Katrina damage forecast

[jim3775]

Urgent Weather Message for Orleans, LA
Top of pageTable of contents for Orleans, LA
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

[qanda]

1. That is frightening!!!

God help them all.

[ohio_liberal]

2. OMG, then why are they telling people to go....

...to hotels and stay in rooms 3 stories or higher?

[htuttle]

3. Because the city might flood to a depth of 26 feet or so

Basically, if you're stuck there, you're fucked. Looks very bad no matter where you take shelter.

[charlyvi]

4. Some can't get out.

Any lower and they will drown. It's the best choice in a situation that has no good choices. God help them.

[Mikimouse]

8. Its called vertical sheltering, been around in the Disaster Management

literature for a long time. there are advantages to doing this, especially in the event of a large storm surge, which NO is lkely to get. Many years ago, in Mobile, during one of the large hurricanes (cannot remember the name right now), some of the residents decided to have a hurricane party in a hotel on the beach, just to demonstrate how safe they were (there was a disaster subculture in Mobile at the time). When the surge hit, the bottom part of the hotel was literally washed away, with the partygoers as well. Interestingly, the upper floors survived the surge.

Edit for spelling

[Double T]

5. This will be a huge human and economic disaster......

that will affect all of us. The price of oil and gasoline will soar even higher beginning tomorrow.

[msongs]

6. link? nt

[Catch22Dem]

7. We used to ride out Cat5 storms with ease

This was in Okinawa where they were smart enough to build EVERYTHING out of concrete. Sure, it was ugly as hell, but we stayed safe.

[theHandpuppet]

9. What are the primary agriculture products from LA/Mississippi?

I would imagine any agricultural interests in the area will also be devastated.

[Fla Dem]

10. Afraid for all those people they are putting in Super Dome.

That thing will surely lose its roof and all those people will be exposed. I can't believe what this will be like. So afraid for all thos people. I fear there will be many deaths.

[steve2470]

11. HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KLIX.shtml

000
WTUS84 KLIX 281521
HLSLIX
LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-281900-

HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1015 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...HURRICANE KATRINA NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 175 MPH...

...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING
HURRICANE EXPECTED...

...RUSH PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO COMPLETION AND LEAVE THE AREA
NOW!...

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER....

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES

ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST
BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE...
LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON.

IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS
AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL AT A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED
160 MPH WINDS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILYS LIVES. FOLLOW LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS
RECOMMENDATIONS AND LEAVE HURRICANE WARNING AREA NOW BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WORSEN. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS FOR THE LANDFALL OF A
CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE.

MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD
FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE
EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND
LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE
FLOODING SHOULD LEAVE NOW! HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEE
PROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO 25 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION TODAY...THEN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY
MIDNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATED
CATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE
HOMES...AND CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS.
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED ON UPPER FLOORS OF
TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE.

...RAINFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 PM CDT.

$$

[HereSince1628]

12. Oh, I can't speak.

[Just Me]

13. Oh, God. This one's really bad!

Those poor people. :grouphug:

[TNDemo]

14. Where was this on the website?

I looked through the NOAA site and was trying to find this page.