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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:49 PM
Original message
On New Orleans TV, they're talking about 145 mph possible
Holy crap. God bless all of you there.

It's WWL-TV
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faithnotgreed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
1. i didnt know that
wow

be safe everyone
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
2. I hope everyone gets out safely. This may be the worst possible
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 04:56 PM by Radio_Lady
scenario New Orleans has faced in a long time.

Good luck and I'll pray for you... (although I cannot vouch for the positive effects of personal prayer).

Radio Lady

Live coverage via streaming video at:

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

from: http://fox8live.com

Katrina Threatens Louisiana
8/27/2005

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Several low-lying parishes have called evacuations - some mandatory, some voluntary - because forecasters say Hurricane Katrina is likely to slam into the Louisiana coast on Monday. There's a voluntary evacuation on Grand Isle. Plaquemines Parish has called a mandatory evacuation. Parish President Benny Roussel says people have the chance to leave before other parishes call evacuations, and should do so. St. Bernard Parish has called a precautionary evacuation for low-lying areas on the east end of the parish -- and at 10 a-m will recommend evacuation for the rest of the parish. Terrebonne Parish has recommended evacuation for all areas south of the Intercoastal Waterway. Lafourche Parish has called a voluntary evacuation south of highway 90.

(Copyright 2005 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)



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H5N1 Donating Member (777 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Radio Lady, who is that woman in the photo?
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. H5N1, that's my signature and...
It's me -- The photo was taken a few years ago when I was a sales rep for a national company.
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Lars39 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. All this time I thought it was Lila Lipscomb!
:D
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Oh, I remember -- the woman in Michael Moore's movie --
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 05:13 PM by Radio_Lady
Naw, it's just me... I didn't lose a son in the war, thank goodness!

Do I really look like her? (Maybe a little...)

You be the judge.

http://underbid.com/action/display/item/34686/sku/220816.html
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titoresque Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #12
28. I did for a second too!
very nice pic!
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H5N1 Donating Member (777 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Too Cool.
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #11
19. I thought you were somebody famous, honest
:-)
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Well, I'm sort of quasi famous. As one of the first women to do radio talk
in Miami and Boston. I spent more than three decades in TV and radio broadcasting, and now volunteer at a local PBS station.

Here's a picture of me in my first job, on a children's TV show in Miami, Florida (1957-58)



Used to work around the corner from Barbara Walters, who is a few years older than I am, at NBC. She was on the "Today" unit, I was working with Johnny Carson on the "Tonight" unit.

I dated Larry King in the 50s and again in the 70s, but didn't marry him!

Other than that, I'm a wife, mother, stepmother, grandmother and just all around fun-type gal!

Making peace a priority,

Radio Lady in Oregon

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H5N1 Donating Member (777 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Very interesting
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:28 PM
Response to Reply #21
29. Very cool, you've had a rich life ! nt
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #21
60. Hey...
...that's Skipper Chuck! I remember that show.
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #60
80. Yep, it's Skipper Chuck, now 80 years old and retired!
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 12:31 PM by Radio_Lady
I was his first First Mate!
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. Looped live satellite photo of storm cascading north in Gulf --
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H5N1 Donating Member (777 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #10
18. This has all the makings for The Perfect Storm
I hope it fools us and calms down or changes course
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #18
26. I think "Naw-leans" is in for a rough ride on Monday...
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 05:26 PM by Radio_Lady
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
16. What a nice portrait.
Very becoming.
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Thanks, cat_girl25.
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 05:16 PM by Radio_Lady
I appreciate any compliments sent my way -- now that I'm 66 years old!

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H5N1 Donating Member (777 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. wha?
What was your age when the photo was taken?
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. Good question. Let me count on my fingers and toes a minute --
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 05:25 PM by Radio_Lady
I was with the company from 1983 to 1992, so I must have been several years past age 50.

They did excellent retouching at that studio, right?
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #23
30. Retouching or not.
You are very photogenic. Be proud sis. :-)
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Dudley_DUright Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
3. That is what the national hurricane center is predicting
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
4. 35 feet high waves at core of Katrina in gulf, yowsa nt
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
5. Isn't global warming great? nt
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H5N1 Donating Member (777 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. I'm liking it less and less, like most things these days
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. Are any of you people anywhere near the storm?
I'm in Oregon, and we're having quite a beautiful day.

As a former resident of southeast Florida, I'm glad I'm here and not anywhere in the path of that storm.
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:57 PM
Response to Reply #13
69. I'm in Gulfport, MS - 60 miles east of New Orleans
Somewhere in the general target area. Really won't know for sure until tomorrow.
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RebelOne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #69
82. If I were you, I would be thinking about going north. n/t
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Divernan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. I think these storms pick up strength over warm water.
When this one was going over the Bahamas, the meteorologist reported water temp of 87 degrees caused it to pick up strength - so for sure, global warming of ocean temps translates to more violent storms/hurricanes. Is that simple enough for a Republican to understand?
(I used to try to avoid using the term "Republican" and would talk about neo-conservatives, but now I figure anyone who remains a Republican deserves to be lumped in with B ush.
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Yeah, that's it, bet on it. nt
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woodsprite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:22 PM
Response to Reply #9
22. Exactly, and according to the weather radar,
It just starting to reach the *REALLY* warm water farther in the Gulf. Right now, the eye is over the 80-85 degree water, but there is some 85-90 degree that it has to cross over.
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Midlodemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #22
83. I saw that on the weather channel yesterday.
Apparently, there is some real warm water phenomenon in the Gulf, whose name escapes me. That is why the forcasters were so freaked about this storm, because the storm would have to pass over them and gather strength.

Prayers to all in harm's way. Stay safe.
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:25 PM
Response to Reply #8
25. water temps
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 05:26 PM by steve2470
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. Wow -- it's gonna be HOT, HOT, HOT!
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Feron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #8
41. This is the part about liberals I hate....
Right outside my house people are elbow to asshole getting out of town. Do you really think that people in the path of the storm care for your sanctimonious bloviating? Hint: No.

While global warming is an important and complex issue, it is in extreme poor taste to snidely bring up the issue in this particular type of thread. I come to these threads for information, not to be inundated with crap i.e. people trying to politicize a looming natural disaster. Watching politicians galvanate amongst debris like overlords is already disgusting enough.

And if you think that water temps are solely determined by global warming, then please demand a refund on your University of Phoenix meteorological certificate. Perhaps global warming would be taken seriously if people wouldn't blindly blame it for every single weather anamoly.

Furthermore, If you have a "D" behind your name, does that mean that you deserve to be lumped with or implicitly agree with the DLC? Didn't think so. Nothing says losing strategy more than alienating potential allies.

Shoot, I know Republicans that hate Republicans ,but are apathetic to change their registration. Does it matter? Not at all because votes don't have a party affiliation. Democrats seriously need to drop these absolutely ridiculous "purity" tests. Let's keep the eye on the prize people.


And steve2470 you rock really hard. Your threads have caught information I would have missed otherwise.

I pray that New Orleans dodges another bullet.

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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #41
43. thanks, glad I could help, stay safe nt
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #41
49. Welcome to DU. nt
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kestrel91316 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #41
63. Chill, Feron. People have every right to bring the subject of
global climate change into a thread on a hurricane, given the undeniable relationship between greenhouse gases, warmer oceans, and more/worse storms.

You could always go to another board if you don't like one for Dems.
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Divernan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 10:27 PM
Response to Reply #41
75. You're known by the company you keep.
I know some pretty bright former Republicans who have switched their voter registration to Independent or Democrat. And it's not just Bush they are rejecting but the fact that their formerly Grand Old Party has been co-opted by a greedy, blood thirsty, power drunk and vengeful cabal (political clique or faction). If you support the current Republican party, then get off this board. If you oppose them, then follow the example of a fine former Republican like John Eisenhower, President Eisenhower's son, change your registration, and stop supporting the Republican party.

And do, pray, tell me what factor affects water temps more than global warming. Sadly, many Americans will have no concern for global warming until it personally affects their lives. And until the majority of Americans demand it, Bush et al will continue to deny reality and pursue their environmentally deadly policies. Ergo, it is totally appropriate to point out at this time that hurricanes like the present one will only get worse and occur more frequently because of global warming.

One of my kids is a disaster relief professional/manager working primarily with hurricane hit areas, and another is an environmental researcher/writer who has traveled the globe and been published in more than 20 languages. They have educated me. I am a master scuba diver who has experienced water temps of 89 degrees in the Bahamas, and over 90 degrees off Roatan Island in the Honduras. Although I cannot recite from memory the many scientific articles I have read about how the ocean current patterns have changed and continue to change because of global warming, I am confident this is the major factor in increasing water temps. Having seen dead areas of ocean bottom from high temps, I do take this phenomenon quite seriously. You're very flip with your insults and assumptions. It's a catastrophic problem. Try taking it seriously.
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OmmmSweetOmmm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
31. CNN is doing a piece now about possible Doomsday for New Orleans.
Cheerful buggers, aren't they?
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:51 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. That report suggests there might be 44,000 dead and the city covered
with water for SIX MONTHS if a big storm hits! Unbelieveable and terrible at the same time... some people won't or can't get out.

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OmmmSweetOmmm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. My thoughts are with all that are there. I hope that many have the good
sense to evacuate, and help as many who can't by themselves.
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:59 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. Ommm, your signature "photo" has a typo... did you know that
SHERRIF is a misspelling?

It should be SHERIFF (sorry, but I'm a former copywriter and notice these things). Correct or not, as you wish.

In peace,

Radio_Lady
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OmmmSweetOmmm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #34
53. I liked the graphic, and borrowed it from Distressed American.
He corrected his and I don't know how to correct mine. :)
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #53
81. Maybe you could PM him and get the new graphic. But that all may be
too much trouble! I understand...

In peace,

Radio Lady
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #32
35. There is an archived webstory:Lost City of New Orleans
They talk about 55,000 dead.

I find that a scenario that makes my knees weak. I hope nothing like that is realized.
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. Yes, I feel quite unsettled today. This whole hurricane business brings
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 06:23 PM by Radio_Lady
back some very disquieting memories of my 28 years in Florida.

I too hope things work out better than predicted.

Check out the "Louisiana" state forum.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=155x1795

People are checking in with each other there. It's heartwarming... wish I could help, but I'm thousands of miles away in Oregon.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #31
42. oh they always gloom & doom it
not possible for everyone to get out so why don't they put a sock in it, their negativity is not helping anything

just went out to get sandbags & traffic is backed up for miles already

ppl will be driving all night & some will end up in the path of the storm anyway, this is a big one

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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:19 PM
Response to Original message
37. Another story (2000) on the fate of New Orleans from sciencedaily.com --
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 06:20 PM by Radio_Lady
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LSK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:21 PM
Response to Original message
38. if anyone is there, PLEASE LEAVE
Dont be a victim. Your life is precious, you cannot save your house from a hurricane, there is no point in risking your life.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #38
46. evacuation is not without risk
traffic is nearly at a standstill

heat index of what was it, 108?

you can die just as good of a stroke as of a tree dropping on yr head


everybody can't leave, might as well do the best you can & hope for the best

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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #38
47. Listen to LSK; there is NOTHING you can do during the storm
to protect your property. If you can't go North, then come South to Central Florida; some of us will find the space for you and your pets. Don't try to "ride it out" please; I went through a category two last year and it was horrible; this is much, much worse!
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xmas74 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:28 PM
Response to Original message
39. They think it will easily reach level 4.
The waters are very warm which would react as a turbo charge for Katrina.
I have friends in NOLA. I've told them that if they can make it up my way I'll find them places to stay w/ friends and family. Everyone has volunteered (which is a huge surprise, considering some of the people who have volunteered places). They'd just have to worry about the gas all the way to MO-no motels/hotels or food as long as they are here.
If it reaches a 4 I don't know if NO can afford the renovations and rebuilds that will have to be done. Being so low it could be catastrophic.
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Radio_Lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:32 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. CNN's TV piece this evening makes the devastation seem very possible.
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 06:36 PM by Radio_Lady
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xmas74 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 01:40 AM
Response to Reply #40
77. The poor who cannot evac will be hit the most.
I'm hoping for a miracle right now but I suspect that we will see mass casualities.
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #39
70. Actually, it has the potential for a 5
Just depends on how unlucky we are.
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xmas74 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 01:39 AM
Response to Reply #70
76. I heard that too.
They are calling for a possible weak 5 but almost guaranteeing a strong 4 right now (unless w/ a turn at landfall it could go a strong 3 like Ivan-just read that-but don't count on it diminishing).
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geomon666 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 01:41 AM
Response to Reply #76
78. It's already a strong 4
A Category 5 is a hurricane with sustained winds over 155 mph.
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xmas74 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #78
79. I know.
But they said that if it turns (possibility but remote) it could decrease to a strong 3 (wunderground blog info that was recently updated).
Jeff Masters on the blogs there said the evac was waaaay too late.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:38 PM
Response to Original message
44. What 95 mph winds can do
(with gusts of 115):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1731707&mesg_id=1731932

People who were only a few miles from me had 85 mph winds and very little damage. 145 mph winds can destroy a building. PLEASE EVACUATE if you are in the storm's projected path!!!
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:38 PM
Response to Original message
45. 40 feet waves at center of Katrina per TV, WWL, wow nt
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:43 PM
Response to Original message
48. weather channel commentary, most recent
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

Now a very dangerous Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and forecast to become a Category 4 storm with winds as high as 140 mph everyone needs to take this hurricane very seriously and make plans now. Hurricane Katrina is expected to make a deliberate, gradual turn to the west-northwest during the night. Based on this trend of turning toward the Gulf Coast, hurricane watches have now been hoisted from Intracoastal City, La., to the Florida-Alabama border. This includes the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

From this point on through landfall, Hurricane Katrina will continue to turn, first toward the west-northwest Saturday, then to the northwest on Sunday, then finally toward the north before making landfall on Monday. Damaging winds, high storm surge, flooding rains, and possible tornadoes are expected at landfall. Once Hurricane Katrina makes landfall it will progress inland Monday into Tuesday with a trail of flooding rains and damaging winds across Mississippi and Alabama and then into Tennessee. Late Tuesday into Wednesday the very heavy rains and gusty winds will progress from the Tennessee Valley to the eastern Ohio Valley.

Hurricane Katrina is in a region of light wind shear, and is therefore anticipated to gather further strength, reaching a strong Category 4 storm prior to landfall.

The Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunters made some interesting observations Saturday morning. Just before 5 a.m., small hail was observed in the southeast quadrant at a height of roughly 8000-9000 feet. Around 11 a.m. EDT, concentric eyewalls (meaning two of them, one inside another) were witnessed.

<snip>
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #48
50. noaa/weatherunderground commentary as of 4 PM CDT
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 18

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2005


reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft...
as well as the Key West WSR-88D...show that Katrina is still in a
concentric eyewall cycle with the inner eyewall 9 N mi wide and the
outer 45-50 N mi wide. The central pressure has risen as high as
950 mb...with the latest central pressure at 945 mb. The aircraft
have found flight-level winds as high as 119 kt at 8000 ft in the
outer eyewall...although measurements from the NOAA stepped
frequency microwave radiometer suggest the surface winds in this
area are still less than 100 kt. The initial intensity remains
at 100 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion remains 275/6. Katrina is south of a deep-layer
ridge over the northern Gulf Coast. This ridge is forecast to
weaken as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the central
United States...and a new deep-layer ridge forms over the Florida
Peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic. This pattern change should
cause Katrina to turn northward during the next 72 hr and make
landfall over the northern Gulf Coast. Track guidance remains in
agreement with this scenario...although the GFS and GFDL have led
an overall shift to the west toward southeast Louisiana. This
shift is not unanimous...however...as the UKMET has shifted to the
east of its previous track. The new track is nudged just a little
to the west of the previous track...along the west edge of the main
cluster of guidance for the firs 24-36 hr and down the middle of
that cluster thereafter. The track calls for landfall in southeast
Louisiana in a little under 48 hr.


Katrina should strengthen as it comes out of the concentric eyewall
cycle. The GFDL is now calling for a peak intensity of 131 kt...
while the SHIPS model is calling for 130 kt and the FSU
superensemble 128 kt. The intensity forecast will call for
strengthening to 125 kt at landfall...and there remains a chance
that Katrina could become a category five hurricane before
landfall. There remains the possibility of another concentric
eyewall cycle before landfall...which could throw off the intensity
forecast a bit.


The new forecast track and wind radii require a Hurricane Watch for
and expanded portions of the northern Gulf Coast at this time.
Hurricane warnings will likely be required later tonight for parts
of the watch area.


Forecaster Beven




forecast positions and Max winds


initial 27/2100z 24.6n 85.6w 100 kt
12hr VT 28/0600z 24.9n 86.8w 105 kt
24hr VT 28/1800z 25.8n 88.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 29/0600z 27.5n 89.6w 120 kt
48hr VT 29/1800z 29.6n 90.0w 125 kt
72hr VT 30/1800z 34.0n 89.0w 60 kt...inland
96hr VT 31/1800z 38.5n 85.0w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 01/1800z 43.0n 78.5w 25 kt...extratropical




$$
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:47 PM
Response to Original message
51. recent visible satellite
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:49 PM
Response to Original message
52. interesting loop of Katrina going over florida
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geomon666 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #52
54. sigh...the pain
Actually I've been through worse. A lot worse. Better prepare New Orleans.
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geomon666 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:57 PM
Response to Original message
55. Latest Advisory
KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH AND
25-FOOT WAVES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

DATA FROM BUOYS INDICATE THAT 12-FOOT WAVES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
56. latest roads information
Hurricane Katrina Traffic Alerts


***CONTRAFLOW BEGINS SATURDAY AT 4 PM***

-- DOTD says all construction has been lifted along the interstate.

-- MS Hwy Patrol Troop K reporting light traffic on I-59 and I-10. At I-59 will be northbound only at 4 p.m. Saturday.

-- Troop A (Baton Rouge) reporting heavy traffic on I-10 and airline.

-- Troop C (Houma) and Troop I are reporting heavy traffic on Hwy 90 west from I-310 to Morgan City.

-- Troop D (Lake Charles) says traffic is moving smoothly on I-10 to Texas.

-- Troop L (Slidell) says heavy traffic at the I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange.

-- Smooth traffic at the Highrise, Crescent City Connection and Carrollton Interchange.

-- Ferries: 2 boats at Chalmette, 1 boat at canal and there are no boats at Jackson Gretna. Also, one boat at Belle Chasse and one boat at Pointe a la Hache are in service.

-- Heavy traffic northbound on the Causeway.

-- No tolls at the Causeway and the CCC.

-- Alternate routes for Covington: Hwy 21 or Hwy 25.

-- Alternate routes for Slidell: Hwy 190 or Hwy 41.

Closures of LADOTD bridges/locks in District 02

Locks:
At 2:00pm, Saturday, August 27, 2005 the Ostrica Locks will be closed to marine traffic.
At 6:00pm, Saturday, August 27, 2005 the Empire Locks will be closed to marine traffic.

Bridge Closures:
At 6:00 am, Sunday, August 28, 2005, ALL of the following bridges will be closed to navigation traffic:
US 11 north and south draw
Rigolets Pass
Chef Mentuer Pas
Bayou LaLoutre (Yscloskey)
Bayou Barataria (Kerner/ Lafitte)
Belle Chasse Bridge on La 23 (Judge Perez)
Claiborne Bridge (Judge Seeber)
US90 over IHNC (Danziger Bridge)
Harvey Canal Bridge (4th street)
Bayou Des Allemends

Where does Contraflow end?

I-59 going north ends in Meridian, MS
I-55 going north ends in Jackson, MS
I-10 going west ends in Baton Rouge

(We will have more updates as that information becomes available.)
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #56
57. contraflow instructions
CONTRAFLOW INSTRUCTIONS - The colors refer to arrows on the large map accessible by clicking here.

I-10 West Contraflow Lanes:

The eastbound and westbound lanes of I-10 from Clearview Parkway in Metairie to I-55 North in LaPlace will be used as westbound lanes. On the Contraflow Plan, the normal westbound lanes are shown with BROWN arrows and the Contraflow (eastbound) lanes are shown with BLUE arrows.
All I-10 West entrances through New Orleans, Metairie and Kenner will be used in their normal manner to gain access to I-10 West.


I-55 North Contraflow Lanes:

The northbound and southbound lanes of I-55 from I-12 in Hammond to the Mississippi state line will be used as northbound lanes. On the Contraflow Plan, the normal northbound lanes are shown with RED arrows and the Contraflow (southbound) lanes are shown with BROWN arrows.
Traffic traveling I-55 North (BROWN) will be diverted onto I-55 North Contraflow and will only be allowed to exit at two locations: Exit 47 (LA-16) in Amite and Exit 61 (LA-38) in Kentwood.


I-59 North Contraflow Lanes:

The northbound and southbound lanes of I-59, north of the I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange, will be used as northbound lanes. On the Contraflow Plan, the normal northbound lanes are shown with PURPLE arrows and the Contraflow (southbound) lanes are shown with GREEN arrows.

BROWN Arrows (I-10/I-55 North to Hammond and Mississippi):
In LaPlace, the I-10 West (BROWN) lanes will be diverted to I-55 North toward Hammond and Mississippi. Traffic will not be allowed to continue on I-10 West at this interchange.
All traffic traveling on I-55 North will travel in the existing northbound lanes.
When traffic traveling on I-55 North reaches the I-55/I-12 interchange in Hammond, I-55 will begin to Contraflow (both the north and south lanes will travel north into Mississippi).

BLUE Arrows (I-10 West to Baton Rouge):
Traffic destined for Baton Rouge may enter the Contraflow (eastbound) lanes from Clearview Parkway, Veterans Boulevard or Williams Boulevard in New Orleans (see diagrams).
Traffic destined for Baton Rouge may enter the Contraflow (eastbound) lanes from I-10 West via a cross- over at the Clearview Parkway overpass. This is the only opportunity to enter the Contraflow (eastbound) lanes from I-10 West without exiting and re-entering the interstate.
In LaPlace, I-10 Contraflow traffic (BLUE) will be diverted onto the westbound lanes of I-10 and will continue west on I-10 toward Baton Rouge.

RED Arrows (Lake Pontchartrain Causeway to Covington, I-12, Hammond, Mississippi):
Northbound traffic on the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway (RED) will be diverted onto I-12 West (RED) at the US-190/I-12 interchange and will continue on I-12 West to Hammond.
I-12 West (RED) will be diverted onto I-55 North (RED) at the I-12/I-55 interchange in Hammond.
I-55 North (RED) will continue north into Mississippi.

GREEN Arrows (I-10 East to I-59, North to Slidell, Mississippi):
I-10 East traffic (GREEN) from New Orleans will cross the I-10 Twin Spans using the three eastbound lanes.
Contraflow of I-59 will begin at the I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange.
At the I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange, the left and center lanes of eastbound I-10 will be diverted onto southbound I-59 (GREEN). Only the right lane will continue onto I-59 North (PURPLE).
The I-10 East (GREEN) traffic will not be allowed to continue on I-10 East or enter I-12 West.

PURPLE Arrows (I-59 North to Mississippi from I-10 West):
I-10 East traffic (GREEN) from New Orleans will cross the I-10 East Twin Spans using the three eastbound lanes.
Only the right lane (GREEN) will continue onto I-59 North (PURPLE).
All traffic on I-10 West (PURPLE) from Mississippi will be diverted on I-59 North (PURPLE) at the I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange.
I-10 West traffic will not be allowed to continue westbound on I-10 or I-12.

ORANGE Arrows (I-12 Westbound - Covington/Hammond):
Traffic traveling on I-12 West (RED) between Covington (US-190) and Hammond (I-55) will NOT be allowed to continue on I-12 West. This traffic must divert onto I-55 North.
Traffic traveling on I-12 West between Slidell (I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange) and Covington (US-190) will NOT be allowed to continue I-12 West. This traffic will be diverted onto US-190 West.
Traffic traveling on US-190 West will be allowed to continue to Baton Rouge.
All Interstate exit ramps will be open to normal traffic flow. Interstate exit ramps in the Contraflow lanes will be limited and marked with variable message boards.

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/hurricane/evacroutes.htm
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:17 PM
Response to Original message
58. tons of traffic info at the link
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
59. no hotel rooms in Houston per WWL-TV nt
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #59
61. what?
No way. Of all the hotels in this large city, they can't all be booked. :wow:
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #61
62. they keep saying that in no nt
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:30 PM
Response to Original message
64. latest commentary from weather.com
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

Now a very dangerous Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and forecast to become a Category 4 storm later tonight with winds as high as 140 mph. Everyone along the northern Gulf needs to take this hurricane very seriously and put action plans into play now. Hurricane Katrina has begun to make a deliberate, gradual turn to the west-northwest during the last few hours. Based on this trend of turning toward the Gulf Coast, hurricane watches have now been hoisted from Intracoastal City, La., to the Florida-Alabama border. This includes the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. These will likely be changed to warnings later tonight.

From this point on through landfall, Hurricane Katrina will continue to turn, first toward the west-northwest Saturday, then to the northwest on Sunday, then finally toward the north before making landfall on Monday. Well ahead of the center there will be high surf crashing ashore in the northern Gulf starting Saturday into Sunday. You'll need to use extreme caution along all of the northern Gulf beaches from Louisiana to western Florida due to this increased surf. Extreme damaging winds, high life threatening storm surge, deadly flooding rains with possible tornadoes are expected at landfall. Once Hurricane Katrina makes landfall it will progress inland Monday into Tuesday with a trail of flooding rains and damaging winds across Mississippi and Alabama and then into Tennessee. Late Tuesday into Wednesday the very heavy rains and gusty winds will progress from the Tennessee Valley to the eastern Ohio Valley.

Hurricane Katrina is in a region of light wind shear, and is therefore anticipated to gather further strength, reaching a strong Category 4 storm prior to landfall.

The Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunters made some interesting observations Saturday morning. Just before 5 a.m., small hail was observed in the southeast quadrant at a height of roughly 8000-9000 feet. Around 11 a.m. EDT, concentric eyewalls (meaning two of them, one inside another) were witnessed.

<snip>
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:32 PM
Response to Original message
65. info for Orleans Parish
Expires 9:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2005

Statement as of 5:00 PM CDT on August 27, 2005


... Hurricane Watch expanded to include the Mississippi coast...

... Hurricane Watch in effect for southeast Louisiana
including the Metro New Orleans area... .

... Hurricane Katrina continues to move slowly west in the
southern Gulf of Mexico...

... Areas affected...
in southeast Louisiana...

Assumption... St James... St John The Baptist... St Charles... St
Bernard... Terrebonne... Orleans... Jefferson... Plaquemine...
Lafourche... St Tammany... Tangipahoa... Livingston.

In coastal Mississippi...
Hancock... Harrison... Jackson

... Watches and warnings...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect from east of Intracoastal City
east to the Alabama-Florida border area. This includes the Metro
New Orleans area... and the Mississippi coast. Hurricane warnings will
likely be required for portions of Hurricane Watch area later tonight
or Sunday.

... Storm information...
at 4 PM CDT... the center of Hurricane Katrina was located near
latitude 24.6 north... longitude 85.6 west or about 380 miles
southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The hurricane has shown little change in strength during the
past few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph... with
higher gusts. Hurricane Katrina is a category three hurricane on the
Saffir Simpson scale. Some strengthening is possible during the
next 24 hours and Katrina could become a category four hurricane.

Hurricane Katrina is moving slowly west near 7 mph with gradual turn
to toward the west northwest expected during the next 24 hours.

... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
residents of southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi should
make preparations for the potential landfall of a major hurricane
late Sunday night and early Monday... with the possibility of damaging
hurricane force winds and high storm surge.

Recommended and mandatory evacuation orders are in effect
for many southeast Louisiana parishes and coastal Mississippi
counties. Residents in southeast Louisiana... should follow evacuation
recommendations from local Parish officials.

... Storm surge and storm tide impacts...
Katrina is expected to make landfall along northern Gulf of Mexico
coast as a major hurricane. While exact location landfall is
uncertain at this time... significant and life threatening storm surge
up to 18 feet above normal is possible near and to the right of the
landfall area.

... Wind impacts...
east to northeast wind of 10 to 15 mph should continue over
southeast Louisiana through Sunday... then increase Sunday night.
Tropical storm force winds are likely to overspread the coastal areas
Sunday evening and the remainder of the inland areas by daybreak
Monday. Hurricane force winds are likely late Sunday night
and Monday morning.

... Rainfall...
squalls and heavy rain associated with Hurricane Katrina are not
expected to affect the area until late Sunday afternoon and
continue through Monday.

... New information...
a Hurricane Watch has been extended to include the Mississippi coast.

... Next update...
the next local statement will be issued around 730 PM CDT.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/US/LA/062.html
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:35 PM
Response to Original message
66. Go here for Mississippi and Alabama advisories
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:38 PM
Response to Original message
67. more info about Katrina here
AUG 27 - 6:10PM UPDATE

Latest satellite and RECON data suggests Katrina may have begun to intensify rapidly.

The forecast track continues to show the New Orleans to Mobile area is at greatest risk, and there is significant chance of landfall as a CAT 4 or CAT 5 hurricane.

A complete update will be issued at 7:45PM CDT

Steve

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:52 PM
Response to Original message
68. WWL TV says Katrina may be larger than Ivan nt
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #68
71. Steve, with all your weather info, you should come visit the Weather Group
We would welcome your postings there, too. It would help to liven the place up a bit.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=328
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:08 PM
Response to Reply #71
72. Thanks for the invite. Right now I'm trying to be the "town crier"
Hurricanes and severe weather is what gets me interested.
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:12 PM
Response to Original message
73. info from steve gregory, latest
AUGUST 27 - 7:35PM CDT

DANGEROUS HURRICANE TO HIT GULF COAST MONDAY

EYE WALL REPLACEMENT COMPLETED


The latest Vortex RECON Report shows Katrina has finished with the eye wall replacement cycle that
began around 7AM this morning. At that time, the eye was closed, with a diameter of 9NM, and a pressure
that bottomed out at 940mb -- a reading normally associated with a CAT 4 hurricane. However, at that time,
an eye wall replacement cycle began in which the existing, very small diameter eye begins to break down as a
new wall of thunderstorms forms with a much wider diameter. During this process, the central pressures and
winds tend to fluctuate, and usually lead to a a weakening -- with the pressure going up, and the max winds
going down. This is a very normal cyclical pattern indicative of intense hurricanes. Some do a wall replacement
once every 24-36 hours, others seem to do it on an almost continuous basis! But typically with intense storms,
it begins when the eye has al diameter of 5-10NM. An 'typically, the new eye wall is anywhere from 15-30NM
across. In my experience, the more frequent the cycling in a storm, the smaller the diameter of the outer eyewall.
And the cycling can be done within 6hrs or less. With other storms, like Katrina, the cycling is much less frequent,
but also takes longer to complete. At nearly 12 hours, it appears the last remnants of the inner eyewall have finally
dissipated.

But even more unusual is the diameter of the outer eye. During the day, the RECON reported (and microwave imagery later
confirmed) the outer wall diameter reached at least 55NM across. At that same time, MAX winds at Flite Level had fallen off
to 83KTS, and the pressure had risen by 10mb.

As I compose this, the elliptically shaped eye is 40NM across - and is CLOSED off (though 'ragged looking' per
the crew's verbal report), and the pressure is 944mb, down 6mb in the last 3 hours. More significantly, the RECON
found a MAX flight level wind of 119KTS in the EAST quadrant about 3 hours ago, and 101Kts 2 hours ago. This
is the first time that the 'normal' pressure : wind speed has been observed. Normally, this would correlate with about
115mph sustained surface winds. However, another aircraft using SFMR -- could only locate surface winds under
100kts. So for the time being, NHC has simply left the official advisory winds as they have been all day long -- right
at 100kts. And based on imagery loops, I believe we have begun a major intensification phase that will bring Katrina
to CAT 4 intensity tonight. When a storm intensifies (pressures fall, diameter of the eye usually decreases) it is first
reflected an increase in the wind speeds in the 5,000-10,000 foot range (850mb-700mb). It takes some time,
(1-3 hours?) for the strong winds to be observed at the surface. There are a lot of complicated reasons for this, but
friction at the air/ocean interface is one major reason.

Another defining 'attribute' of Katrina has been it's inability to maintain a closed, convective eyewall in the northwest quadrant.
On of the more obvious reasons has been a weak, but persistent, northerly wind shear along with a lot of dry air, to the
northwest of storm, which was associated with the circulation around the large upper air TROF off the east coast of the U.S.,
and the strong high pressure ridge centered over Louisiana. This strong high pressure aloft was THE KEY reason that Katrina
has been moving WSW ever since it made landfall near Miami. However, despite the models generally not handling this WSW
motion (they forecast a due west motion) -- they all have been forecasting the ridge to weaken over the Gulf of Mexico as a very
large, long wave TROF forms from the Great Lakes region southward to the north central Gulf of Mexico. The GFS was the first
to recognize this hemispheric scale pattern change 5 days ago, followed by the NOGAPS and UKMET models 2 days ago - and
finally by ALL models by yesterday. The PRECISE TIMING, LOCATION and strength or weakness in the ridge line is where the
models differ. As is often the case, the 'devil is in the details'.

<snip>

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html
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steve2470 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
74. another good website
www.hurricanealley.net
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