Hurricane Katrina and others: Global Warming or Normal weather variations?

[HamdenRice]

The unprecedented, city-destroying disaster that is predicted for NO has me wondering whether this is a normal statistical variation in the weather or is this a symptom of global warming?

The theory of climatologists who concern themselves with global warming is that, in the long run, warmer waters would lead to more intense and more frequent hurricanes, because hurricanes get their tremendous energy from warm tropical waters, which cause moist air to rise and, like water running down a drain, to swirl. The warmer the waters, the more energy in the waters, and hence the stronger and more frequent the hurricanes.

So if you want to think about the long term political-environmental issues raised by Katrina, do you think this is related to global warming or is it just a fluke of weather?

Should boy george get on board with Kyoto or continue to take Cheney's advice that conservation of fossil fuels is just a "sign of personal virtue" but not an important part of public policy?

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. WE know it may be related to Global Warming....idiotson will...

try to blame it on bin Laden or Zarquawi....or, perhaps Saddam.....or....Clinton.

[Selatius]

2. This is not necessarily due to global warming

The Atlantic goes through 20 or 30 year phases where it's active and another 20 or 30 years where it is relatively inactive. In the 1990s, we just happened to have re-entered an active phase.

[bemildred]

3. When was the last time there was a 'K', in August?

That said, it's not likely we can change it now, it took hundreds of years to get here, it will take hundreds of years to do much about it, and the probability approaches zero that we can restore anything like the status quo ante.

[The Magistrate]

4. My Own Sense Of It, Mr. Rice

Is that the thing is related to the warming of the globe obviously underway today. The first result of this should not be greatly icreased temperatures, but much more energetic storms, as you pointed out.

[Lorien]

5. I have a good friend who works in the Antarctic studying climate change

he's been doing this for 45 years, and every prediction he has made has come true AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. Absolutely no doubt in his mind or mine that current weather extremes are due to global warming.

[Lindacooks]

13. Your friend is a very reliable source, and I believe him.

If only the idiots surrounding the chimp could get this through their heads. But, now that I think about it, why would they care? You know what the chimp said about history 'We won't know. We'll all be dead'.

[stillcool]

6. some other things to consider...

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,837058,00. and.....
Exclusive from New Scientist Print Edition

The Earth's magnetic poles might be starting to flip say researchers who have seen strange anomalies in our planet's magnetic field.

The magnetic field is created by the flow of molten iron inside the Earth's core. These circulation patterns are affected by the planet's rotation, so the field normally aligns with the Earth's axis - forming the north and south poles.

But the way minerals are aligned in ancient rock shows that the planet's magnetic dipole occasionally disappears altogether, leaving a much more complicated field with many poles all over the planet. When the dipole comes back into force, the north and south poles can swap places.

The last reversal happened about 780,000 years ago, over a period of several thousand years. Now Gauthier Hulot from the Institute of Earth Sciences in Paris and his colleagues think they have spotted early signs of another reversal

[applegrove]

7. Well - they have been getting hurricanes in the southern hemisphere of

late - which used to be rare (something to do with the way the earth spins). So that is new too.

Nova Scotia got its first bad hurricane in 50 years. Why? The water temperature was much higher than normal. That is all the hurricanes need is warm water. Warmer water makes for longer seasons, stronger hurricanes (why they always loose power over land & gain it over warm water) and a greater area where hurricanes can keep their strength.

[rbjensen]

8. Too early

and not enough data to know, I would think.

[Kazak]

9. I suspect in may...

along with the earthquake that triggered last years devistating tsunami.

[Walt Starr]

10. Well, since hurricanes are a natural cooling event

I'd say the rise in numbers and intensity is a direct result of higher water temperatures in the Atlantic which is directly related to global climate change.

Nature has a way to handle everything, and these storms are nature's way of cooling large bodiesof water.

When was the last time we had a "K" storm in august?

Last year, Karl lasted from September 16-28.

2003 Kate 25 SEP - 10 OCT

2002 Kyle 20 SEP - 12 OCT

2001 Karen 11-15 Oct

2000 Keith 28 SEP - 6 OCT

1999 Tropical Storm Katrina 28 OCT - 1 Nov

1998 Karl 23 - 29 SEP

1996 Tropical Storm Kyle 11-12 OCT

1995 Tropical Storm Karen 26 AUG - 3 SEP

So we go ack a decade to find another "K" Storm in August, and it was a tropical storm that never made landfall.

The next one back was in 1990, Hurricane Klaus 3-9 Oct

1989 Tropical Storm KAren 28 NOV - 4 DEC

1988 TS Keith 17-26 NOV

1985 Kate 15-23 NOV

1984 Klaus 5-13 NOV

1981 Katrina 3-7 NOV

1980 Karl 25-28 NOV

1978 Kendra 28 OCT - 3 NOV

1971 TS Kristy 18-21 OCT

1969 Kara 7-19 OCT, however, there were three unnamed storms (Hurricane #10, Tropical Storm #11 and Subtropical Storm #1) prior to Kara, so if we went strictly naming those, Tropical Storm #10 would have been Kara and its dates were 24-30 SEP.

1964 There were three unnamed tropical storms this year. Strictly naimg would have made Hurricane Isbell the "K" storm and its dates were 8-17 OCT.

1959 - One unnamed Huricane, thus Judith was 17-21 OCT

1955 - No "A" storm, two unnamed tropical storms. Tropical Storm #11 10-14 OCT and Hurricane Katie 14-20 OCT.

That's all the "K storms for the past 50 years.

Source: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

[bemildred]

11. Thank you, I would not know how to do that.

:thumbsup:

[Kagemusha]

12. Most people will answer based on politics but...

The cold scientific truth is that we haven't been studying weather effectively for long enough to really be able to tell the difference. Clearly the area known as New Orleans today has been hit by storms like this at some point in the past. Like major earthquakes, it's nowhere near as rare as a big meteor hitting. And ultimately, it doesn't REALLY matter. It matters a lot more that New Orleans had plenty of scares and obviously doesn't have a good enough management plan for the big one. Now that the big one seems to be less than 24 hours away, they're screwed, little more can be done, and the disaster long predicted is about to happen, in full. Global warming or not, global cooling or not, fluke or not, and frankly, "normal" weather or not (I think that is an oxymoron, just because stuff like this is rare doesn't mean it didn't happen long before but the Mayans didn't have CNN or The Weather Channel), this is gonna be bad, just a matter of HOW bad. And that's the blunt, scientific truth.

The rest is just a blame game I have no interest in.

[AuntPatsy]

14. Have to agree with you there.

[wli]

15. global warming n/t

[Junkdrawer]

16. Sea surface temperatures are all way above normal...

If you build it, they will come...

[HamdenRice]

17. I would be skeptical if it weren't for polar anomalies

I ordinarily would not link a cyclical phenomenon like hurricanes with global warming, but the news about the north pole melting and several glaciers poised to collapse, I fear that the effects of global warming are occurring much faster and more severely than predicted.

We really need a Marshall Plan for climate, but the current administration has only contempt for environmental science.

[KittyWampus]

18. It's Both, They're Not Mutually Exclusive. However, Human Activity Has

seriously undermined Nature's capacity for readjustment.

Cutting down so many trees worldwide... it's like smoking 5 packs a day will make recovering from the flu more difficult.