In the path of Katrina? Please read this (especially NO DUers)

[Penndems]

This was posted on the weather website Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), in Dr. Jeff Masters' blog. Dr. Masters is a meteorologist who create the WUnderground site.

The last paragraph certainly warrants particular attention.
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The eyewall replacement cycle that began at about 8am this morning has ended. The 8pm EDT Hurricane Hunter pressure reading was 942 mb, down 2mb from the pressure at 6:45pm. No inner eyewall was found, just an elliptical 30-40nm eyewall. We may be on the verge of a rapid deepening phase, since the shear and dry air on the northwest side of the hurricane appear to be lessening, and the hurricane is moving over a deep layer of warm water of almost 90F. The areal size of the hurricane continues to expand, and Katrina is growing from a medium sized hurricane to a large hurricane. Where the pressure will bottom out after this deepening phase is anyone's guess, and I believe something in the 915 - 925 mb range is most likely, which would make Katrina a strong Category 4 or weak Category 5 hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. The deepening phase may last longer than usual for a major hurricane, since Katrina is expanding in size and thus has more mass to spin up.

After this phase of deepening, another eyewall replacement cycle will occur, and the timing of that cycle will be worth billions of dollars and perhaps many lives. There is no way to predict when this eyewall replacement cycle will occur. Another factor will be the timing of the tides--if Katrina hits at high tide, there may be billions more in damage. Tidal range (difference between high and low tide) at Bay St. Louis near New Orleans is two feet. High tide will occur around 8am Monday, and low tide at 8pm. There is still the possibility, too, that the trough that is now steering Katrina to the north will also create enough shear to reduce her to a Category 3 storm at landfall. This is what happened to Hurricane Ivan last year.

New Orleans finally got serious and ordered an evacuation, but far too late. There is no way everyone will be able to get out of the city in time, and they may be forced to take shelter in the Superdome, which is above sea level. If Katrina makes a direct hit on New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane, the levees protecting the city will be breached, and New Orleans, which is 6 - 10 feet below sea level, will fill with water. On top of this 6 feet of water will come a 15 foot storm surge, and on top of that will be 20 foot waves, so the potential for high loss of life is great. Given the current track and intensity forecast, I'd put the odds of this at about 20%.

<snip>

Dr. Jeff Masters
Bio: http://www.wunderground.com/about/jmasters.asp

Weather Underground website:
http://www.wunderground.com/

[Boomer]

1. Pressure down to 908mb

That's BELOW the level for Camille.

[Penndems]

3. Anybody in the strike zone, particularly in New Orleans, needs

to get out NOW. I can't stress that emphatically enough. Since Katrina has been upgraded to a CAT 5, staying would be downright suicidal.

To all those still partying in the Vieux Carré: Pack up, get out and go north IMMEDIATELY. Your very life depends on it.

[Massacure]

11. Camille was 905.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

This sucker is stronger than Ivan.

[HereSince1628]

2. Oh God, that is gloomy. Hope that the storm weakens.

[Penndems]

4. We can only hope and pray that the loss of lives and property

will be minimal. Anyone who's still in the strike zone needs to board up and get out IMMEDIATELY.

[HereSince1628]

7. We can also donate to relief funds and volunteer

as our abilities meet calls of those directing the relief.

[Penndems]

10. Amen to that

And we plan to donate to the Red Cross this afternoon.

[SlowDownFast]

5. kick for get-out-of-dodge-time

make a party out of it. Call into work (they'll understand) and take a few dayz off.

Find a motel in the country, several hours out of N.O. (the ones near major cities will be full).

Watch the mayhem from afar.

But get out of the way of this storm, no matter what.

Better safe than sorry.

[Penndems]

6. Go to Shreveport, Baton Rouge, or even Little Rock

If you live in

Mississippi (Biloxi, Gulfport, Ocean Springs, Pascagoula)
Alabama (Mobile, Bayou Le Batre, Gulf Shores, Dothan, Montgomery)

Go as far north as you can - just not to a town located anywhere near the Mississippi River (e.g., Memphis).

The storm surges will travel upstream.







(on edit: typo)

[Boomer]

8. Why is the NOLA mayor stalling?

It's after 9am EST and he STILL deciding whether or not to call for a mandatory evacuation. He seems paralysed.

FEMA officials are starting to appear on the weather channels, stressing the danger of the storm and the need for people to LEAVE. I get the impression they're now doing an end around the mayor because he is simply not reacting.

Even if the mayor does call for a mandatory evacuation at this point, probably fewer than 12 hours of time remain. The tropical storm winds will hit well in advance of the hurricane landfall. Which means flooding of low-lying roads and slick conditions of rain and wind that will increase the risk of accidents to block escape routes.

The delay in taking this hurricane seriously approaches criminal negligence.

[Penndems]

12. The people in the greater New Orleans metropolitan area can't

sit around, twiddling their thumbs, waiting for this idiot to call the shots. They need to evacuate IMMEDIATELY, if not sooner. The longer he dawdles, the greater the chance of catastrophic losses.

Sheesh, talk about rank incompetence!

[Boomer]

13. What is his problem?

None of the national reports give any details as to what is holding him back. But seeing FEMA jump in to urge people to leave makes it obvious there is some kind of disconnect between the two camps.

Landfall may not be until Monday, but the tropical storm winds will be arriving soon. So you're probably looking at 12hours of evacuation time left. That's not enough for a city that size.

Boggles the mind to hear media interviews with people who are staying to protect their homes and businesses. As if you can do anything to mitigate the damage with your puny little presence.

The emotional resistance to reason seems to fly in the face of survival instinct. But then, I suppose if you distribute the tendency to flee versus the tendency to stay in place throughout a human population, at least 50% of them will survive a disaster.

[Penndems]

15. He's holding a news conference very shortly

Turn on CNN, if you don't have it on already.

[MidnightWind]

9. Remember, Hurricane Hugo did extensive damage to Charlotte, NC

some 175 miles away from the initial landfall of Hugo (near Charleston), and it was only a category 4 storm with winds around 140 miles per hour. Go NOW and go as far as you possibly can to get out of the path of this storm. There is NO place safe with winds like this and this one is also packing a ton of rain with it as well, and is expected to hit at high tide.

[greekspeak]

14. If you are still there, come visit us in Tallahassee!!!

We are apparently going to be to the east of this heinous monster. Tallahassee is a very nice city with lots of great people, beautiful trees, and sweet tea. Just GET OUT OF THERE, FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS GOOD!!

[barbaraann]

16. Here's who's responsible:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4480507

[Penndems]

17. I take some comfort in seeing that James Lee Witt had a hand

in the planning. He was the BEST FEMA Director we've ever had. Wish he was at the helm now; I'd feel a heck of a lot better.

[barbaraann]

18. But I see no evidence of any real planning from these people.

Unfortunately it looks to me like he is in it for the money, just like the GOP profiteers.

I really hope someone can prove me wrong.

[Penndems]

19. I remember Director Witt from the Clinton Administration

He's a good, decent, honorable man - the kind of public servant you want to have in a position that requires a cool head, intelligence, leadership and long-range planning ability.

I have no doubt that he's using the expertise he gained as Arkansas Emergency Management Director, as well as FEMA Director, to help (not hinder) the people of this country.

[barbaraann]

20. That's what I would have thought until I saw this article.

I know he did an outstanding job under Clinton but I see no evidence of outstanding planning for this potential disaster.

[Penndems]

21. Let me put it this way:

Under Daddy Bush's Administration, FEMA was a dumping ground for Bush political appointees. It took FEMA reps OVER A WEEK to finally go and render assistance to South Florida after Hurricane Andrew.

When James Lee Witt was Director of FEMA, agency reps were at the disaster site 24 HOURS AFTER the event.

The Department of Homeland Security might be full of politicos, but I take comfort in the fact that there is a voice of intelligence and experience like James Lee Witt's.








(on edit: typo)

[barbaraann]

22. I truly hope he hasn't sold out.

n/t

[Penndems]

23. Take comfort - I don't think so

He's known as an honorable, decent man.