Wind shear seems to be weaking it significantly...thank goodness!!

[jab105]

I know it is facinating watching a natural disaster in action...but everyone must hope for the best (that it is not as bad as predicted)...

I was pretty freaked this afternoon...

But look at the most recent models, the wind shear is having a MAJOR effect, the west side of the hurricane is significantly weakened...this might even get down to a Cat 3 by landfall, which would be huge (in a good way)...

N/O will flood, but it doesn't look like it will be quite the disaster that some are predicting...look at the most recent image 06:15...



Here is the loop:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20HURRICANE&lat=26&lon=-88.1&zoom=4&width=640&height=480&type=Animation&numframes=20&palette=spect.pal

3 more hours of weakening...let's all hope...and this will not be as bad as predicted...

[underthedome]

1. Winds now at 150 - 155 mp nm

nm

[jab105]

7. Yea, just got the most recent update...but the west side is where NO

will most likely be...thats the part that needs to be weak...and it seems to be happening (I know it will be bad, but it doesn't seem quite as bad as it was any time this afternoon - those winds would be apocalyptic! - ...these things can weaken fast if you get a good amount of shear in there)...hoping that it is happening...

[CountAllVotes]

2. maybe god

has heard my prayers. New Orleans does not deserve this nor do any of its people.

Thank god for this hope. I ask god to help New Orleans and everyone there and nearby.

:kick:

[Libby2]

3. Yep, now a CAT 4

[Nevilledog]

6. Weather channel just said still a Cat 5.. 12:05 pst. n/t

[Maple]

9. A 'maximum power' Cat 4

Which is only a minor variation from a 5

[spuddonna]

4. I sure hope so...

and that it goes fast...

[FreedomAngel82]

5. I hope so too

I'm sure everybody is praying tonight who believes in prayer. Hopefully God can help.

[arcos]

8. They just said exactly the opposite in CNN...

There's nearly no wind shear, it will probably fluctuate a little in intensity, and it is very possible it will make landfall as cat 5...

[jab105]

11. It doesn't seem like that to me...

look at the color of the clouds...white is the worst...there are hardly any white clouds in the west of the storm...

And yes, I know that part of it is that I'm trying through "shear force" of will to make this thing go away...I remember Andrew, I was 30 miles from where it hit, my house hardly got touched, my friends sat screaming in their closet while the rest of their house blew away...
Anyways...
Check out the loop...

[arcos]

17. well, I'm no meteorologist...

but the NHC advisory clearly says it may fluctuate and go back to category 5:

"Some fluctuations in strength are likely
prior to landfall...but Katrina is expected to make landfall as
either a category four or possibly a category five hurricane.
Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be
significantly stronger than those near ground level."

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/at200512.public.html

[Bluebear]

10. CNN said exactly the opposite

I like your scenario but CNN and the Hurricane Center said there is no wind shear?

[jab105]

12. I dont have cable...how do they explain the weakening at the west?

are they saying eye wall replacement? Even that would mean weakening if the eye cant be replaced in the 3-4 hours till landfall (eye wall replacement usually ~ 6 hours or so...)

[Stephanie]

15. CNN: Downgraded to Category 4

they just said

[Corgigal]

13. I believe intensity

is the hardest thing to determine. I found this out the hard way when only a tropical storm Gaston hit our home last summer. Trees down everywhere, one on my damn house. Days later weather service said, oh our bad, it was a hurricane after all. It matters for some reason to the insurance companies but the tree still came down on my house regardless what the damn thing was called.

I hope it's a Cat 4 and dies hourly, just don't bet on intensity.

edit: typo,

[jab105]

14. Fair enough, I was in North Central Florida during Frances last year

and had 5 trees come down (we were 100 miles from it, in the middle of the state) - with maximum GUSTS! of 70...one 100 ft. oak tree on my back roof...

[Corgigal]

16. yep

I have lots of family in the Tampa area and they were freaking out over Charlie. Charlie turned before reaching Tampa and Orlando, who always thought they were safe,got their butts kicked. You just really never know anymore. Everyone who went inland from Tampa to the Orlando area crossed into the path. These Hurricanes are basically living creatures and I think toy with us.

[Lorien]

19. Yep-got kicked hard by Charley

my neighborhood was fairly devastated (but not by Katrina standards, I fear). No power for two weeks. The eye went directly over my home. I looked up through it, into the stars in the pitch black darkness-until transformers exploding in the west and a growing roar signaled the approach of the second wall. Horrifying.

Praying that Katrina weakens far more before making landfall!!

[Horse with no Name]

18. I hope this is true

Where is your source for info? Or is this your speculation?