This is why Wilson/Plame will come to nought:

[Tyler Durden]

I have given this much thought, and have discussed it in depth with a few fellow local progressives. Although the squirming of Scottie is amusing, and the Bushisms have flowed like wine, we have come to the following schema:

1. The public is too numb at the moment to give this much more credence.
2. There is no majority support anywhere for a truly in-depth investigation.
3. There will be no "smoking gun" that ties this to Bush, and we remember Iran/Contra.
4. IF there is enough oomph to this to make it last for a little while, there will be a "FALL GUY" who:
a. will take the rap personally
b. will be taken to the "Velvet Wing" at Leavenworth (next to the new golf course) for their "protection"
c. will have been paid MASSIVELY to take a 3 year sentence, making it well worth their while

The war, the economy, the flag, the military, the unemployment, the healthcare, the debt.........

The lil'l ol' 100 IQ average of the general poplulace will have tuned this out for the new fall shows by the 2nd week of October, with Bush still well on his way to another illegal term through voter stupidity and stolen elections via BBV.

Makes me glad my plans are still to be in Canada by Fall 2006; sorry guys. I see no honor in going down with the ship.

[Jim Sagle]

1. The CIA will make sure it excalates.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

3. Agreed. There's more where the Wilson stuff came from.

[Tyler Durden]

4. The CIA can't do it alone.

Of course the Agency will be a shadow of its former effectiveness after this, but the problem is that each agent that comes out is OUTED, and therefore now useless to the agency. Conpany sticks with the government, right or wrong.

Tenant will get axed and nobody is clean so any skeletons he has had better be small, because we're going to see them soon enough.

[proud patriot]

14. That why we are here ,,, Right ?

We have the power to keep this alive ..

This will take all patriots left and right .

[Tyler Durden]

18. Like I keep saying: I HOPE you're right.

I just don't think so.

Everything is born, lives, declines, and dies. Even countries. Maybe it's time.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

24. Look around...

...they've got plenty of support from factions in the military, the DOJ, and the mainstream press. They wouldn't have gone public without the certain knowledge that their tactic will be successful.

You underestimate the CIA by a long shot.

[West Coast Democrat]

2. Maybe, Maybe Not

A lot of factors have been hurting Bush's approval lately. This is one more thing that could drop him further, and help in to lose in 2004.

[Tyler Durden]

9. Up here in "Deer Huntin' Land" Bush is GOD.

You cannot believe all of the comments I've heard similar to "Damn whining Libbies, why don't they just shut up and let us run things...." and the like.

Nope. The local Progressives are going to ground if they know what's good for them. The Republic has already hit the slippery slope and even the sand thrown on the slide from things like Wilson/Plame and the Clark Candidacy aren't going to save it.

They're going to find a way to Globally Outsource EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US.

[West Coast Democrat]

20. Well, do you live in a toss-up state?

I live in a toss-up state, and from what I've experienced, I think this will only hurt the Bush Admin more.

[RandomKoolzip]

5. Frankly, I get the same feeling from watching the news and reading the

papers. In the newspapers, it's treated like a novelty scandal story, a minor diversion.

On the TV news, it's being called a political witch hunt. In another decade, this would have brought down the administartion like Wellstone's plane, but we are facing a LOT of apathy here in the US. The particulars of the story are too picayune and technical for the average dumbshit American, there's no easy sound bite, like "Clinton fucked an intern" that we can boil this story down to.

I am keeping my fingers crossed, though. Hope is the greatest placebo....

[ComerPerro]

6. Its sad, but I think you are right

There will be a fall guy.

But what we need to stress is whether Bush knew about it but didn't come foreward.

[grytpype]

7. Way too pessimistic. We're in Watergate territory now.

I think there is real outrage building over this, and the WH is going to stonewall and cover up. Nixon didn't go down without a hell of a struggle, either.

[proud patriot]

16. I agree

Today and yesterday the WH press briefing , every question
asked was about this .

[grytpype]

19. The press knows they're being stonewalled.

The WH either already knows or could easily find out ALL the facts underlying the Plame Affair. They claim to know little and they're saying less. Which means a coverup, and you have to ask yourself, who are they protecting?

[Brotherjohn]

17. The head of the RNC even admitted that if this happened, it's WORSE...

... than Watergate.

I don't have a link. I think it was on Hardball yesterday. Read the transcript in another post.

[displacedvermoter]

8. I gotta ask this

but why do you bother? I mean, if things are as truly hopeless as you and a number of other folks on DU paint them, why bother to spend as much time as you clearly do following events? I'm a 47 year old veteran who has been active in Dem politics since the McGovern days, and I thought I was pretty jaded, but, I guess I learn day in and day out here on DU that, in reality, I am pretty damned Pollyannish after all.

What the hell makes you think, BTW, that Canada will be a safe place in 2006. If the Bushistas are as all-powerful as you make them out to be, and Americans are now completely in these guys thrall, won't they just relive the War of 1812 and capture Canada as a huge territorial grab, with Mexico next on the list? You know, kinda like "living space" vis a vis the Nazis.

Scary when the folks on this site are already throwing in the towel, especially when they are sporting avatars for candidates who are now, seemingly, doing pretty well in the polls.

Again, why bother?

[MrBenchley]

11. I agree 100%

The truth will out. If these folks ain't got the guts for a fight, let them get out of the goddamn way and let those who do keep fighting.

[Tyler Durden]

13. Hey, Hope springs eternal.

I'm a 50 year old veteran, and a precinct worker for McGovern, Carter, etc. up to and including Gore. I WILL work for the Democratic Nominee, and I DO hope that it's Clark (who I think stands the best chance of stopping the slide.)

After watching Nixon, Ford, Reagan, the Bush's, Gingrich, Hastert, DeLay, Helms, Armey, Lott, ...........I just think I'm being realistic by being on the pessimistic side.

Hey, if Clark rolls in and saves the country, nobody will be happier than ME, but I'm still taking my knocked down green house, wind/diesel/solar generators, air tools, cheap lumber contract and going to Canada. My kids aren't going to have go through this for their entire lives. The littlest wants to be a doctor, the next one a large animal vet, the next an ecologist (after playing soccer), and the oldest a writer. They will do just fine.

[HereSince1628]

10. I mostly disagree

1. The public is too numb. Even under local anesthesia Americans understand the importance of a criminal allegation.

2. The polls on Monday and Tuesday showed a majority of respondents believed there should be an independent investigation. The MSNBC poll had 75% thinking that.

3. The criminal investigation doesn't have to go to Bush. If we can get rid of some of the criminals and maybe we slowdown the rest of the rouges by making them take time to better cover their tracks. The more we keep them off-task the better off we are.

4. There will be guys falling. How many is uncertain, seems like at least two, anyway. I expect that as the FBI determines there is sufficient evidence of criminal wrong-doing the republicans WILL step in to start hearings that will offer immunity shades of Iran-Contra.

BUT All that will take time.

If this can be dragged into the spring, which seems possible, then this will be pretty fresh on the electorates mind next year.

Moreover, the PNAC types were hoping for a winter offensive in Syria and the Lebanon.

[Brotherjohn]

12. Thank you. And those polls consistently have shown that people want...

...and independent investigation, and by LARGE majorities. The latest one I looked at (may've been same MSNBC one, about 75%) had nearly 100,000 people voting in it! Unscientific or not, that means a hell of a lot.

There are a number of issues that have brought Bush down to 50% from a high or near 90, and he has shown no signs of levelling off yet. And that was BEFORE this, which will probably do more damage to him than any one issue.

I don't this investigation will bring Bush down. There might not even be a fall guy. They might get off "scott free", as far as Aschcroft is concerned. But people see this for what it is, along with all the other issues. Their opinion will be registered in the voting booth (BBV or not).

Bush is out in 2004. Bank on it.

[Tyler Durden]

15. And Gore won the election...

...the majority thinks the tax cuts were bogus,
...nobody likes the debt.

HOWEVER:
...70% STILL link Iraq and bin Laden
...BBV WILL be out there in 2004; count on it

etcetera.

The Bush Action Figure is still selling like hotcakes.

[Brotherjohn]

23. "70% STILL link Iraq and bin Laden"

Not anymore. Now that Cheney went too far, and Bush was forced to discount that link plainly and publicly, that number is plummeting.
47% in the latest Newseek poll on the subject and 43% in the latest Gallup. (see http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm)

While it shows perhaps that people listen to him, it also shows that they've heard him, loudly and clearly, contradict himself about the reasons for war. Bush has put himself in a Catch 22 where he has to now accept and admit inarguable truths. Yet when he does so, he only reveals how untruthful he's been in the past.

The problem for Bush here is that now that he's been forced to be honest on this one issue, everyone is stepping back and saying "Wait a minute! You told us they were linked before! At least you implied it time and time again. THAT's why we backed you on Iraq!" Most people get their news in soundbites, and when they heard this soundbite, it directly contradicted the many they had gotten in the past (from Bush) that said "Iraq = 9-11".

It's another factor that's causing everyone but the staunchest Bush supporters to question Iraq and Bush in general. The bulk of the populace gave Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iraq. What they are now realizing is that they were mistaken in doing so.

EDIT: And BBV or not, if Bush is polling 30-40% just prior to the election, it'll be awfully hard to pull off such a scam without it being painfully obvious. And I don't think they'll be able to manipulate opinion polls to improve his numbers. There are too many independent organizations and they have all been fairly consistent with Bush's approval trends lately (which are dropping precipitously).

Plus, people are beginning to put BBV under the microscope.

[TNOE]

25. Hey Tyler

I would appreciate it very much if you can fill me in on some of the basics re/Canada. I didn't reach much about the earlier threads that existed as I thought I had no chance of the opportunity. However, interestingly enough - this is wild - I was engaged for 6 years - broke up soon after 9/11 due to my "views" on the matter and the fact that the guy totally disagreed with me and he thought I was going to get "us" in a lot of trouble by talking about it. Now after 1 1/2 years of being broke up he is seriously begging me back, buying me lots of jewelry and nice stuff and seems to be forever sorry. It took him a 1 1/2 but now he wants out and has been looking at property in Canada. Any basic information you can give me?? I might just go for it and get out of here. Thanks.

I also might post something in a bit to make you think there's more to this story than meets the eye.

[Tyler Durden]

27. check your PM.

.

[Brian Sweat]

21. I disagree.

1. The public is too numb at the moment to give this much more credence.

I think that the public understands that this leak has undermined out national security. Even if they do not, they will be made to understand before this is over.


2. There is no majority support anywhere for a truly in-depth investigation.

Everything that I have seen suggest that their is wide spread support. Even if there is not, there will be.


3. There will be no "smoking gun" that ties this to Bush, and we remember Iran/Contra.

While I agree with you here, I think you are expecting to much. If you think that this is going to cause Bush to resign or be impeached, then you are setting your sites a little to high. This is not what is going to happen. What is going to happen is that it is going to be revealed that someone high in the Bush administration leaked classified information that compromised national security in order to get political payback. At the very least this person will have to resign, but they could be prosecuted. Regardless, Bush will come out of this very dirty.

4. IF there is enough oomph to this to make it last for a little while, there will be a "FALL GUY" who:
a. will take the rap personally
b. will be taken to the "Velvet Wing" at Leavenworth (next to the new golf course) for their "protection"
c. will have been paid MASSIVELY to take a 3 year sentence, making it well worth their while

This is where you are wrong. The CIA knows who is responsible and they will not let this die until the proper person is punished.

[Tyler Durden]

22. From your mouth to God's Ear...

I have no desire to live in a country next door to a full blown Fascist state when I move the family to the Canadian Commune. And I'll still work my ass off until the day we leave, I just doubt the likelyhood of success.

[Tyler Durden]

26. Not to say "I told you so..." or anything, but:

http://democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=448620

The Democratic Party hacks are backing away from the story like a Political "Third Rail." They're going to let the CIA go it alone, and they can't do it by themselves.

[Brotherjohn]

28. Just because MSNBC is reportin that Dems are going to "lay off"...

Number 1: doesn't make it true.
Number 2: depends on how you define "lay off".

Some might say the smart thing to do, at this point, is let the investigation get under way. I realize it might not be, shall we say, the most thorough of investigations. But after some time, when it looks perhaps like Ashcroft isn't being particularly enthusiastic about his job, they can pick up the call again.

Besides, just because (some) D.C. Dems might back off a bit doesn't mean the media or the Dem candidates will. I haven't sen this much fire in the media since Bush began his term.

[Redneck Socialist]

29. I agree

This story is not going to have legs. A couple of low level pubs might loose their jobs and maybe even go to jail, but this is not going to touch bush. At worst he lets a couple of his boys hang out to dry and he comes off looking stong and decisive.

[Brotherjohn]

30. READ THIS (Fox News, of all places, and from 50min ago).

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,98829,00.html

While they are saying that it is "not likely" that they will appoint a special prosecutor, yesterday they were saying unequivocally that they would not.

A DoJ official says today that only two circumstances would merit such a move:
"a clear conflict of interest", "or if the affair were to become such a political issue that it would be "in the public interest".

He later states that "'it may be in the public interest' to appoint a special counsel and to 'do it quickly'".

Also note in the story that Schumer wrote a letter TODAY to Aschcroft asking for a special counsel. Doesn't sound like he's "laying off".

This is not going to die on the vine. While I agree it may not result in anyone going to jail, I think it is going to do Bush immense political damage.

[tjdee]

31. Conflict of interest= Rove worked for Ashcroft on one of his campaigns.

Wasn't there a thread on this yesterday, I wonder.

I think that's a pretty clear conflict of interest, myself.

[Brotherjohn]

32. I think that's pretty clear, too. Hell, according to the Repubs...

... during the Clinton years, it was automatically conflict of interest for the AG to ever investigate anything related to the WH because the president appointed the AG!

But blatant hypocrisy aside, that's the AG's call to make (just as it was with Reno). Ashcroft won't conclude it's a conflict of interest, and they can probably get away with saying that.

The "public interest" angle, however... if there is enough public outcry for a special prosecutor, they will have to either appoint one or suffer severe political damage. I think there is enough outcry, and it will only grow from here. I think, in fact, that the "official" quoted in this article was all but acknowledging that. Most polls show 70-80% want one. Admittedly, these are online polls and it is early in the game. But most of these polls have had tens of thousands of votes, and the Dems are NOT laying off in this respect.

Remember, the populace has come to EXPECT independent counsels in cases like this. Thanks to the Repubs, theyautomatically think that a president should not be investigated by his own AG.

Chickens coming home to roost...

[incapsulated]

33. This one's a little different...

than your average Bush crime that get's ignored for Benifer. It involves the CIA, the WH and the Press themselves. And they love to talk about anything that involves themselves, even when no one cares.

Bush is falling like lead in the polls, which gives them "permission" to be more "critical". I understand your cynicism completely. But wait and see, we could hit some paydirt this time around.

:kick:

[Redbear]

34. part of the problem is the definition of "nought"

Will it end in Dubya's resignation. No.

Will it push his approval numbers even lower? Yes.

Will anybody serve time? I doubt it.

Will somebody or multiple somebodies have to resign in disgrace? Probably.

The best thing I think this accomplishes is that it gives people a real reason to oppose Bush even if they aren't Democrats. They know Bush lied about WMD, but they hate to use that as a reason because of the troops. there is no way anyone can support Bush on this.

I know a lot of people who may not agree with us on the issues who will say "What Bush did to that CIA woman, that was just flat wrong"

[Brotherjohn]

35. My dad has been staunchly pro-Bush.

I don't talk to him too much about these things, to avoid conflict.

But before Iraq, he said something like "I think we need to keep supporting him... as long as nothing else bad happens."

I think, lot a lot of other people who are on the fence are seeing a lot of "bad" things happening, and this is one of the worst. I think they are jumping over the fence in droves, as polls indicate.

My dad was mostly anti-Clinton,I think for moral reasons. He and others now realize that Bush doesn't hold any more moral high ground than Clinton (and perhaps far less).

[West Coast Democrat]

36. Tyler, It Is Already Hurting

http://www.pollingreport.com/bush.htm

ABC News/Wash Post Poll

(Among the findings):

82% Call it Serious or Somewhat Serious

69% Believe a Special Counsel should investigatw