IMPORTANT: official forecasts predicted what happened 3+ days earlier

[onenote]

This is information that needs to be spread widely. Yes, Katrina was only a Cat One storm when it hit eastern FL Thursday evening, but even before it hit, the Hurricane Center was stating that the storm likely would strengthen and that there were computer models showing it hitting between Grand Isle and Mobile ...exactly what happened. Unfortunately, other models showing a landfall in the FL panhandle were viewed as more reliable. But by Friday, the forecasters were moving the prediction towards the west and by 11 PM Friday night, this was what the forecasters were saying: "MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI."

That was Friday night people. Yet no mandatory evacuation order was given until Sunday and virtually no preparations seem to have been made for getting necessary supplies to the area.

This was a major fuck up. And its all recorded at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.015.shtml?

onenote

[Mass]

1. There were models describing exactly what was going to happen in NO since

at least 1998.

How is it possible that there were no evacuation plan other than ask people to take their own cars and leave.

How is it possible that the minute the storm stopped and the water started invading the town, the buses were not there to evacuate those who were still in NO.

[onenote]

2. kick

[Eloriel]

3. NOMINATED -- Yes, this is CRITICALLY Important

and it's even worse than I'd remembered it (and posted) -- I had said that at least 24 hours before Nagin gave the mandatory evac orders we knew it was going to NO.

This has been nothing but one devastating error in judgment after another.

Thanks so much for digging this up.

[Journeyman]

Here's an article from 11/2004 that accurately foretells . . .

exactly what has happened to New Orleans. I believe the article actually predates last November, but was only then posted to this website. . .

http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/nov04/nov04c.html

Disasters Waiting to Happen . . . Sixth in a Series

What if Hurricane Ivan Had Not Missed New Orleans?

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Author’s Note: This column was originally intended to be the final disaster in the “Disasters Waiting to Happen” series. As I was developing the hypothetical situation depicting a devastating hurricane striking New Orleans, Louisiana, the disaster waiting to happen threatened to become a reality: Hurricane Ivan, a category 4 hurricane (with 140 mph winds) fluctuating to a category 5 (up to 155 mph winds), was slowly moving directly toward New Orleans. Forecasters were predicting a one-in-four chance that Ivan would remain on this direct path and would be an “extreme storm” at landfall. In reality, the storm veered to the north and made landfall east of Mobile Bay, Alabama, causing devastation and destruction well into the central Gulf shoreline and throughout the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic states.

What if Ivan Had Hit New Orleans?

New Orleans was spared, this time, but had it not been, Hurricane Ivan would have:

* Pushed a 17-foot storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain;

* Caused the levees between the lake and the city to overtop and fill the city “bowl” with water from lake levee to river levee, in some places as deep as 20 feet;

* Flooded the north shore suburbs of Lake Pontchartrain with waters pushing as much as seven miles inland; and

* Inundated inhabited areas south of the Mississippi River.

Up to 80 percent of the structures in these flooded areas would have been severely damaged from wind and water. The potential for such extensive flooding and the resulting damage is the result of a levee system that is unable to keep up with the increasing flood threats from a rapidly eroding coastline and thus unable to protect the ever-subsiding landscape.


(more. . . much more)

[riverwalker]

4. Chertoff should be arrested

for criminal manslaughter. He had the information. He chose NOT to act. He CHOSE to abandon the people of NOLA to die. This is criminal negligence.

Definition of his responsibilities frome Dept Of Homeland Security website:
Preparing America

In the event of a terrorist attack, natural disaster or other large-scale emergency, the Department of Homeland Security will assume primary responsibility on March 1st for ensuring that emergency response professionals are prepared for any situation. This will entail providing a coordinated, comprehensive federal response to any large-scale crisis and mounting a swift and effective recovery effort. The new Department will also prioritize the important issue of citizen preparedness. Educating America's families on how best to prepare their homes for a disaster and tips for citizens on how to respond in a crisis will be given special attention at DHS.


NOTE AGAIN: "assume primary responsibility on March 1st for ensuring that emergency response professionals are prepared for any situation. This will entail providing a coordinated, comprehensive federal response to any large-scale crisis and mounting a swift and effective recovery effort."

[shance]

5. If other DUers will, please put other links to articles/information here.

We can better have the information in one place.

Thanks.

[Jacobin]

6. Bush got on TV and told everyone to leave New Orleans

prior to the storm hitting land. He supported the mandatory evacuation because of the extreme danger.

NOW, he claims no one knew it was going to be bad?

Gimme a fucking break.

I don't EVEN want to hear that shit