ABC / WashPost poll: Bush 54% approval (44% disapproval).

[Brotherjohn]

As with many other polls lately, that's his lowest yet (and highest disapproval). (http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm)

The ABC/WP poll has been typically one of the "better" polls for Bush, rating him the highest. It was the last holdout among recent polls to still have him in the high 50s (58%).

I wouldn't be surprised if the next two or three polls released put him around 45%. Especially once "Traitor-gate" sinks in. This poll was done yesterday, but the controversy was only just starting to ratchet up all over the news programs then (even though the big Post story was on Sunday). In fact, if polling was done in the AM, most people may not have even heard about it yet.

[Lorien]

1. Every online poll I've seen

in the past two weeks has * at about 29-36% approval (including the right leaning AOL). Who are these people that ABC has been polling?

[Brotherjohn]

5. While I agree that ABC is a little high, online polls are not scientific.

That being said, I think those numbers more accurately reflect his true popularity. They ARE subject to "freeping" (or "DUing"), which leads to greater innaccuracy. But I also think that the nature of online polling, being more anonymous, leads to more people being willing to give their true opinion. I think, by and large, Bush's approval ratings have been inflated b/c people just want to look like they're standing behind their country at a time of "war". That's fading, though.

All this being said, I think he's definitely headed to 30-40% in any poll, as evidenced by the Pollkatz graphic which I can barely go a day without posting...

[starscape]

10. can you send me that link?

Hi Brotherjohn, I've seen that graphic before and I'd love to have the link. I thought it was on zogby (and it might be) but I couldn't find it.

Thanks

[gristy]

12. pollkatz

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

click on "the snake", then on "approval"

[HFishbine]

13. starscape

the graphic is from: http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com

[starscape]

15. Thanks guys!

got it.

[0rganism]

20. I've noted his "sawtooth" approval rating in other threads

It's quite unlike the gentle wavy oscillation of other presidential approval ratings.

Without those fortuitous terrorist acts and the unnecessary-yet-motivational Iraq attaq, I suspect ratfucker would have long since decayed to his natural 35% approval rating, and vibrated there for the duration of his ill-gotten 4 years.

[gristy]

9. On-line polls may not be scientific, but by their nature, they

poll only those with considerable access to information (i.e., the internet). So it is no surprise that shrub's approval comes in lower in those polls. Apathetic, clueless yuks don't vote in on-line polls.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Nixon, he was very popular

when watergate began... this is what is going on

[Emboldened Chimp]

4. 54% isn't what I'd call "very popular"

"Barely popular" might be better, at least in regards to this particular polls. Qunnipiac has him under 50%, I believe. Not very popular...

[buff2]

3. 54% is too high of a rating

For a man that has tried his level best to destroy this country and other countries as well. I can't believe there are people who go along with all that he has done.If this was a sane country,people would be rioting in the streets demanding his impeachment.He should be around 30% if the repukes would just put their country first instead of their facist nazi party. This isn't the same America I grew up in. This is really sad and pathetic.

[gristy]

8. I think the most reasonable explanation is that

about 14% of those polled are diehard repukes, and about 40% of those polled simply aren't paying attention. The only way Bush can survive is through sustained apathy.

Another thing to remember is that those polled are not "likely voters", but a random sample of "adults". See the bottom of this page, for example, to see abc's "methodology".

[GOPFighter]

6. It's how you word the question...

the ABC/WP poll asks "Do you approve or disapprove of the way our Commander in Chief, who has done such a magnificent job of fighting terraists even as the demon Democrats viciously hound him day in and day out, is handling the job of President?"

It's amazing only 54% approve.


(Okay, okay, I lied) :evilgrin:

[Snellius]

7. When these polls have a margin of error of 3-4%

And they vary, one from another, asking the same question, by more than 3-4%, then how can they determine that the margin of error is 3-4%? Don't you have to know what the statistics "really" are in order to determine how accurate they are?

[0rganism]

21. 3-4% is the 95% confidence interval

You can think of it as the chance that the results are typical of the population, if the sample is truly random. In such cases, the pollsters are declaring that 19 of 20 random polls would be within 3-4% of their results.

Variations outside of that range reflect a flawed methodology, perhaps by using non-random sampling or unrealistic weighting. Zogby, which seems to have been the only accurate poll leading up to the 2000 election, is "lowballing" bush* by this standard -- why? I think Zogby, as an independent pollster, is using population weightings of his own devising, while some of the others may be using a "politically correct" weighting.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. His approval rating....

is at 45% according to Zogby and about 48%-51% everwhere else!

50% approval rating for Bushie!

[VolcanoJen]

14. Proof in the Pudding: CNN Poll to be released during Zahn's show...

... tonight, 8:00 pm.

CNN's last poll had Chimpy McFlightSuit at 52% Approval. Let's see if the WilsonGate Scandal has sunk in among the electorate... I doubt it has; far too early...

[Brotherjohn]

17. If it was taken yesterday and before, it's too soon.

The cable news programs really only started hammering this yesterday. I still think he might go down a bit, however, based on his pitiful U.N. performance.

[Brotherjohn]

16. You guys are being too pessimistic...

Bush being around 50% shows that it's really sinking in with the populace. Keep in mind, he was near 90, and has been steadily declining... even steeper after Iraq than before. So 50% at this stage sounds good to me, especially when it shows no signs of levelling off anytime soon.

I think these things (facts, lies, etc.) take some time to sink in. Call it apathy, ignorance, insanity... whatever (hey, some people are just damn busy!). But most people determine whether they like/dislike the president based on soundbites.

What they heard for a year was "Iraq=9-11", "Iraq has WMDs", and "Iraq is a threat" (mostly from the president). Now they're hearing (including from the president, although he's being forced to admit it) "Iraq does NOT = 9-11", "Iraq does NOT have WMDs", and "Iraq was NOT a threat".

Whereas the first soundbites jibed with the need to go to war, the ones they're hearing lately do NOT. They're starting to get the picture.

[David__77]

18. Good... not good enough.

We need to harden that opposition into a visceral hatred. I good healthy dislike in the best American tradition! It's anger and hate that will fuel our campaign workers next year as much as hope and love.

[West Coast Democrat]

19. Here are the numbers for Traitorgate

http://www.pollingreport.com/bush.htm