Hold on a minute. Ordering evacuation of a major city is a DAMN HARD

[karlrschneider]

decision. Even at THIS moment, there is far from 100% certainty this hurricane is going to directly hit New Orleans. I personally think it will deal them a devasting blow but just a day ago the best predictions had no guarantee of being precise. The massive disruption of half a million lives when they're basically ordered to leave their homes is something -anyone- wouldn't want to do without virtual certainty that it's the right thing to do. It's a crap-shoot with big stakes and I sure as hell don't envy anyone who has to consider and/or make the call.

[geomon666]

1. Far? More likely about 80-90% chance

That number rises every hour the storm continues on it's Northwest direction. If hasn't gone north by the 10pm advisory, NO is in deep trouble.

[FloridaPat]

13. Last year Charlie changed course at the last minute and instead of

hitting Ft. Meyers, hit Punta Gorda. No one in his path was ready for him because they were sure it was going to hit Tampa hard.

The trick is to be on the left side of the hurricane. Either way, NOLA is in for a long day.

[geomon666]

15. This isn't Charlie and the conditions are totally different.

This thing is getting squeezed by two high pressure systems that are pushing it in the direction it's going. There won't be any major deviation, only slight wobbles.

[kstewart33]

2. True, but keep in mind

According to the National Weather Service, Katrina has been exactly on the predicted track for the last 24 hours. It looks like the time for a major shift is no more.

[Maple]

3. Agreed

It's a judgement call based on the latest information.

And if a complete evacuation had been ordered, and then Katrina veered away, they do what? Say oops?

This is a major event, and you can't just do it on chance.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

But it's no time to be second-guessing those on the scene, with the responsibility. I have no doubt they are doing their very best.

[XOKCowboy]

4. Remember that 3 days ago Katrina was barely Level 1

after hitting Florida. This is still not an exact science. You don't order evacuations of hundreds of thousands of people on a hunch. What if it had just petered out in the Gulf and you'd caused mass hysteria and billions of dollars of unnecessary costs and been wrong about it hitting?

[karlrschneider]

18. Um, I think that was precisely my point...maybe I didn't put it very well.

:eyes:

[stray cat]

5. New Orleans is doing the best they can.

They have made plans like the contraflow. However, it is one hell of a job and no guarantee as to where Katrina was actually going to hit and whether it would weaken or stregthen. If it would have turned they would have been accused of crying wolf and over-reacting and wasting tax dollars.

[malaise]

11. She has weakened a bit

like dropping from 175 to 167 is weakening. Is anyone watching the confusion at the Superdome on CNN. 2,000 waiting outside. I just saw some army peeps with this woman with a baby and they walked right past everyone and headed in.

[jaysunb]

6. I'm sure there are some people

in NOLA that'd love to trade places with you....

[fishnfla]

7. The track has not changed in 3 days

I hear what you are saying, but the computer models and the forecasts have improved greatly.

[TahitiNut]

8. I'm old enough to remember when there were no satellite photos.

Those were the days (Camille and before) of real crap shoots! I think most folks lose sight of how far we've come in weather forecasting and monitoring.

[benburch]

9. I remember the first NIMBUS photos.

They changed weather forecasting forever.

[TahitiNut]

17. Yep. Jaw-droppers. I remember, too. The first one was in 1964.

So much of weather forecasting was based on cartoonish models, even seasoned meteorologists were stunned by the first comprehensive temperature and water vapor readings in the atmosphere.

[benburch]

10. They ordered it far too late.

Tens of thousands will probably die as a direct result.

[Junkdrawer]

14. Yep. If your plan is evacuation, then you have to evacuate 72 hrs out...

and that means lots of false alarms.

I'm afraid many are going to die in their cars now.. :cry:

[speedoo]

12. Nonsense.

The high likelihood of a hit on New Orleans, and the increase in power of this storm, were both predicted days ago. The mandatory evacuation order came at least 24 hours too late. Screw the disruption... lives are at stake.

Even now, they are apparantly not ready to allow people into the Superdome, which tells me the authorities were not ready for this.

[karlrschneider]

20. "Days ago"???? Here's the NHC bulletin from barely 48 hours ago

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public_a.010.shtml?

It was 600 miles from N.O. and a Cat 1. Jesus.

[speedoo]

21. Right, but over the next 24 hours it developed into a "major hurricane".

And started moving toward the Northern Gulf Coast. Hurricane warning for the NO area was posted around mid day Saturday. I heard weather people talking about a likely hit on NO early Saturday and that's when a mandatory evacuation should have been given serious consideration and then ordered later in the day.

Even as early as Thursday, weather people were saying it would move across South Florida and then strengthen in a major way when it got into the warm waters of the Gulf and then turn to the NW - North direction. EG straight for NO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.016.shtml?

[Cocoa]

16. there's also a "crying wolf" effect

I agree it's a damn hard decision, and any criticism should be based on something factual, not just meted out willy-nilly.

[Crazy Guggenheim]

19. With a hurricane of this size pne SHOULD leave that area of the

country.