Are These Hurricanes Tied Into Global Warming?

[Yavin4]

Is there scientific evidence to back this assumption up? And, no, I don't accept "Intelligent Design" arguments. I'm not the Kansas school board.

[shoelace414]

1. the gulf of Mexico water is warmer

warmer water makes worse hurricanes

[Deep13]

8. It adds kinetic energy to the storm.

[Kolesar]

9. World ocean temps are about 1 degree higher now

That is what I recall. I think it was centigrade, which means the problem is 80% worse! :scared:

[G_j]

2. not really

too hard to prove, but it is certainly possible.

[phantom power]

3. Yes, hurricane intensity is increased by global warming.

There's a recent MIT study about it. Anybody who thinks Katrina was a fluke, should take a peek at the Gulf surface temperatures. Hurricanes are powered by heat energy from the oceans.

[Yavin4]

4. Can you Link This Study?

Thanks.

[phantom power]

10. Here's one link

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2005/08/01/57888.htm

If you google something like "MIT study hurricanes warming", there are plenty of others.

[Zynx]

5. Warmer waters= Stronger Hurricanes

[Deep13]

6. probably

I heard the Earth was a degree or two Celsius warmer than 100 years ago. Heat is kenetic energy of molecules. How much energy does it take to elevate a pound of water (about a pint) two deg. Celsius? Not much. Multiply that energy by the weight of Earth's atmosphere. That is an awful lot of kinetic energy. It has to manifest itself somehow, and violent weather was the way science has predicted it will show.

[hatrack]

7. They are certainly consistent with models of a warmer climate

However, it's extremely difficult to prove that a single point event was caused by an overall trend.

Now, if we see something like a 850-millibar storm (God forbid, given that Katrina at its strongest was about 902), then I would give a definite yes.

The strongest storm ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere was Gilbert, which clocked in at 889 millibars. Under current conditions, the physics of hurricanes don't let them get much stronger. However, current conditions are likely to change.

[Botany]

11. Katrini crossed FL as a class 1 hurricane it hit the warmer waters

of the gulf of Mexico and picked up energy to become a class 5.

The Gulf has become warmer in the last 10 years.

[jobycom]

12. Who knows? Hurricanes go in cycles, world temperatures go in cycles

People are not taught history worth a damn in schools. One of the many factors in the collapse of the Roman Empire in Europe was a sudden cooling of temperatures that killed agriculture in the region. The history of the Middle Ages rises and falls with the temperature trends. I studied a town in the Italian Alps foothills that over the centuries went from complaining about glaciers to complaining about the river never freezing anymore. You can track this rises and falls of temperatures in peat moss bogs, and through other archeological methods as well as through historical documents.

Likewise there have been cycles in hurricanes. Some years have been bad, some have been very quiet. There have been stronger storms than this one, and there are hints of storms this massive before good records were kept. The size of this one was suprising, though, and might indicate something significant.

So who knows? Global warming is happening. Whether it is caused by us or by the natural centuries-long fluctuations in temperatures is hard to tell. My own suspicion is it's a bit of both. The earth is heating up just as our impact on the environment is reducing the natural cooling effect on the earth. But whether that made Katrina a stronger hurricane is probably not answerable. Camille hit before talk of global warming, as did the 1935 and the 1900 hurricanes. Monster storms are going to hit us. Everyone on the Coast lived with that knowledge in the back of their minds. I don't know of a single long-time Coast resident who didn't look at all the construction and wonder when the next huricane would wipe it out.

Hurricanes are expected, in other words. Whether global warming had anything to do with making this one happen, I don't know. It would have happened sometime, sooner or later, no matter.

Global warming has more long-term consequences than these fluctuations in the weather. The bigger problem is the long-term loss of farm land and the rising of the oceans. This causes a lot of problems, from shifting climactic zones, to new diseases, to lost crops, to lots of other stuff. That's the bigger reason to pay attention to it. Even if it's just a natural cycle, knowing it is happening helps to prepare for it.

man, I'm in a wordy mood today. Sorry.

[tex-wyo-dem]

13. Here's a noaa link regarding this...

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html

As mentioned, the atmospheric system and the effects of global warming on the system is an extremely complex question, but the general consensus is that increased ocean temperatures will likely create more intense storms over the next century.

[FloridaPat]

14. He only looked at the last 30 years. Here's a breakdown of storms

hitting Florida:

1920-1940 - 6 hurricanes
1940-1960 - 6 hurricanes
1960-2003 - 2
2004 - 4


He has to go way back and they probably don't have water temperatures from the 1920's. But I think the fact that icebergs are melting is a good indication water temp is rising.

It has been a miserable summer here in Florida. I usually only complain a couple of days but this summer I've been complaining constantly. Mid to high 90's all the time since May, which I think is unusual.

[Pathwalker]

15. Only on the Weather Channel.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Hate When Politics And Science Intersect....

I think the fact that we are populating hurricane prone areas is what is increasing the danger...

[MadeinOhio]

17. Yes, the gulf of mexico waters are much warmer..

The icecaps in certain areas are melting. People didn't want to accept the scientists findings in the movie "Day After Tomorrow" until it was already becoming too late.

But he was correct, the accelerated warming temperatures caused storms of unprecedented violence. The waters did get much warmer.....I know since my family member has done a study on the temperature change.