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Let's say that Gray Davis does lose the Recall election. Right now 42% favor keeping him in office according to the LA Times Poll. Let's say by election day he manages to get 45% of the state voters, a substantial minority, to say NO to the recall. Doesn't it make sence then that on the second ballot that the Democrat should be favored?
I guess some of that 45% would not even vote on the Second ballot, heck, Diane Feinstein herself said she is not voting on the second ballot. But I think most will. Would enough people who voted NO on recalling Davis actually then vote for a Republican on the second ballot to replace him? does that make sence?
Let's say that of the 45% that vote No on the recall, Bustamante gets 80% of the that vote or 36%, McLintock continues to hold the hard right wing vote and gets about 18%. Various other candidates on the ballot get about 4-5 percent. This leaves Arnold with a small victory of approximatly 41% of the vote.
The only way Cruz Bustamante can win on the second ballot under those circumstances is to get at least 90% of the people who vote NO on the recall to vote for him or 40% and hope that McLintock actually stays in the race and the hard right wing votes for him in heavy numbers.
Right now these are the groups that we expect to be strongly for Bustamante according to the LA Times Poll:
Latinos, but even among them he is only pulling 54% to 27% for Arnold. He needs to get this up to at least 60-65 percent with a heavy turnout.
African Americans, stronger than Latinos for Bustamante and Davis.
Jewish voters--by over 70% favor Davis and Bustamante
San Francisco Bay Area--Strongly against recall and for Cruz.
Not on this list is Organized Labor--according to LA Times poll, 53% of union members favor the recall. and LA County--usually dependably Democratic now 54% of LA county residents favor recall.
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