10 PM CDT advisory from NHC for Hurricane Katrina

[steve2470]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/280245.shtml

000
WTNT32 KNHC 280245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 25.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[steve2470]

1. Head of NHC told NO Mayor that this is the big one

and recommended mandatory evacuation asap.

[steve2470]

3. up to 25 feet storm surge predicted nt

[Corgigal]

4. Is that enough to take out the levees

In New Orleans?

[steve2470]

8. I'm not sure but the NO mayor is now worried nt

[jsamuel]

2. Everyone be as safe as possible, error on the side of safety

New Orleans may not be able to take a direct hit.

[SoCalDem]

5. satellite loop.. and water vapor pic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

[smbolisnch]

6. This is so scary.

Everyone please get out of the path if you can.

[tedoll78]

7. I've never heard a public official speak so grimly about a hurricane.

This is incredible. He was no-holds-barred blunt when talking about how serious this thing is. I've gotta give him big credit for that.

[steve2470]

9. Yes. If you don't take him seriously, you weren't listening nt

[HeeBGBz]

21. Yeah, I saw that too. Spooked me big time

Gusts to 175 and storm surge of 20-25 feet.

[fishnfla]

10. Avila speaks, I listen

whomever this guy is, he seems to call the shots right- his discussion is always the most straightforward

Edit: he his guy, she her girl


OH god please fizzle this storm

[ewagner]

11. In thos graphic

two things stand out:

1. This is a BIG, BIG Storm
2. The eye has become very well defined...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Pithy Cherub]

12. They keep saying katrina is going to grow stronger overnight!

Evacuation and the choice of a route is important because of all the rain this hurricane is bringing. The other very scary part is because it's moving so slowly it will be completely dark when it hits.

Good Luck Gulf Coasters! :grouphug:

[geomon666]

22. It's growing stronger right now

Every time there's a new advisory the storm pressure keeps dropping which means the storm is getting stronger.

[steve2470]

13. 45 feet seas estimated in core of Katrina nt

[steve2470]

14. "We are going to deal with something we have not seen in our history"

per New Orleans mayor.

[lavenderdiva]

16. background question: What is the NHC?

is this guy on television saying this? If so, where are you able to watch him? I wanna see...

[steve2470]

17. NHC = National Hurricane Center in Miami, part of federal govt.

They may rerun the mayor's appearance. He's off now. WWL TV in NO, www.wwltv.com streaming video link

[lavenderdiva]

23. thanks!

I miss Angela Hill & Garland Robinette on WWL-TV. I'm a New Orleanian from waaaayyyy back!

[Corgigal]

18. Did you also see

the newscasters are telling their viewers that they got their families out of the state? I've never heard something like that before but that should make the viewers think.

[steve2470]

19. Yeah that was pretty incredible. Guess the anchors are taking a chopper

to leave. I don't see how they could stay any other way.

[MidnightWind]

15. The impact of this storm will extend well beyond the immediate strike zone

Hurricane Hugo in 1987 made its initial landfall near Charleston, SC with wind speeds of approximately 140 miles per hour. It proceeded to track through the center of South Carolina and 12 hours later, and some 175 miles away from its initial landfall, struck Charlotte, NC, totally devastating the city--with wind speeds of 100 miles per hour. That is what a Category 4 storm can do, and do hundreds of miles away from its initial landfall.

[Bluebear]

25. This map shows it as a hurricane all the way into Tennessee perhaps?

[steve2470]

26. If it moves fast I'm sure it will be nt

[steve2470]

20. Discussion by NHC of Katrina

000
WTNT42 KNHC 280249
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING
FROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING
THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING
IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING
KATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA
UP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO
FORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE
THEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/280249.shtml?

[steve2470]

24. Lord I got sick of NO TV, so I just turned it off

It all depends on the track. Good luck LA and NO and MS.

[geomon666]

27. Difference between a CAT 1 and a CAT 5

CAT 1:



CAT 5:



Please, if you can, leave. Now and not later. You may not be able to later.

[steve2470]

28. Your DHS gif always makes me think of the Nazis

I'm sure that's the intent :-)

[geomon666]

29. Yes.

Gotta love Maynard. :)