Hurricane Watchers check in

[Horse with no Name]

:hi:

[KitchenWitch]

1. I am in

:hi:

Watching from very afar...and heart is breaking.

[shadowknows69]

3. probably the best coverage we'll get

<http://www.wdsu.com/video/4907831/detail.html>

[BayouBengal07]

4. Watching from BR...

I really don't want to watch my city wash into the sea...at least this Barcardi and Hawaiian punch is taking the edge off.

[steve2470]

6. I feel for you. It must be horrible watching and waiting nt

[KitchenWitch]

13. I am in Minnesota

and I am feel so helpless, I wish I could do something for all of you waiting...:cry:

[Chichiri]

25. Another helpless-feeling Minnesotan here

:(

[Ladyhawk]

58. I am so sorry. :(

All I can do is hope that it won't be as bad as predicted. Big hugs to you and everyone in Katrina's path.

[Kenroy]

108. I know just how you feel...

it's totally heart-breaking. I adore New Orleans, and the thought of what's about to happen is horrifying.

[steve2470]

2. Yo

hurricane geek with keyboard and brain at the ready, god bless nola and la and ms.

[Elidor]

18. Which feed are you watching, steve?

[steve2470]

22. wdsu

www.wdsu.com

doing very well with it....and drinking my Diet Pepsi to keep my boyish figure :-)

[Prism]

44. Coffee with splenda, but the thought's the same =)

n/t

[bonito]

5. Here.

[Pithy Cherub]

7. Present with kleenex and gummi bears...

:hi:

[Horse with no Name]

16. I have Oreo's, Rolaids and Diet Dr. Pepper

I'll share?Anyone?:)

[Lori Price CLG]

21. Coffee and gum. n/t

[Maru Kitteh]

27. I'll take some of those Rolaids please

I think the acid in my stomach is eating it's way down into my shoes.

[xmas74]

53. Pass the Rolaids.

I'll need them.

[QC]

8. I'm here--following the discussion board at...

http://flhurricane.com. Excellent discussions there, lots of weather geeks debating pressure and shear like Talmudic scholars.

[steve2470]

12. great link thanks nt

[jeffreyi]

34. Thanks for that forum link

Someone is saying that FEMA is making some scary projections about the extent of flooding and even fatalities from this one. I will not repeat because I don't know about the authenticity.

[QC]

48. There's talk of it on that forum, too.

I don't see any way there won't be thousands or tens of thousands dead. Believe me, I don't even like to say that, but I can't see any other possibility.

[hang a left]

9. hey.....

checking in. Streaming WDSU right now.

[ixion]

10. *wave*

here...I'm out of state (FL) right now, but watching this one.

It is as fascinating as it is tragic. :-(

[merh]

11. here

:hi:

[Horse with no Name]

15. Hugsssss

Are you okay?
Been worried about you all day.:hug:

[merh]

19. I'm safe - storm has yet to really hit here. I'm inland with my family

and I will try to stay online as long as the electricity and internet hold up.

Don't worry about me sweet friend, there are others in far worse shape. I'll be okay, this is just a part of life. :hug:

:loveya:

[Corgigal]

14. Hubby and I are checking in from SC

Scary to watch and I hope it's not as bad as projected.

[Sgent]

17. I'm in N MS

and my entire family is camped out evacuees.

Monitoring on WDSU and NOAA. My dad is an experienced pilot and sailor and is calling shots as well -- also knows the water systems.

Also moving all my stuff to higher ground, wouldn't be surprised if I get 1-2 inches of water in my living room from flooding.

[Pithy Cherub]

32. Wish you safety and peace!

Hope you don't hve any damage to your belongings. Have family near Tupelo.

[celestia671]

20. I'm in Central La.

About 90 miles north of Baton Rouge. We've got alot of evacuees here and in Natchez. I'm praying for the folks in NO, and hoping we don't get it too bad here ourselves.

[geomon666]

23. Watching from Miami, FL n/t

[tedoll78]

24. Present with tons of caffeine and tears.

.

[steve2470]

26. horrible isn't it ? nt

[TexasLady]

28. Ill probably be up tonight as well

I have always had an interest in bad weather, so Im staying up for this one.

[lpbk2713]

29. I'm bouncing between several sites.

Plus I have the TV on CNN.

[Catchawave]

30. I'm here !

:hi:

Hard to sleep knowing how terrified those people in NO must be right now. Somehow I feel like I'm helping by sending positive vibes their way :loveya:

[newswolf56]

31. Old newsman watching from afar.

Will be away from this machine for a couple of hours while I run a midnight grocery-errand, but then will be back. (I'm concerned about the staple-food shortages that will surely result from the transportation collapse if this storm shuts down the Gulf of Mexico refineries, and am laying in rice, beans and coffee accordingly.)

If this storm plays out as predicted, I frankly believe it will not only be the end of New Orleans but the death of the American economy as well, with no recovery possible -- not the least because Bush and the oligarchy he represents wants to reduce all the rest of us to defacto slavery: Wal-Mart wages for those lucky enough to have jobs, homelessness and starvation for all the rest of us.

[faithnotgreed]

39. that is some prediction newswolf

please take good care

we can only wait to see what havoc is wrought by this force (i mean the storm not bush though i know i need not comment on that just now)

[newswolf56]

67. This is essentially what was predicted in that well-researched...

cable TV movie last June about the potential oil crisis. (Sorry I don't remember it's name; nothing I Googled would bring it up.) In any case, now life appears to be imitating art, with the Katrina disaster unfolding much as the script-writer(s) predicted. In my area (Puget Sound), there's already some price-gouging at the pumps as panic buying sends increasing numbers of motorists to fill up.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

74. hey newswolf...

don't be posting those dire predictions when your post count is 666. Eeeek!

[newswolf56]

85. Oh, wow -- I hadn't noticed. That literally leaves me speechless.

But take heart: I'm not a Christian -- nor a worshiper of Yehveh either. So I don't believe the Bible is literally true, and I regard the post number as just an eerie coincidence. (I hope.)

What I hope even more is that I'm wrong: that Katrina breaks up and does minimal damage.


Edit: last sentence added.

[bee]

98. "oil storm"

I cant find the thread.. but another DUer mentioned this earlier. Movie starts with a hurricane hitting New Orleans and wiping our Port Fourchon.. which incidentally, is just to the west of the projected eye of Katrina.

Heres the link...
http://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/originals/oilstorm/main.html
Feeling more like a prediction. creepy.

[newswolf56]

112. Finally found the name of that film:

Oil Storm -- took me a long time to find a Google reference (using "oil" as the key word). Seems almost as if the powers that be were trying to ease it down the Orwellian memory hole.

[NVMojo]

105. I had not realized the connection to national economies ...frightening....

[phusion]

33. Yep..not getting much sleep tonight...

Watching from Albuquerque.

:scared:

[Usrename]

35. On watch - don't like what I'm seeing

[spuddonna]

36. Checking in and a reminder to all: Please donate to the Red Cross...

Here's a direct link via secure server:

https://www.redcross.org/donate/donation-form.asp

I know you guys probably already have, but just a reminder to those who may be reading...

[steve2470]

37. winds in southern plaquemines parrish up to 75 mph per wdsu nt

[aaronbees]

38. Stayin' up!

I feel I have to with a sister in NO (she's out of there and safe but I feel a need to keep an eye on her home, so to speak).

Reports on nola.com indicate a tornado was discussed on the scanner, per info from Times-Picayune staff.

[steve2470]

40. pressure still 904 millibars which is bad but better than 902 nt

[intheflow]

41. Me too. Though I'm off to bed soon so I can work the Denver Red Cross

call center in the morning if they need me. I put the call in. Just waiting now.

[steve2470]

42. grand isle gets hurricane force winds at 1 am....eye gets there at 8 am nt

[steve2470]

43. "this will be more powerful than andrew" per Max Mayfield of NHC nt

[steve2470]

45. "new orleans may never be the same" - another mayfield quote nt

[Maru Kitteh]

47. That made me cry

Oh how I wish I could do more than give up our spare coin and hurt.


:cry:

[steve2470]

49. aw I"m sorry, I probably shouldn't post that stuff nt

[Maru Kitteh]

60. Oh no Steve, don't be sorry - I was watching the live feed on WWLTV

when the anchor read it. He cried. It made me cry. Sometimes I guess that's all we can do is allow ourselves to feel.

[steve2470]

63. ok thanks I was feeling guilty nt

[spuddonna]

52. Yeah, I got choked up by that too...

He looked like he was going to break down... Hey, these people are watching this happen to their hometown...

I know how I feel and I'm safe thousands of miles away... God bless them...

[Prism]

46. Present

With coffee and a popsicle. :hi:

Which really isn't as jarring as it sounds.

I'll just wash it down with five tubes of sensodyne. . .

[Horse with no Name]

50. Don't forget to give blood folks--TODAY

It WILL be needed.
It doesn't matter where you live--you can help.
Blood will get to where it is needed.
There is always a shortage in the summer months...and now even more so.
Please?

[xmas74]

51. I'll watch online until 0700.

I'll tune in again once I get my daughter off to school at 0820.

[steve2470]

54. I feel bad for the folks in the Superdome. I hope they can have a little

fun. nt

[Cats Against Frist]

55. I've been watching all day -- I have no cable

and the live feeds keep dropping out, and shifting, but I'm holding on, best I can. I feel so terrible for those people, and sad for the city. I wanted to visit NO, my whole life. I almost moved there in 2000, on a whim. I have friends who've lived there that say it's a fascinating, weird, mystical and creepy place. I feel like a very important part of our cultural heritage may be destroyed.

:( :hi:

[Horse with no Name]

69. I love the history of vampires and ghosts

and the voodoo of New Orleans.
I find it fascinating.
I'd hate to see that gone.

[WillyT]

56. Yo !!!

:bounce::hi::bounce:

[steve2470]

57. 25 feet of standing water possible in New Orleans.....sure hope not nt

[steve2470]

59. Do ya'all want me to hush up about bad news ?

I don't want to torture you, honestly.

[Prism]

71. No, I appreciate it.

I'm tapping around the internet just as fast as my fingers will bludgeon the keys, but I can't catch everything, so it's good to have some back up =)

[Maru Kitteh]

76. No, that's what everyone is up for really -it's just reality on the ground

also heard that they are predicting 60% to 80% destruction of the city and 6 months of flooding. It's a very sad and scary thing but it's happening.

[Kool Kitty]

92. No, keep posting the news.

Yes, it is horrible. But it is news. People have to hear the good and the bad. This is unfortunately some of the worst I have ever heard. I am watching this on every news channel here in central NJ. (Okay, I'm not watching FOX, but I don't consider that news, anyway.)

Maybe a bit OT, but if the reporters really reported all the news, good and bad, maybe the rest of the country wouldn't have been fooled by this useless administration.

[CottonBear]

61. Watching from Athens, GA. Relatives in Lacombe, LA.

Last I heard (late this afternoon) they were staying put. There is now a mandatory evacuation for St. Tammany Parrish for everyone living below I-12. I hope they've left. Flo is sure her house is going to flood. She's staying with her cousin whose house is a bit higher up. Mr. CottonBear's other cousins live in Slidell and Metarie.

May God have mercy on NOLA and the Gulf Coast.

[tedoll78]

62. Is it me..

or is this thing refusing to stay on a due north course? It keeps on jotting west, tiny bit by tiny bit.. it's so damn frustrating..

[darkstar]

64. I'm up for a bit

In Lafayette, about 55 miles due east of Baton Rouge for those of from around here.

Thanks HWNN and steve2470 for your posts and updates to this board. I liked the way y'all stood your ground when all the carpers were..uh...carping.

Thanks. :hi:

[Catchawave]

65. 8 a.m. landfall predicted

I'm assuming that's NO time?

[steve2470]

66. yes nt

[Catchawave]

80. MSNBC just put up 8 a.m. ET

Faux is predicting Sunrise.

I'm just a flippy tv-clicky thing fool tonight :)

Also noticed no one has reporters in the field tonight? Maybe I'm just missing them.

[steve2470]

68. anchor said they will need lots of mental health professionals, AMEN nt

[bee]

70. posted in a new thread before I saw this one...

western MS not far from New Orleans is now issuing tornado watches.
Even "worst case" didnt account for that..
watching on wlox.com

:scared:

[merh]

72. We always anticipate tornados with Hurricanes.

I watched tornados take out trees in my father's yard during hurricane elena (it was a day time storm).

Biloxi/Gulfport will be hit by the right quadrant, that part of the storm is notorious for spawning tornados.

Winds are picking up here! :hi:

[bee]

90. wow... thanks for letting me know...

I had no idea. Not much experience with Hurricanes up here in New England... but it makes total sense. Guess I never realized..

its horrible.

:hi: You are obviously close to the storm... please stay safe!

[merh]

94. Welcome to DU.

:hi: That's the thing about hurricanes, they always have so many events that accompany them. I'll be safe, thanks for the good wishes. :hi:

[bee]

104. Thank you for the welcome!

Glad to know that you are safe. Its hard to imagine how terrible it must be for those who are in harms way. 2 AM here in NH ane even from this huge distance I cant sleep. My heart goes out to everyone down there. :grouphug:

[merh]

106. Just keep us in your prayers

:-)

[Nikki Stone 1]

81. A friend of mine evacuated from NO to Sun.

I don't have cable and can't get streaming video for some reason. I am reading your updates to get some info.

Thanks.

[steve2470]

73. lots of gouging reports to la consumer office nt

[steve2470]

75. 80 mph gust in grand isle, electricity out...not sure of extent nt

[Renew Deal]

87. Did you see the video of the guy that wasn't leaving.

He was on grand Isle. They were going to arrest him if he didn't leave. He said "when it's your time, it's your time." I hope he makes it.

[Horse with no Name]

77. Well folks

I need to decompress.
This is too horrible to fathom. I am going to log off for awhile.
Keep the updates coming--will be in to read them in a bit.
I have a distinct need to do some very heavy praying tonight.
:grouphug:

[steve2470]

79. ok take care of yourself

:hug:

[darkstar]

82. OK friend

Thanks again...

Peace

[LeahD]

78. I'm heartsick. Prayers for all of those in the path of Katrina. n/t

[Renew Deal]

83. Yo

I'm a junkie for this stuff.

[maddezmom]

84. checking in from the UK, watching the WDSU link

My sil just had a baby a few weeks ago, so my husbands mom and dad were there helping out. So now all 7 of them and 2 dogs are hold up
in Hattiesburg MS after traveling from Harvey LA.

[nonconformist]

86. Here

This is unbelievable.

[Fleshdancer]

88. Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 25a

http://weather.latimes.com/tropical/at200512.public.html

At midnight CDT...0500z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located near latitude 27.9 north...longitude 89.5 west or about 90 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 150 miles south-southeast of New Orleans Louisiana.

Katrina is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph...and a turn to the north is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track the center of the hurricane will be very near the northern Gulf Coast Monday morning. However...conditions are already deteriorating along portions of the central and northeastern Gulf Coast...and will continue to worsen through the night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph with higher gusts. Katrina is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely prior to landfall...and Katrina is expected to make landfall at either category four or five intensity. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level.

Katrina remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles. A wind gust to 98 mph was recently reported from Southwest Pass Louisiana.

[Lex]

89. Still up and watching from NC.

So afraid for everyone and everything in and around New Orleans.

We've had a few of these (not THIS big) to deal with in NC.

[Catchawave]

99. I'm near the VA coast and very empatheic

for the folks in the storm's path. Also have my eye on:

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN :scared:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/051754.shtml?5day

[Lex]

111. Saw TD 13 tonight too!

Keeping my eye on it as well.

[nclib]

102. I'm in NC too.

Durham. Still watching.

We went through Fran and I can't even imagine what those people must be feeling.

[Lex]

109. Hey NCLib--I'm in Durham too!

Fran--arrggggh.

[nclib]

117. Hi Lex

Fran was pretty awful. Lots of damage and no power for 10 days.

Since you're local, you should join us for one of our monthly DU meetings.

[steve2470]

91. 98 mph gust reported on coast, Southwest Pass Louisiana. by nhc nt

[steve2470]

93. pensacola beach had hurricane warning I think,escambia bridge closed nt

[steve2470]

95. storm surge up to 28 feet on the gulf coast of la nt

[darkstar]

96. 90 mph gusts reported in N.O.

1:00 am C as per WWL stream

[steve2470]

97. Lafitte LA being hammered with rain nt

[buddysmellgood]

100. Check out the 2003 Civil Engineering assessment of this very situation.

http://www.pubs.asce.org/ceonline/ceonline03/0603feat.html

In the 1980s Joseph Suhayda, then a coastal oceanographer in the civil engineering department at Louisiana State University (LSU), began to seek an answer to this question by simulating storms with a modified version of a hurricane model used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Suhayda first began modeling the storms to help parishes in southeastern Louisiana determine appropriate flood elevations for FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program. As his modeling capabilities improved, he began to more closely investigate the level of protection provided by the levees encircling New Orleans.

Suhayda’s model contains a geographic information system overlay that divides a fairly large boundary, from Alabama to Texas, into 0.6 mi (1 km) grids containing information about ground elevations, land masses, and waterways. The FEMA hurricane model does not draw on the same processing power as AdCirc and in general produces more liberal projections of flooding from storm surges. But by solving numerical equations representing a storm’s pressure, wind forces, and forward velocity, Suhayda was able to use the model to predict the storm surge associated with an actual hurricane dozens of hours before it hit land. By subtracting the elevations on a topographical map of coastal Louisiana from those surge values, he was able to approximate the flood risk of a given storm.

In the 1990s, Suhayda began modeling category 4 and 5 storms hitting New Orleans from a variety of directions. His results were frightening enough that he shared them with emergency preparedness officials throughout Louisiana. If such a severe storm were to hit the city from the southwest, for instance, Suhayda’s data indicate that the water level of Lake Pontchartrain would rise by as much as 12 ft (3.7 m). As the storm’s counterclockwise winds battered the levees on the northern shore of the city, the water would easily top the embankments and fill the streets to a depth of 25 ft (7.6 m) or more.

Suhayda’s model is not the only one that describes such a catastrophe. A model called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), which is used by the National Weather Service and local agencies concerned with emergency preparedness, portrays an equally grim outcome should a storm of category 5 hit New Orleans. The SLOSH model does not contain nearly as many computational nodes as does AdCirc, it does not use a finite-element grid to increase the resolution of the nodes on shore, and its boundary is much smaller. Even so, its results are disheartening.

“Suppose it’s wrong,” says Combe, the Corps modeler. “Suppose twenty-five feet is only fifteen feet. Fifteen feet still floods the whole city up to the height of the levees.”

Experts say a flood of this magnitude would probably shut down the city’s power plants and water and sewage treatment plants and might even take out its drainage system. The workhorse pumps would be clogged with debris, and the levees would suddenly be working to keep water in the city. Survivors of the storm—humans and animals alike—would be sharing space on the crests of levees until the Corps could dynamite holes in the structures to drain the area. In such a scenario, the American Red Cross estimates that between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

101. Present!

[aaronbees]

103. Weather cams...

at www.nola.com are still working - watching beadcam and quarter cam now - they show the weather is getting rough already in NOLA. I'm amazed they're still running. :scared:

May the angels watch over those wonderful people in N'Awlins. :grouphug:

[Lone_Star_Dem]

107. Present

I'm crossing all my fingers and toes in hope that this isn't the disaster they keep predicting.

Go east, go east Katrina!

[gulfcoastliberal]

110. Here in Pensacola (190 miles E of N.O.)

They're predicting 60-90mph winds and gusts up to 100.

This is worse than Camille per my grandmother who weathered that one out near bay st louis mississippi.

[steve2470]

113. New Orleans in grave peril - headline in Miami Herald

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/12502042.htm

[Kool Kitty]

114. Just saw on the crawl on CNN

that there is a nuclear power plant just outside NO that has been shut down as a precaution. The plant is approximately 20 miles west of NO.

[steve2470]

115. 908 mb but wind speed the same nt

[steve2470]

116. state of emergency declared in alabama nt

[steve2470]

118. LA senators asking shrub to show up asap in new orleans nt

[steve2470]

119. 5 hours until eye reaches la shore nt