Latest Public Advisory from NHC on Katrina, 8 PM EDT

[steve2470]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/262354.shtml

000
WTNT32 KNHC 262354 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...CORRECTED TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO HURRICANE STATUS IN LOCATION...

...KATRINA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY LARGO SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST AND
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR... HURRICANE
TODAY AND ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE ARE STILL OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 83.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[jim3775]

1. This is concerning me more:

From the discussion

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF LOOP CURRENT AFTER 36
HOURS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD
ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL
OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH
BRING KATRINA UP TO 118 KT. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE
ROBUST AND BRINGS KATRINA UP TO 129KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

Also, the GDFL model shows a direct hit on NOLA.