11
August % 52 43
July % 56 39
June % 50 46
May % 59 35
March % 49 38
February % 56 26

[Past_World_Doubt]

1. Bush will go worse than Lyndon B. Johnson....

He's just plain bad, period and will go down in history.

[mwb970]

3. And not in a good way, like Clinton. (n/t)

[Bob3]

2. So when does he break the 30% barrier next month?

N/T

[iconoclastic cat]

4. You'll know: it will be right before something blows up.

[NeoGreen]

7. Accoring to my excel analysis of the data...

A linear trend of his postive numbers since Oct 2001 (his high point) indicates he will hit 30% around Apr-06.

However, the chart trends suggest to me that he will likely plateau around 35% (likely due to those addicted to the kool-aid).

IMHO, the real question now is not how far * will drop but how many Repuke Congresscritters can be dragged down with him.

[Hugin]

11. Interesting analysis...

I agree the slow drift (meaning there are no rapid change events)
would probably yield a date in the spring of '06.

However, they are starting their Campaign '06 blitz. Which
will probably have some positive impact for * among the
gullible.

So, who knows.

[ProfessorGAC]

12. The Floor Is Lower

According to the curvature data of all opinion and voting data for the last 3 years, there is a floor of 24%. Those are the folks that would support Silverspoon if Satan himself came on TV and called him his pal and partner.

That 24% would just excuse it because Satan is obviously a democrat.
The Professor

[Hugin]

14. That would make sense...

24% is consistent with the random noise level in public opinion
surveys.

I read that somewhere once.... Pretty scary when a president has
an approval rating in the noise.

=/

[ProfessorGAC]

15. I Have Friends (Colleagues) At Both Pew and ARC

They do this for a living. Occasionally they'll send me numbers to peer review the work, if they're publishing under their own name. So, i get their take on things pretty regularly.
The Professor

[Hugin]

17. However, if it falls way below the "noise"...

Say, into the teens or below. The number becomes interesting
again. As it indicates an active dislike for the guy instead
of ambivalence among the uninformed.

I'll keep an eye on it.

:)

[ProfessorGAC]

19. I Think The Probability Is Under 1%

I'll call those guys today to make sure but i think that the 24% is the 95% CI floor. The stuff they already sent me is at home, not here in the office. But, given the sample sizes, by the time it gets to under 20%, the probability would have to be under 1%. The statistics are pretty easy to estimate for this kind of thing.
The Professor

[Hugin]

22. Feel free to PM me any thoughts on this...

When you find the information or if you remember something
else.

I find this very interesting.

:)

[Connie_Corleone]

5. Worst. President. Ever. n/t

[Montauk6]

6. You know my fear? And, I've gotta side with Cuppa Joe on this one...

These numbers, while damning indeed, really could become meaningless without the mechanism being in place to insure accurate, fair elections.

There was a great cartoon in the New Yorker, right after the 2004 Selection. A guy in a bookstore was perusing the cutout/bargain section and it contained books such as "The Lies of George W. Bush," "Dude, Where's My Country?," Richard Clarke's book, etc.

I guess the point is that we seem to take for granted that plummetting numbers mean something in THIS political context, almost like we naively took for granted that nobody with Bush's record could have won an election for dogcatcher let alone POTUS. Even if his poll numbers leading up to 11/04 were in his favor, none of them predicted a most-votes-ever victory.

Even if his numbers sink into the teens, it won't mean anything in either 2006 or 2008 unless something is done to prevent the cheating. The key is not whether they'll steal the election, the key is what will be done about it.

[Brotherjohn]

8. If Bush sinks into the teens, and Cheney wins, people will be screaming...

... "FRAUD!" from the rooftops. And not just us and Bev Harris.

So these numbers don't exactly mean "nothing". Even if Bush is in the 30s and any Repub candidate wins when he was picked to lose by a significant margin, many more eyebrows will be raise than in 2000 or 2004.

But you do have a point if Bush's (or Cheney's, or whomevers) numbers get back up into the mid-high 40s. Then, they could steal it without much of a fuss.

At this point, the only candidate they could run who would poll over 50, I think, would be McCain. That's my fear, that they'll run him. But the neocons would never alow it.

[Hugin]

13. "people will be screaming... Fraud!"

It didn't happen in 2000 or 2004... So, I'm reluctant to
start expecting it now.

[Brotherjohn]

18. Well, I said that in the case of Bush being in the teens.

In 2000 and 2004 he was at polling within a few points of Gore/Kerry (ahead in some).

Bush polls in the teens now, and Cheney wins, and it looks much more suspicious than 2000 or 2004. Even if he's in the low 30s.

High 30s to 40s, though, and I get less optimistic. They'll say "But Cheney isn't Bush... But Guliani isn't Bush..." or whatever. Plus, they'll start to look at the Dem Candidate vs. Repub candidate polls (whoever they'll be) and ignore the low Bush polls.

That being said, however, I place some trust in the body of public opinion polls (and maybe whatever exit polling we use next time) as a check on election results. If things keep going this bad for Bush, whatever Repub runs will also likely be polling way behind the Dem, and it will look fishy if they win.

[Hugin]

21. I see your point...

I wonder what their excuse for the present dip will be?

"Umm, it's due to the fact Rebubbalican voters are reluctant
to answer public opinion surveys."

That's my bet.

[Montauk6]

27. McCain'll simply disguise himself as a neocon just as GHW Bush

repainted himself as a supply-sider; the Freepers' hearts will all go a-flutter. Remember, they're not THAT tough to dupe.

But getting back to the main point, in your counter-scenario, yes, the people would scream, the Freeps would reply, "Get over it," the Congressional Black Caucus would challenge it (to probably no avail), the Democratic candidate (esp. if he/she's a DLC'er) will cry, "Can't we all just get along?" and then say something like, "My name is Wes and I ain't in this mess." And then what?

I sincerely hope the alarm clock is loud enough, but America, ya gotta admit, has been snoring heavily.

[warpheads]

9. More Bush Failure

It seems as though the Bush administration is having a hard time maintaining it's Neo-Con hard line against North Korea; formerly refered to as one of the axis of evil. When you look at the latest news
(http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050824/pl_nm/korea_north_usa_dc)
It appears as though they are trying to reinstate the Clinton administration approach to dealing with the North Koreans, which we can all understand: Most of us miss Bill Clinton. What I think we are now seeing is another important sign that the Bush administration policies and goals both nationally and internationally are falling apart. As to North Korea, the other little bully is winning the argument.

[Guaranteed]

10. The war and gas prices. nt

[Jim__]

16. lowest point - so far! - n/t

[bleedingheart]

20. You know what is depressing his approval could be 2% but he would still be

president......

[oasis]

23. Bush's war. He lied, they died. America is getting it.

[Lexingtonian]

24. *snigger*

The best part is, the Bush people and Republican Congressfolk are all under instructions to Don't Panic-Things Will Get Better.

And few of them actually believe it. The smart ones are looking at the subpollings and know that even a major Al Qaeda attack won't do them any good anymore. Then again, a lot of them have known that they've been living on borrowed time for a couple of years now.

Reaction to those first sub-38% polls are going to be fun to watch.

[DemocracyInaction]

25. Maybe we are fixated on the wrong numbers

Last week when one of these polls was slapped on the tv screen, the political analyst who was speaking pointed out that the only numbers worse than Bush's were those for the Democrats in Congress. The losers that lead us cannot get it through their heads that the republicans won't, don't and can't self-destruct. They win because they have no problem shooting their mouth off in public. There will be no impact on the republicans from these numbers unless we start being an actual, real life, opposition party. And in looking at the "pecentages", I would say that the numbers come in at slightly below "a prayer in hell of doing so"!!

[lancdem]

26. I think part of the problem is

people don't like any politicians right now. However, the Dems need to take advantage of this enormous opportunity provided by Bush's colossal fuck-up of a presidency.