So much for the big high-tech computer simulation that predicted

[The_Casual_Observer]

the code 5 hurricane coming into to destroy NO. Seems as though the whole gigantic scare was due in large part because of a "model", never mind that a hurricane of that intensity hitting land in the gulf coast probably hasn't happened in recorded history.

[evil eggplant]

1. They came *real* close

They were saying a direct hit to NO three days ago. Katrina missed by 30 miles. A whole coastline and they get it right to within 30 miles. Thats good fucking science, my friend.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[The_Casual_Observer]

9. I would like to know just how easy it would have "gone the other way"

How many hurricanes have hit land at the intensity predicted by this science? This thing predicted a flood of epic proportions and was completely accepted as fact.

[petronius]

17. Landfall was forecast as "at least Cat. 4"

It was a Cat. 4 - so the forecast was correct...

[arcos]

You are absolutely right... they said "category 4 or maybe cat 5"...

They never said it was going to be category 5 at landfall, just that it might. And they always insisted that intensity could fluctuate, and that it is very hard for category 5 hurricanes to stay that way for a long time.

[Karenina]

47. See, a bunch of us watching

did a DU mass consciousness mind-meld, knowing the potential of the storm and that SOMEBODY was gonna get hit hard and with the best of bad choices willed the eye away from a direct hit on Nawlins while raising the barometric pressure and slowing the winds. Yes, I do believe we did. T'was the best we could do in a BAD situation and I'm PROUD of us. We changed the trajectory ever so slightly in concert. We've done it before and we'll do it again as we are CONNECTED with our Mother Earth and our fellow humans. :tinfoilhat:

[lastliberalintexas]

29. It wasn't the modeling that necessitated that prediction

It's the fact that New Orleans is BELOW SEA LEVEL. A direct hit from this storm- or even a hit just to the west of New Orleans- really does spell disaster for those people.

[DoYouEverWonder]

32. I guess you haven't heard about the storm surge

that has hit major areas of LA, MS, and AL? I've heard 18' of water in some places and getting deeper. This thing isn't anywhere near over yet. The real fun has just begun.

BTW: How many hurricanes have you been in?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

104. In your eagerness to score points in a game that only you seem to....

...be playing, you seem to have missed the reports that have come in today about a storm surge that was much higher than expected.

And yes, if the storm had gone a little to the west...about 25-30 miles...New Orleans would currently look like some of the destroyed towns along the Mississippi coast.

Maybe you ought to spend more time checking out the various news reports before you post any more comments.

[rman]

127. Maybe you accepted it as fact,

but i think is was clear so most that the precise extent of damage was unknown in advance.

[Blue_In_AK]

145. Try telling the people down there that it wasn't "epic"...

...and it's not over yet. You seem somewhat callous.

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[The_Casual_Observer]

33. I think that I am the ignorant fool , the response was misplaced.

It's just as well, I have a thick skin:-)

[WiseButAngrySara]

39. No, you made the post, and it was an honest opinion...We're not

meteorologists, and DUers know the lack of honesty and desire for ratings per MSM. My remark was for The Watcher's response to evil eggplant...Totally inappropriate, IMHO.

[TheWatcher]

43. Just Drop It Sara

I apologized for being rude, but the basis of my opinion is still quite correct. I am not sure how much you have been following this storm, but this was a Category 5 that was closing in with winds of 175 MPH with gusts over 200 on Sunday as it was closing in. This was an incredibly dangerous storm, and to suggest that the MSM did this for ratings is a very foolish assessment.

If Katrina had not turned at the last minute, New Orleans would have been lost, or at the very least cataclysmicaly damaged.

There was no lcak of honesty. Nature gave NO a break. But if you actually read about what's going on down there, I hardly think the residents who are STILL not being allowed to return and are displaced for an undetermined amount of time would agree with that.

This was NOT sensationalism.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

107. From what I've heard tonight, quite a few people are still trapped....

...in their attics.

And somewhere between 50-55 people have already been counted among the dead in Harrison County, Mississippi.

This is a disaster of epic proportions...too bad some people want to split hairs about how strong Katrina was when she finally struck.

[TheWatcher]

40. It was a bit rude and I apologize CO

I should not have been so blunt. Looking back now, i wish I had toned it down a bit. :) Forgive me for being so Crass.

Like I said, I have a dear friend that got stuck down there and could not get out. We have not heard from her, and I suppose I am very worried.

But for the record, Katrina was not hype or sensationalism. It was very lucky that things went down the way they did but this was still a very bad event, and we still do not know the full extent of things yet.

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

41. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TheWatcher]

44. You're welcome to your opinion.

Like I said. DROP IT.

[WiseButAngrySara]

45. CO and evil eggplant are also '[welcome to their opinions' without

being called fools. Why are you threatening me?

[TheWatcher]

46. Did you not see where I apologized to CO?

And how exactly was I "threatening" you? Please.

Like I said. DROP IT. This discussion is over.

[WiseButAngrySara]

69. IMHO, You owe me an apology....

"I am not sure how much you have been following this storm, but this was a Category 5 that was closing in with winds of 175 MPH with gusts over 200 on Sunday as it was closing in."

I lived in NO for 1 year in 1994, at the end of my residency, and have many friends at Tulane Medical Center, and at Charity Hospital who are still there. I also made friends with the locals in NO, Slidell and Houma. I love the City. I love its' history, its' culture, its' beauty. I was up most of the evening watching the coverage.

"This was an incredibly dangerous storm, and to suggest that the MSM did this for ratings is a very foolish assessment. This was NOT sensationalism."

I never said that. In fact, the only opinions that I gave, were 1.) your rudeness and 2.) agreeing with your assessment of the situation.

"But if you actually read about what's going on down there, I hardly think the residents who are STILL not being allowed to return and are displaced for an undetermined amount of time would agree with that."

I am acutely aware of this, as should be obvious from what I posted above.

"And just in cease you think it was a cake walk and a waste of time. Try pulling your head out and try READING what the hell is going on there right now. 50-70% of the city is flooded and will be without power for a month, and the seriousness of the flooding and how bad it will get is STILL not known."

You are insulting beyond belief.

"if it's all the same to you, I would much prefer you Stay Out Of My Face.
That would be very WISE of you."

This isn't threatening? Your completely incorrect assumptions about what you thought were my opinions are not threatening?

[The_Casual_Observer]

72. Sara, I have been called stupid, Ignorant and so on here

I don't take it seriously, nor should you, mostly because I think that that comment was directed at me in the first place.

My point to all this was that the predictions were the most dire that I have ever heard in my life, and continued to escalate to the point of the "Atlantis" thing. Was this justified based on reality and past experience or a computer model? Was it responsible ?Most of the people here seemed to think so and thats OK with me. If emotions are so high that someone feels the need to cast out a personal insult for emphasis, then that's OK too.

[WiseButAngrySara]

75. I agree that the comment was probably directed to you after I read it

the second time, based on content, but it was posted to evil eggplant. Regardless of to whom the remark was made, it was rude. And I responded to that, and I was blasted with arrogant assumptions and more rudeness! This place sounds like what freeperland is described to be like!

I know what you're saying about the media possibly 'overdoing' it, but having lived in NO next to Lake Ponchetrain, and worrying about those ancient pumps below sea level every time we had a big rain storm, and truly valueing the beauty and culture that NO has to offer the US, I too, worried about an 'Atlantis' or 'Armageddon', or 'a catastrophic event of Biblical proportions' (all quotes I heard last night and into the wee hours this am.) But who knows?

I appreciate your candor...Maybe I need a thicker skin!

[TheWatcher]

88. I didn't threaten you. That is ludicrous.

The comment in question was in response to you making snide, stupid little comments about my username. In turn I coined a phrase using yours. If you took THAT as a threat you are overly sensitive beyond belief.

You are the one who seeks to continue in a confrontational fashion. I said this discussion is over. As far as I'm concerned it is dropped. I apologized to Casual Observer because I felt i was rude to him, and that it was warranted for me to do so.

The post in question was betweeen me and CO and had not a whit to do with you. You chose to insert yourself and be rude and nasty yourself.

Tensions are running high on this board right now because the Storm has affected many of us in a personal way. Sometimes tempers flare. I have a friend who got stuck down there, and we still have not heard from her yet, so yes, I am a bit edgy today. Deal with it.

I didn't see anything in your post where you agreed with my assessment, just a personal attack.

I am not responding to you further.

[petronius]

25. Very good indeed

People should keep in mind that forecasting of weather events deals with probabilities - it's not a question of drawing a single line on a map and if the eye leaves the line then the forecast is wrong. In this case, the track appears to be pretty much down the middle of the predicted swath, and most of the points given a high probability of experiencing hurricane strength winds did in fact get them. I'd call it very successful forecasting.

If in fact the damage total falls near the low end of the range of possibilities, then LA has been very fortunate, and should immediately start learning from the experience...

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

65. Yesterday at 2:16 in the afternoon (central)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4484676

This is NOT "The Day After" about to happen.

This is a huge category 5 hurricane at this point similar to the last one that hit the area.

There may be tragic death and destruction but I feel that since we have learned from the likes of Camille and Andrew, it will not be on the armageddon like scale that many here and in TV land are predicting.

I will take bets that New Orleans will still be there Tuesday morning. The casinos on the beach and ocean in Biloxi? That's another question.

That comes from living in the Southeast for over forty years and paying attention to the way the weather works added to the data available from the internet at noaa and other sources.

That said, after I turned off the computer and turned on the TV news, they scared the shit out of me as well. It's their job. The more fright, the more viewers, the more advertisers, the more money.

This was a terrible storm and I am sure we are going to find more casualties than the two here in Alabama that have been reported.

IMO, there were a lot of people online and in the news and other areas looking for their 15 minutes of fame. BUT in acknowledging the potential disaster they did the right thing which DID save lives in getting the vast majority of people to leave and get out of harm's way.

peace.

[Horse with no Name]

2. The hurricane veered East at the last minute

The model was for a direct hit--which didn't happen.

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. Wasn't a #5 either.

[Horse with no Name]

8. It was up until the very last hours before it made landfall

When the eyewall replaced itself, it slowed the storm.
Generally when that happens the storm will weaken and then it will intensify...luckily it made landfall before it had a chance to intensify.
I call that a fucking miracle.

[The_Casual_Observer]

11. I call it a common occurrence not predicted by the computer model.

[Walt Starr]

13. And I call it just plain dumb luck of the draw n/t

[Media_Lies_Daily]

109. It was predicted to be a Cat 4 or stronger at landfall.

[eallen]

4. Yeah, yeah. The models are always wrong.

The storm weakened a bit before landfall, and thankfully went just a bit east, so New Orleans is badly flooded, but not destroyed. Never mind that this is all within the envelope of prediction. Never mind, had the worst happened and the weather service not warned about it, they would have been hung out to dry. Never mind that the models give us much better tracking than existed just a few years ago.

Let's just decry the models, because they're always wrong.

:wtf:

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

66. Read the note at the top right corner of this computer model....

It's on every one you'll see.

"Computer models subject to large errors. Do not use for planning purposes."

:wtf:

[garthranzz]

5. It veered 25 miles 6 hours before landfall

and that made all the difference between a manageable disaster and a total catastrophe. I live there. They got this one right - 80% evacuated and it was for the best this time.

[BlueEyedSon]

7. So what was it, a 4? Good thing there were no deaths or damage!

[tjdee]

23. There are bodies in the water and lots of damage....

um, were you being facetious?

[BlueEyedSon]

81. Um... check out the ridiculous original post

[Garbo 2004]

10. Camille Cat 5 1969

A look back at Hurricane Camille

Hurricane Camille, the USA's second strongest 20th century hurricane, hit the Gulf Coast in 1969.

Camille became a hurricane on Aug. 15, 1969 south of Cuba and began quickly growing that night as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico. On the morning of Aug. 17, when Camille was centered about 250 miles south of Mobile, Ala., an Air Force reconnaissance plane measured a barometric pressure of 26.84 inches of mercury and winds of more than 200 mph.

Until that report, Camille had been expected to push a 12-foot storm surge ashore when it hit Mississippi. But the Air Force observation prompted forecasters to alert local officials to a surge maybe twice that high. Wade Guice, who was then civil defense director for Harrison County, Miss., said the warning prompted additional, last-minute evacuations. He characterized the plane's report as "the difference between survival and 10,000 tombstones."

Still, when Camille's eye smashed into the Pass Christian, Miss., area with winds gusting to 200 mph and water 24 feet above normal high tide, it killed 143 people along the coast from Alabama into Louisiana.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wcamille.htm

[Media_Lies_Daily]

102. Katrina's storm surge may well have been above 30 feet in some....

...areas, and Katrina's minimum pressure at the first landfall in Louisiana was 907, lower than Camille's 909 in 1969.

I just finished watching a man on the Weather Channel who had also survived Camille, and he said the damage from Katrina was FAR worse.

I'm not real sure what point you're trying to make, but Katrina did a real bad number on a lot of people living along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The storm is also continuing to do a lot of damage as it heads inland...gusts have hit 60 mph outside my house in Huntsville, AL, and power has gone out in a number of areas.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

103. Tell me about it.... It's going to be a mess tomorrow morning....

Lights have been going on and off here.

[Garbo 2004]

124. Did you mean to respond to the OP who said "never mind that a hurricane of

that intensity hitting land in the gulf coast probably hasn't happened in recorded history."

But if you did mean to respond to me, my point to the OP simply was that in 1969 a Cat 5 did indeed hit the gulf coast. Just a factoid of which the OP apparently was unaware.

And yes I too have heard reports that some folks, based on their previous experience, think the damage from Katrina appears worse and more extensive than Camille.

Last night I was concerned not just for NO but also the others in its projected path since it was such a big storm. I was concerned that some folks may have thought that they would not hit so hard and could make it through since so much of the news was concentrating on NO. And that was before the storm turned. It's a regional disaster and the full human toll and suffering has yet to be discerned.

[Walt Starr]

12. BULLSHIT!

A Category 5 hurricane did not have a direct hit on New Orleans today. A Category 4 missed New Orleans to the east.

HUGE difference between the potential scenario and the one that played out. Bullshit hyperbole from internet posters whining about how they didn't get the disaster that was advertised as potential notwithstanding.

[kestrel91316]

122. You might want to ask the folks in SLIDELL how they fared. Or Empire.

Or Chalmette, or ENO, or the 9th Ward.

They might disagree with your assessment. But then again, they might be dead.

[Beaverhausen]

14. what? not enough death and destruction for you?

[QC]

15. You sound disappointed.

Have another latté--it'll make you feel better.

[KittyWampus]

16. This Thread Won't Get Locked. But It's Premise, That This Was Just Hype

is so fucked up it's dangerous.

[redqueen]

53. Isn't it though?

Why do we persist in being so $#&*@($ easy to herd?

[Bluebear]

18. I thought a category 4 missed NO to the east?

Isn't that what happened?

[kevsand]

22. Just barely

on both counts. It was only about 30 miles east (with an eye 40 miles across) and just a few mph shy of a cat 5.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

108. Katrina's minimum pressure at landfall was 915 mb...7 mb lower....

...than Andrew when it struck Florida, and 6 mb more than Camille in 1969.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

19. I'm thinkin' that all those millions of prayers pushed it just

off the mark of destroying the city and all it's inhabitants. I noticed that even some hard core non-believers here at DU were joining in that prayer last night!

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. I think it was a quirk of weather

Though I'm sure we'll agree that its veering was a good thing, whether it was the complex system of weather or sweet baby Jesus that veered the fucker. ;-)

[tinfoilinfor2005]

63. It WAS a quirk of weather. I have observed in the past 59 years

that the quirks in life are often initiated by some serious prayer.

[alcibiades_mystery]

82. To each his own belief

Cheers :toast:

[tinfoilinfor2005]

84. Amen!

:)
I don't normally "tawk religion" on this website, but lately the wingnuts have been pissing me off. God is not exclusive to them, so this hurricane prompted me to speak up.

And I certainly respect you for your beliefs as well, my friend.

[kevsand]

20. "the whole gigantic scare was due in large part"

to a huge freaking storm that was sending tendrils from Georgia to Honduras. There are reports today of record breaking storm surges that have swamped the Gulf coast. This was not hyperbole, this was responsible reporting of a devastating range of probabilities in the interest of public safety. The wind had only dropped 20 mph from its peak when it made landfall. The model was, in fact, amazingly accurate considering the number of variables involved in a weather system this size.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

110. Ah, don't be arguing from a factual basis! You know some people....

..."can't handle the truth".

[Mutley]

24. They have to give the worse case scenario.

Can you imagine if they said only that it would be a cat 3 or 4 and we ended up with a 5? How many lives were saved because of the "hype", you think? The death toll is going to be pretty bad for this day and age, and it could have been much worse if all those people hadn't evacuated.

[The_Casual_Observer]

28. It would be interesting to find out just how plausible

the assumed total loss of New Orleans actually were. No argument about playing it safe, it just seemed to me that the news about this became very extreme very quickly. I suppose, based on the responses to this that I ought to just shut up.

[Garbo 2004]

76. Transcript from 2002 program re: expectation if NO hit directly by Cat 5

hurricane.

Small excerpt:

And just across the Mississippi River, Walter Maestri is struggling to help New Orleans prepare. Maestri is the czar of public emergencies in Jefferson Parish (that's the county that sprawls across a third of the metropolitan area). He points to a map of the region on the wall of his command post.

"A couple of days ago," explains Maestri, "We actually had an exercise where we brought a fictitious Category Five Hurricane into the metropolitan area."

The map is covered with arrows and swirls in erasable marker. They show how the fictitious hurricane crossed Key West and then smacked into New Orleans.

When the computer models showed Maestri what would happen next, he wrote big letters on the map, all in capitals.

"KYAGB—kiss your ass good bye," reads Maestri.

"Because," says Maestri, "anyone who was here when that storm came across was gone—it was body-bag time. We think 40,000 people could lose their lives in the metropolitan area."

And some scientists say that figure is conservative. People have known for centuries that New Orleans is a risky spot — the biggest river in North America wraps around it; and most of the land is below sea level. But researchers say they've been learning just how grave the problem is, only in the last few years. And they say the city and the nation aren't prepared to handle it.
http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane1.html

Fortunately Katrina wasn't a direct hit on NO and it wasn't a 5 by the time it came ashore. Bad enough though for millions of those in its path. No doubt evacuations saved lives.

[shance]

96. You should not ever shut up Observer. You are insightful and make

good observations.

And, you are right.

It was very extreme, very quickly, like so many other "LOOK HERE, BE SCARED" warnings we receive, they are designed to scare and immobilize, which they did and they do for all of us because we don't know how bad its going to be. Of course who knows which ones are real and which ones arent from the Republican/White House media. Unfortunately this one did look ominous and in fact it was horrific. However they made it sound like Atlantis. In fact, they used that very term.

What I am learning more than anything, is every day is opposite day with the Administration and with our CORPORATE MEDIA. Which in other words means, you cannot believe a word coming from the cable networks unless in my opinion proven otherwise.

I would much rather go with internet or sources that have no other desire than to shed light on the truth, and/or desire for the facts to be understood and known.

It amazes me how many would rather continue to believe in this media that lies to them every day, than to take the time and courage to look at the discrepencies and even do something as basic as follow their instincts. Some, including known writers here would rather ridicule those who are doing legitimate research, than face their own fears of what the truth really is, and that they are being lied to, even more than they realize.

We'll never be safe and we'll never be a healthy and happier society if we allow the lies we are being fed to continue on as if they are true, and/or equally damaging, as if the lies do not exist.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

117. Oh, brother. Please tell me what "lies" you, or anyone else, were....

...told about Katrina.

If it hadn't been for a 30-40 mile jog to the east, neither you nor CO would be making the remarks you are now.

Give it a rest.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

111. I agree 100% with your last sentence.

[rman]

139. Had the eye passed to the west of NO,

the storm surge at NO would have been much more severe than it was.

Even now that the worst case scenario did not take place, much of NO is flooded, much poperty has been damaged and more then a few people have died.

[Mutley]

143. The news did become extreme very quickly.

But after seeing the news broadcasts today about the flooding; can you imagine if a Cat 5 had made a direct hit on NO? How so much worse it would be? If that 25ft surge had hit NO, and not Biloxi? And if the media had never said a word about the possibility of that happening?

[gorrister]

62. exactly

the media can't win. If they predict the worst and it doesn't happen, they're accused of "over-hyping it." If they downplay it and the worst happens, then it's "oh why oh why didn't they warn us?!?"

[lastliberalintexas]

26. Ah, you ain't from round these parts, are ya?

Camille slammed the Gulf Coast in the very same area about 40 years ago. I'd say that was recorded history.

And there was also Audrey, Betsy...

And instead of cheering the last minute jog to the east, you're bashing the computer models? Yep, Mother Nature can fool us anytime she wants- but those models help save thousands of lives. Need an example of what would happen without those models and the warnings they make possible- can you say Galveston?

[arcos]

30. Too bad we can't recommend for a "most ignorant thread" category... nt

[The_Casual_Observer]

35. Based on all this New Orleans was written off as "Atlantis"

yesterday afternoon. Was that a reasonable assumption? That's all I'm asking.

[arcos]

36. Sure, because that was one possibility...

People tend to focus on worst case scenarios... it's the natural thing to do, it's part of our survival instinct. Fact is, during Sunday afternoon Katrina was a category 5... the NHC said intensity might fluctuate and it did. A few hours later, one of the early am advisories was clear in that Katrina was not going to strengthen any further, and said it was going to make landfall as category 4. But just 6 hours earlier landfall as category 5 was a very real possibility.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

112. At the time the predictions were being made,....

...yes, it was VERY reasonable to assume that one of the strongest (175 mph) and largest Cat 5 storms EVER seen in the Gulf and heading straight for New Orleans would cause catastrophic damage.

Yes, it was VERY reasonable. Any more questions?

[Hissyspit]

120. The article I posted clearly said "COULD," as in possibly...

all through the article it said 'could' happen, not 'is going to' happen.

[rman]

131. I think you observe to casually.

[redqueen]

55. hahahahaha

:D

[QC]

64. We really do need that option.

Maybe ten votes could send the thread to the archives. It would do wonders for the quality of the posts here.

[markus]

101. I second this motion. Did this thread have a point?

The track models Maddy McCall posted Friday afternoon were dead on.
Those maps got my family and some friends out the door half a day sooner.

[leftofthedial]

31. hurricanes are worse and more numerous

don't discount the effects of global warming on future hurricanes

but you're right, the hysteria is fueled by a media run amok.

[Igel]

34. I'll contribute to the clubbing.

Yesterday, there were DUers posting to complain that they didn't start the evacuation earlier. That the people weren't even more cautious--in other words, if there's a smaller chance than the model predicted as of yesterday morning, they should have evacuated.

Then there's people complaining that they were too cautious.

I guess if people are complaining in about equal numbers in both directions they did it just about right.

Models are all we have. They're the best guess based on analyses. They're not perfect; but information from this storm season will be considered in the next revision of the various models.

And even if something hasn't happened, we shouldn't conclude it can't. (Leaving aside that posters are saying a category 5 hurricane did strike MS.)

[Media_Lies_Daily]

114. Lower pressure than Andrew at the Mississippi landfall, and....

...a higher storm surge than Camille's record-maker in 1969, and a larger storm in size than either Andrew or Camille?

Yes, it's possible that it was indeed a Cat 5.

Remember, meteorologists had to up Andrew's category a few years ago after all the studies were completed.

[edhopper]

38. This was an

ignorant post. (I said ignorant, not stupid)
This WAS a Cat. 5 hurricane when it was in the Gulf. If it hit NO head on, the flooding and damage predicted were highly probable.
It swerved off and loss some intensity, but the danger was very real.
Instead of posting a thread like this, do a web search and read about Camille, the Fla Keys hurricane of 1935 and the 1906 Galveston Storm (8000 dead!)

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

73. Look at the dates you posted.

No one has said there should not have been a serious evacuation. It was a good thing.

Thanks to Camille and other hurricanes, the warning system has improved and should be heeded. Our warning and evacuation system is light years ahead of where it was when Camille hit. That's one of the main reasons there is not going to be a death toll like there was in the catastrophies you mentioned.

But the sensationalism that was exhibited here was irresponsible at best. "10's of thousand will die!" was one of the more noteworthy.

Look at the models. Note the statement on them: "Computer models are subject to LARGE errors and should not be used for planning purposes."

I don't think this was an ignorant post as you do, and I will not say that about your post. I do feel that there was a lot of something being slung by a lot of people who bought into the sensationalism that today's media is so good at pumping.

peace.

[mondo joe]

42. Yeah - we don't need no steenking computers.

In fact why forecast at all?

What a stupid-ass thread.

[fujiyama]

48. Luddite power!

Yea!

[mondo joe]

56. Right on! After all, if a computer can be in error about the weather

they're no good!

We can always go to faith-based forecasts.

[OrlandoGator]

49. Hurricanes are difficult to predict:

Look at the crazy path Jeanne took last year:

[QC]

50. I guess they must not have hurricanes in Tustin, dude!

Live through one or two of them and you'll see why people tend to assume the worst until they know otherwise. Those models save lives. "Reasoning" like yours is what gets people killed.

[fujiyama]

51. Let's take a look at two scenarios:

Scenario 1: No computer models exist - no one knows of a cat 5 hurricane approaching or don't take it seriously. Few people evacuate. Lots of people die.

Scenario 2: Computer models show a possible worst case scenario based on what the satellite model shows, people evacuate, people live.

Which case sounds better?

[The_Casual_Observer]

59. If worst case senarios are the way to go, and save the most lives

then so be it.

[fujiyama]

74. There certainly is work to do

with these models. They obviously aren't foolproof and likely never will be. There will always be some error involved. That's inherant in all calculations, which are what models are.

But technology is always evolving. With better understanding of hurricanes and better satellite technology, better predictions will be made. What we have now is certainly better than what we had a hundred or even forty years ago.

[The Night Owl]

52. Scientific simulations are used to predict possibilities, not certainties.

[darkstar]

54. "whole gigantic scare"

Yep. Even the Red Cross fell for it. Largest mobilization in RC hitory currently underway. They are as stupid as the modelers, it appears. Maybe even moreso. They should know, now that it's after the fact, that this was no big deal.

:sarcasm:

[CatholicEdHead]

57. Computer models do poorly with hurricanes

that is because there are gross assumpstions used which compound errors for the model as it runs on each timeframe. As the science improves, the models will improve. More needs to be discovered about the storm processes and their interaction with the seawater.

Considering Friday it was forcast to hit the panhandle as a 1 or 2, what actually happened was a drastic shift.

[QC]

58. The models actually did a good job on this one.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL122005

But yeah, on Friday I came home from work believing the storm would pass right over my town, then awoke Saturday to see that the models had shifted almost 300 miles west. But they turned out to be right.

[Telly Savalas]

95. Someone correct me if I'm wrong...

but isn't a lot of weather modelling based on differential equations where a slight change in the initial conditions can lead to radically different results? The fact they can predict the course of a hurricane as well as they do is pretty damn impressive if you ask me.

[moondust]

60. The "authorities"

are always going to err on the side of caution. Unless they are Republicans and sense that there may be some big profits in sending other people's kids off to die for them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

61. Those Models Have Margins Of Errors...

nt

[High Plains]

67. I don't have a problem with the models...

...but with those people posting yesterday who were telling us New Orleans would be destroyed and that tens of thousands would die--and then ridiculing anyone who dared to disagree with them. They seem pretty damned quiet today, though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

68. I Miss The Threads That Said The SuperDome Would Crumble...

I said I am confident I will wake up tomorrow morning and the SuperDome will be largely intact... I also said with the passing of time with no power it will be a most unpleasant place...

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

78. Tell me about it...

I couldn't believe getting slammed for suggesting that there would not be an Armageddon-like disaster. It's strange being called ignorant for being right.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

80. The SuperDome Will Crumble Threads Were More Entertaining

It was as if it was the Titanic....

All that was missing was Kate Winslett and Leonardo DiCaprio...

[DoYouEverWonder]

85. Not an Armageddon-like disaster?

Tell that to all the people whose homes are flooded right now. Tell that to the people in East New Orleans, Slidell and Gulf Port. Just because the Superdome didn't lose its roof completely doesn't mean we're not dealing with one of the biggest natural disasters to ever hit the US.

We haven't even begun to realize how bad this is going to be in some areas.

BTW: Have you ever actually been in a hurricane? Do you know how much it sucks to have your house flooded or your roof blown off? To have no electric for days or weeks? Try a couple of days of what the folks who have lost their homes and everything they own have to go through and get back to me. Then we'll see if you'll be so cavalier.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

87. Yes I have. And then some. No one here is diminishing the losses

what's in question is the doomsayers with "tens of thousands dead" and "New Orleans will cease to exist."

This is a terrible catastrophe. No one is saying differently.

Is it Bhopal? Is it the Christmas Tsunami? Is it Galveston? 1931 Yangtze flood that left 3.7 million dead? What about the Monsoons in India, Nepal and Bangladesh that killed over 1800 and left 5 million homeless only last year? Galveston? The Twin Towers?

Thank God, this is not even close. This was bad. Terrible. And I grieve for the people who have died and have lost their homes and possessions. But thank God, it was not on the scale that the doomsayers were crying.

And yes, I've been in Hurricanes and tornadoes. I've also been on crews that have had to go in and try to help repair the wreckage. Ever followed a trail of blood from a shattered plate glass window for 100 yards before finally having it disappear to nothing and no hint of who or what it was?

It's easy to write checks your mouth can't cash when you aren't standing in front of the man you're insulting, isn't it?

[DoYouEverWonder]

90. I never post something

that I am not willing to say to someone's face.

Now please show me a post from yesterday where anyone predicted tens of thousands dead?

BTW: We still have no clue how many are dead. This storm has already killed 11 in Florida, I expect it will end up killing a few more then that in LA & MS. The good thing about hurricanes is that people usually do have time to evacuate and I've heard reports that 80% of the people in NO evacuated. That makes a big difference when it comes to death toll.

Besides since you are so experienced dealing with hurricanes you know that most of the damage has not been assessed yet and that for those without electric, food or property the worst is yet to come.

The same thing happened during Andrew. At first all the reports said that the storm wasn't that bad. It took a day or two for the rest of the world to find out how much was destroyed by that storm. Again we did not have a major loss of life but Andrew still ranks up there with an Armageddon event in my book.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

94. Here:

xxxxxxx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sun Aug-28-05 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #100
102. Ummm...


Sad to say, but you don't know what you are talking about.

Tens of thousands will be dead by tomorrow afternoon if a miracle does not change the course of this storm. It is a mathematical equation.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4481023&mesg_id=4485134

And Andrew was bad, but if you can look beyond the borders of our cozy little America, it pales with only 15 dead directly from the storm. Unless Chinese and Indonesians don't count as much as Americans?

[DoYouEverWonder]

97. Well I suppose there had to be at least one

You win the point.

In regards to magnitude, I am not saying that one life counts more then another. All disasters suck. We just don't really know yet how much this one is going to suck when all is said and done.

I hear there are at least 100's of people stuck up in their attics and on their roofs right now who can't get out and who knows how many more have died who couldn't get that high? Maybe we should wait until we get the whole picture before we pass judgement on how major a tragedy we are dealing with?








edit: Just in - 50 found dead in Harrison County, MS. I hope that we don't get too many more reports like this.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

98. We can certainly agree on that. Ironically, Katrina's remenants

Just knocked out my power with a surge that actually reset my bios!

I had just heard about the 50 in Gulfport. I know that area and there's a lot of areas that have to have suffered a lot of damage. There's some beautiful antebellum homes down there that I hope survived but I know they didn't without a lot of damage.

I'm afraid that this storm's toll is going to be quite a bit worse than Andrew's. But, there's not as many wealthy white people in Southern Mississippi as there are in Southern Florida so I'm afraid it won't get the play that Andrew got.

Peace.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

118. Andrew didn't get any play until the lady in Dade County made a....

...number of comments on live television about the area not getting any help. That caused a flurry of activity from embarrassed pols, including Pres Poppy, that should have been on the scene from the very first day.

As to the number of "wealthy white people" in south Florida geting quick attention, Homestead, FL, is one of the poorest areas in the entire state, and almost ceased to exist the day Andrew blew over them.

You might also be surprised at the number of "wealthy white people" that live in southern Mississippi, especially along the Gulf coast.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

121. I really can't argue with anything you say there.

But once you get past the beach front property you have all the service workers for the casinos and other resort industries that unfortunately don't make a lot of money.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

125. As A Lifelong Floridian I Have Lived Through At Least Eight Hurricanes

The last four hurricanes I was responsible for the well being of my mom who is eighty seven years old, an amputee, and a stage three colon cancer survivor....


People were saying the SuperDome would crumble.... Based on common sense and a rudimentary understanding of construction I knew that was a joke and it was.... Turn on your tv or go to an internet site; it's still there...


Some folks were predicting the end of the world, a tragedy of Biblical proportions... It didn't happen....


Nobody is diminishing the tragedy of Katrina... It's a disaster but it's not Armageddon...

[DoYouEverWonder]

130. I've lived in FL for almost 30 years

None of the hurricanes that have hit us in the last 50 have caused the flooding that Katrina is causing and only Andrew was has strong. Fortunately Andrew did not drop a lot of water because it went through so quick.

If you don't think this disaster is of biblical proportions yet maybe you need a new set of eyeglasses?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

133. To Quote Mr. Joad

"This is a terrible catastrophe. No one is saying differently.

Is it Bhopal? Is it the Christmas Tsunami? Is it Galveston? 1931 Yangtze flood that left 3.7 million dead? What about the Monsoons in India, Nepal and Bangladesh that killed over 1800 and left 5 million homeless only last year? Galveston? The Twin Towers?

Thank God, this is not even close. This was bad. Terrible. And I grieve for the people who have died and have lost their homes and possessions. But thank God, it was not on the scale that the doomsayers were crying"

-Tom Yossarian Joad

[DemocratSinceBirth]

134. Etcetera

"If you don't think this disaster is of biblical proportions yet maybe you need a new set of eyeglasses? "




Worst Natural Disasters In History


Here is a list of the worst natural disasters in recorded history.

Currently, the 2004 South Asia tsunamis would have the highest fatality count for a tsunami event, surpassing a tsunami in 1896 that killed 27,000 people in Japan.

2004 - South Asia

An earthquake causes tsunamis that hit Sri Lanka, Indonesia, India, Thailand and other South Asian nations. The death toll is more than 120,000.

2003 - Iran

A 6.3 quake devastated the Iranian city of Bam, killing more than 50,000 people.

1999 - Venezuela

The death toll is still unclear from the rain-caused landslides that hit Venezuela in mid-December 1999; official estimates are as high as 30,000 deaths.

1998 - Central America

Hurricane Mitch devastates much of Honduras and Nicaragua in Central America. More than 10,000 people were killed and some 2 million left homeless as mudslides swept away whole villages.

1991 - Bangladesh

Bangladesh lost more than 130,000 people in April 1991 from cyclone-induced flooding.

1990 - Iran

An earthquake triggers a landslide, causing from 40,000 to 50,000 deaths in western Iran on June 20, 1990.

1988 - Armenia

In 1988, an earthquake measuring 6.9 on the Richter scale devastates Armenia, killing over 100,000 people perished.

1985 - Colombia

And a small eruption of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia on November 13, 1985 leads to a massive mudflow that covers the city of Armero and kills more than 23,000 people.

1983 - Thailand

Monsoons kill 10,000 people in Thailand over the course of three months in 1983. Some 100,000 people contracted waterborne diseases as a result of the storm.

1976 - China

A deadly earthquake of a magnitude 8.0 strikes Tianjin, China, on July 27, 1976. The official casualty figure issued by the Chinese government was 255,000 people.

1970 - Bangladesh

Bangladesh loses more than 300,000 people in November 1970 from cyclone-induced flooding.

1970 - Peru

A magnitude 7.8 earthquake at Mount Huascaran, Peru, on May 21, 1970, causes a rock and snow avalanche that buries 2 towns, killing as many as 20,000 people.

1959 - China

In July 1959, massive floods in China kill at least 2 million people.

1938 and 1939 - China

Floods kill 1 million people in a two-year period in China.

1931 - China

The massive flooding of the Yangtze River in China in 1931 caused more than 3 million deaths from flooding and starvation.

1902 - Martinique

The eruption of Mont Pelée in Martinique, Lesser Antilles, in 1902, kills nearly 30,000 people.

1896 - Japan

About 27,000 people drown following an earthquake-induced tsunami off the coast of Japan.

1887 - China

In 1887, about 900,000 people died when the country's Yellow River burst its banks in the worst-ever recorded flooding.

1883 - Indonesia

On August 26, Krakatoa, a small volcano on an uninhabited island between Sumatra and Java, explodes. The eruption and a tsunami kill 36,000 people in this Indonesian region.

1815 - Indonesia

A volcanic eruption of Mount Tambora on Indonesia's Sumbawa island in 1815 kills than 90,000 people.

1780 - Caribbean

"The Great Hurricane" hits the Caribbean in October 1780 and kills 22,000 people on the islands of Martinique, St. Eustatius, and Barbados.

1556 - China

A quake hits the Chinese province of Shansi on February 2, 1556. It kills 830,000 people.

1201 - Mediterranean

The deadliest earthquake in history kills approximately 1.1 million people in Egypt and Syria.

Sources: Discovery Channel, U.S.G.S., BBC


http://www.nbc10.com/news/4030540/detail.html

[DoYouEverWonder]

135. Gee I suppose Noah's flood

wasn't that bad either, since there weren't that many people on the planet in those days?

What is this a contest? My tragedy is bigger then your tragedy? If you haven't noticed a main levee has been breached and even the French Quarter is flooding now. 1000's of people were still stuck in their attics. If the water keeps coming and it is they don't' stand a chance. Let's see how biblical this is when it's over, we're not done yet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

136. This Is The Silliest Debate I Have Ever Engaged In

Nobody is saying this isn't a tragedy...


All hurricanes are disasters... That's why governments call areas devestated by hurricanes disaster areas....


Some folks are just saying the worst predictions of the doomsdayers didn't materialize.....

[DoYouEverWonder]

137. The worst predictions of the doomsdayers didn't materialize?

What I'm seeing from the reports on the news this is as bad if not worse then I expected.

The only reason why there isn't an even greater lose of life is because now a days we have much better ways to warn people to get out of the way of a hurricane and a with a hurricane you at least get a day or two to get ready. 80% of NO was able to evacuate. If this storm hit 50 years ago the loss of life would be as high as any of the disaster you've listed and at the rate things are going it may end up being pretty high anyway.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

138. Again

I still don't know what we are arguing....


It's a tragedy but a tragedy that was mitigated by advance notice....


Events larger than this happen with frequency in the Third World and nobody notices....

[friesianrider]

116. Funny isn't it?

My thoughts, too.

[rfrrfrrfr]

106. What do you not understand?

NO being wiped off the face of the earth and tens of thousands of dead was most certainly a possibility. It wasn't hype it wasn't exaggeration. It was a realistic possiblity. IF the hurricane came ashore directly at NO, AND IF it was still a cat 5 hurricane. Those two things didn't happen so no super catastophe just a regular normal hurrican castastrophe, but it sure the hell could have happened. And thats the point.

Now they got lucky it veered to the east and lessened in intesity and so we will have a few hundred deaths instead of tens of thousands. The OP posted a stupid comment that never even should have been voiced in the first place.

NO dodged a bullet today by a hairswidth, anyone who questions the seriousness of what could have happened needs a head examination.

[friesianrider]

115. No friggin' kidding

My thoughts precisely.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

129. You Are Twisting The Gentleman's Words

He was only remarking about the fact that some folks said the worst case possibility was a lead pipe cinch and took umbrage at those who suggested it might not be....


So I don't have to waste skinner's pixels , having lived through at least eight or so hurricanes I respect the devestation they can unleash.

[friesianrider]

142. You are misunderstanding me.

As did many others except for 3 or 4 people, but I'm not going to waste time explaining it yet again.

[Junkdrawer]

70. A 915 MB Hurricane is Cat 5 in my book...

just because the NHC uses wind speed (probably because most people don't understand barometric pressure) to categorize hurricanes, does mean that we didn't just get hit with one of the worst landfalls in US recorded history.

[Jacobin]

71. If it had been 10 miles further west, the models would have

been too accurate for words

[VADem11]

77. Simulations are unreliable

but they were close. At least they mostly evacuated the areas that were hit. Uh.. I think you are forgetting Camille. It was a category 5 and hit the gulf coast. Hurricanes are unreliable and they knew it could go either way. Remember the "cone" of the path?

[fishnfla]

79. I'm seeing a pretty scare shit now (WSDU)

and they cannot get any word out of Slidell or the Northshore

[Pobeka]

83. Next time you are dying of a bacterial infection, forget the antibiotics.

because it is after all only a model that predicts the antibiotics will kill the bacteria. There are a small fraction of people who still die. Who knows, you might be the one that the antibiotics will not work for you.


--
The point worth noting here, is there is a probability associated with every model prediction. Go to the NOAA page, and you will see they clearly put probabilities around the strike zones. Nowhere, at no time do they claim to know *exactly* the future path and strength of a storm. But they are able to give some very good information that can be used. You need to think of it like insurance -- there is some chance the storm may not strike where you are, but if you are in some portion of the strike zone it's better to get out and have your house standing afterwards, rather than stay and be killed.

[ScreamingMeemie]

86. Seems as though there are a bunch of bodies floating South of NO.

:shrug: Be ashamed.

[darkstar]

89. I've yet to hear a satisfactory explanation from the "models suck" crowd

why the Red Cross has already said this is the largest relief effort they've ever undertaken.

You think they're working from a faulty model as well? Or maybe they didn't get your note that this whole thing was overhyped?

[ScreamingMeemie]

91. I hope that's not directed at me....I don't think it's been overhyped

at all...I was pretty disgusted with the OP.

[Pobeka]

93. I think he's strongly agreeing with you.

Just forgot to turn on the :sarcasm: icon

[darkstar]

105. Yes , I am in agreements w/ Mrs. Grumpy

Sorry MG, if it seemed otherwise.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

92. Could you help me read what this computer model says...

The bottom two lines in the upper right hand corner.

and please link to where someone said computer models suck? They're great tools but they are not inclusive of all potential.

I know the weather patterns down here and I called for Biloxi to be hit rather than NO at 2:00 PM Sunday. No genius or psychic, I've just lived in bad weather areas in the SE for most of my life. Plus, I looked at all five published models available on Weather Underground and made my best guess.

On my best guess and if I was anywhere in the Gulf? I would have gotten the hell out of Dodge and told anyone I knew to do the same.

peace.

[darkstar]

99. OK, you got me

no one ever said they suck. I suck for putting that in quotes.

Now, from OP:

**the whole gigantic scare was due in large part because of a "model"*

We agree that size of this FEMA deployment, the Red Cross relief effort, and that this is the largest recovery effort Entergy has ever undertaken amount to more than a scare?

And you know what, I made the same call as you did yesterday at nearly the same time to my Dad who lives in N LA, i.e., that we'd be hearing a lot about Biloxi today.

So I know where you are coming from. The models aren't perfect

I haven't read the entire thread, I'll admit, so if I tarred you w/ a large brush I'm sorry. I work in Baton Rouge, coincidentaly, on all-hazards emergency management, FEMA compliance issues, EOC training, table-top execises, etc. People that think what just happened was a giant scare are simply wrong. That's the one thing I'm saying.

And I've read you before and I know you to be a peacable guy, so please take this the right way, but are you implying that the "don't use for planning" language that on these maps is directed at and adhered to by EM folks at the state, fed, and local level? That is simply not the case. Tools yes, not certainties, but they are indeed used for planning. Planners pore over them days out, determining initial staging then pre-staging of provisions and people and bucket trucks and medical personel so on down the line. There's a reason FEMA placed Drs and nurses from MO and MN in Baton Rouge on Satuday vs Lafayette, a mere fifty miles due east, and it wasn't based upon the sort of educated guesswork that you and I did on the Biloxi thing.


Peace to you, too, TYJ. I've always have loved your nic by the way.

:toast:

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

100. No.... The models are great and useful tools....

My main gripe was with those calling for New Orleans to be 100% destroyed and calling out that there were going to be tens of thousands of deaths.

There was a lot of fear mongering going on here yeasterday that IMHO, was just making a bad situation worse.


I am VERY glad that our emergency groups behaved as they did. The media playing the worst case scenario over and over again... That's another story.

I'm sitting under Katrina's last elements as I type this so I'll post this before the power goes out again.

:toast:

(& I loved the CSN&Y song Dark Star)

[Rainscents]

113. Andew was originally CAT4... It wasn't until two years later, they

upgraded to CAT 5... I can bet you, this was CAT 5... NOT CAT 4!

[Media_Lies_Daily]

119. I agree 100%! See my post #108.

[Junkdrawer]

140. Yep - See post #70 n/t

[Hissyspit]

123. This is a major disaster. The extent of it is not yet clear.

[rman]

126. There will be more hurricanes in the future...

Did the simulation predict that this hurricane in particular would destroy NO? Or did the simulation show that such a hurricane could destroy NO if certain conditions were met, such as location of landfall?

It is in part thanks to simulations that people now have advanced warning of hurricanes. If this hurricane would have taken place 100 years ago, many thousands would have lost their lives.

[DoYouEverWonder]

128. If you haven't heard

There's been a 2 block long breach of the 17th Street Levee and water is now pouring into New Orleans. They may have to evacuate Tulane Hospital soon.

Now what did you say about the models beginning wrong and NO not being destroyed?

[trumad]

132. exactly

http://www.nola.com/weblogs/print.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_Times-Picayune/archives/print074994.html

[Bridget Burke]

141. Please read some of the "recorded history"

Camille was Force 5 when it hit the Gulf Coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#camille

The Galveston Storm of 1900 was probably only Force 4. But 8000 people died--because there was no warning. Evacuation would have been a problem, anyway--there were (& are) only so many routes off the Island.

Hurricane watching has improved immensely in a century--so what if it's not 100% accurate. The "worst case" scenario many mentioned was the subject of a NOVA show earlier this year--it could have been much worse in New Orleans.

Try telling the people of Louisiana & Mississippi that it was all a "whole gigantic scare."

[johnaries]

144. In case you haven't been paying attention, the predictions came true.

Even though the predictions were about a CAT 5 hitting head-on and Katruna was a CAT 4 and the eyewall missed NO, what they predicted was that the Lake Ponchartrain levee would be breached and the lake would "fill the bowl" that NO is in.

The levee was breached last night. The bowl is filling, just slower that they expected. If the city had not been evacuated, thousands would be dead.

[HadItUpToHere]

146. yeah- they missed it by more than 20 miles-

time to scrap all that high-tech junk, and just go back to looking at the horizon for our forcasts. :eyes:

[Shakespeare]

147. Gee, the OP is awfully quiet now.

No apology? No admitting how wrong (and premature) your smugness was?

:eyes: