Larry Johnson: WHY WE MUST LEAVE IRAQ

[txindy]

An excellent read:

Sometimes in life there are no good options. It is part of our nature to always assume that we can fix a problem. But in life there are many problems or situations where there is no pleasant solution. If you were at the Windows on the World Restaurant in the North Tower of the World Trade Center at 9 am on September 11, 2001 you had no good options. You could choose to jump or to burn to death. Some choice.

A hard, clear-eyed look at the current situation in Iraq reveals that we are confronted with equally bad choices. If we stay we are facilitating the creation of an Islamic state that will be a client of Iran. If we pull out we are likely to leave the various ethnic groups of Iraq to escalate the civil war already underway. In my judgment we have no alternative but to pull our forces out of Iraq. Like it or not, such a move will be viewed as a defeat of the United States and will create some very serious foreign policy and security problems for us for years to come. However, we are unwilling to make the sacrifices required to achieve something approximating victory. And, what would victory look like? At a minimum we should expect a secular society where the average Iraqi can move around the country without fear of being killed or kidnapped. That is not the case nor is it on the horizon.

We may even be past the point of no return where we could impose changes that would put Iraq back on course to be a secular, democratic nation without sparking a major Shiite counteroffensive. Therefore the time has come to minimize further unnecessary loss of life by our troops and re-craft a new foreign and security policy for the Middle East.


More here: http://noquarter.typepad.com/my_weblog/2005/08/why_we_must_lea.html

[autorank]

1. He is right on target with his analysis. Johnson never disappoints.

Thanks for sharing...

[txindy]

9. I'd love to see him spotlighted on a CNN followup to "Dead Wrong"

They never even covered the Plame/CIA case. I know he has strong feelings about that and would love to have him discuss it in detail. For, oh, so many reasons!

[autorank]

10. That's why they won't have him on. CNN is odious! But it would be

a great addition, presuming they want to tell the truth.

Remember Col. Hackworth, most decorated US Soldier and great journalist. They loved him on the cable networks until he came out against Iraq. Dropped him like a hot potato...they cable news people are anti-intellectual (meaning simply, they hate thinking).

[Lecky]

2. I was just reading this

I'm glad someone posted this here at DU.

[wli]

3. hmm, not a peep about protected heroin trafficking and Atta

I guess if you say that and have any reason to be believed you get killed.

[Quixote1818]

4. Wow, someone brave enough to take a cold hard look at reality

I am a very optimistic person. I always try to look on the bright side but I also am aware that for most of the planet poverty and disease are the rule. Most Americans are completely out of touch with reality. Larry Johnson does a brilliant job pushing all the feel good patriotism and politics that Americans get drunk with aside and presents us with the simple down to earth reality of the lose, lose situation in Iraq.

Great Read!!! Thank you LJ!

[Lecky]

5. Reality is really depressing in this case

Sadly...

[txindy]

6. It certainly is, isn't it?

D*amned if we do, d*amned if we don't. Thank you so much, Georgie. :grr:

[nickgutierrez]

7. You know... I'm starting to take a similar viewpoint:

There is no good option in Iraq. I think his assessment of the risks of both options are spot on, and I'm not sure where one option is necessarily better or worse than the other. The best chance we have to save Iraq, I think, might just be to get our military the hell out of there.

This isn't necessarily the same thing as giving up on Iraq - we can still fund their reconstruction, we can still train their police and their military (probably from an allied nation outside of Iraq), we can still give them whatever assistance necessary for the democratic process, but it'll be easier for us to be a trusted ally when we aren't waiving a gun in their face while we do these things.

Of course, there is the risk of civil war, but that is an equally strong possibility with the US military still in Iraq, in my opinion.

[txindy]

8. That does appear to be the best solution, considering the bad options

We're stuck. What we need to do now is get OUT of Iraq before Junior and his thugs use that country as a springboard to attack Iran. I don't believe it is just the Iraqi oil keeping us in that country, although that plays a large part. It's the proximity of Iraq to Iran and Syria that makes me very uneasy about the plans this admin. is making for our military.

[Carolab]

11. Like Dean always said, * blew it.

The only hope to try to prevent civil war and "keep the peace" was to bring in allied troops, including those from Muslim countries.

[Check12]

12. When will Americans learn to detect that their own shit

stinks.

Over and over we make the same bad decisions when dealing with armed conflicts. If I accept the bush doctrine I can justify occupying my next door neighbors house because he beats his wife. He never gave me any shit, but that does not matter. If you put it this simply anyone can understand it.

I am really tired of my people being the fucking evil ones.

[Karenina]

14. When they stop eating it! ;-)

[the_spectator]

13. I have issues with that analogy there

not the best way to put it, IMHO.

Stop the War! Bring the Troops Home!
Jump to our deaths or burn to a crisp! Stop procrastinating and pick one!

(3am loopiness in full affect, sorry!)

[leftchick]

15. Here are some HUGE truths amerikans don't understand...

Because their TVs don't tell them. Thank you Larry....

<snip>
There is no effective national government in Iraq. The current group meeting inside the Green Zone to draft the constitution has no real clout. True power is held by tribal chieftains and religious leaders scattered around country. Those leaders are playing both sides of the fence—keeping a toe in the political negotiations in Baghdad while providing money and protection to insurgents.

<snip>

The Sunni insurgents have control of the battlefield in the central belt of Iraq. Even today the United States military cannot keep a six mile stretch of highway open that runs from downtown Baghdad to the International Airport. U.S. diplomatic personnel and many key Iraqi Government officials live inside a security ghetto known euphemistically as the Green Zone. Even during the bleakest days of the war in South Vietnam, U.S. diplomats and soldiers could travel freely around Saigon without fear of being killed in bomb blast or kidnapped. We don’t have that luxury in Baghdad.

and another....

<snip>

We cannot meet the increased manpower requirements in Iraq without a draft. We do not currently have enough troops in the Army and the Marine Corps to supply and sustain that size of force in the field. But, even with a draft, we would be at least 15 months away from having the new batch of trained soldiers ready to deploy. More importantly, there is no political support for a draft. In other words, we’re unwilling to do what is required to even have a shot at winning.

[Disturbed]

16. Al Sistani is the actual leader of Iraq.

He is biding his time.

[corkhead]

17. I confess to having a hard time letting go

of the responsibility I believe we have as a country have to clean up the bushco has made, but the only way that would happen is for the Crawford Caligula to admit his mistake, beg forgiveness from the international community, and bring in a true multinational
"peacekeeping" force to clean up his frickin mess.

the chances of that happening are even lower than us actually fixing this mess ourselves.

I think things will turn when people have thought through the facts in this situation and come to your conclusion that it really is down to "jump or to burn"

what a disgrace that asshole and the dumbshits who voted for him have put on this nation.

[pberq]

18. Right on! U.S. out of Iraq NOW!!

"At a minimum we should expect a secular society where the average Iraqi can move around the country without fear of being killed or kidnapped. That is not the case nor is it on the horizon."

This is the key point for me. Any kind of acceptable resolution is nowhere in sight. As someone else said, the end result will be the same whether we leave tomorrow or five years from now, the only differnce is the number of casualties.