Question about other refugees and jobs

[Ravenseye]

We're all rightly focused right now on the people who aren't getting evacuated, food or water, or adequate shelter.

I was thinking last night though, how would this have affected my family and our friends if we had lived in NoLA. What would have happened to us? We would have had a couple days to be ready for it, and when they ordered the evacuation we would have loaded the most important things in our car (like wedding photos and family heirlombs) and headed off for a relatives out of town.

Now what?

What about a young family. A child less than a year old, both working decent jobs with their own house and two cars. They both work for a company in NoLA, one in Marketing, the other in IT.

What's happening? Are those companies gone essentially? I mean all their papers and data on the computers are inaccessable. Many of their clients are probably gone too.

What about this young family now staying in Kansas City with family. Will they keep getting paid? Will they have to try and go find new jobs in new places? When New Orleans is reborn will there be anyone able to move back?

Like I said, the biggest concern is getting everyone to safety, but after that....what's going to happen to everyone?

[Pacifist Patriot]

1. I think those are questions on everyone's minds.

I know some personal stories and the answers are all different. I know someone whose company is continuing to pay everyone. I know another country that has shifted operations and placed their employees at other facilities. I know some people that have not been able to contact their employers and are not getting any money. I know some people who have already been told their jobs are gone. We'll know more as time goes on.

I do know that Texans and Floridians (and indeed all Americans) have risen to the occasion admirably. Texas and Florida are admitting affected school children into their classrooms (from K-college). Shelters are doing everything they can to supply people who left before the storm and no cannot return.

I live well away from NOLA and know of a program starting in my county to advertise job openings at Texas shelters from companies agreeing to pay relocation costs.

This is going to take a long time to sort out.

[Ravenseye]

3. I just don't know how I'd feel if I were one of them

Helpless maybe? Sitting in my wife's parent's house watching television and not sure what to do. Maybe going on and starting to look for another job already somewhere else.

A million people though. Isn't that what we're essentially talking about? A million people who'll need new jobs and new homes? The economy just doesn't have those jobs right now do they? Man it's just terrifying.

[Pacifist Patriot]

4. Exactly.

[Cobalt Violet]

2. I don't know.

I imagine that many lower middle class people are in a bind right now. They managed to get out but have lost everything. Their credit cards are max out from hotels and eat out 3 meals a day. They can't go anywhere. There jobs no longer exist. I don't what will happen to these people.

[Ravenseye]

5. I've already heard stories of this

People who drove out and spent a week in a hotel, now running out of money and credit and are getting back in their cars with no way to buy gas, no money to buy food, and nowhere to go.

People being turned away from the Astrodome because they had the good fortune to hitch a ride out of town.

More needs to be done.

[Cobalt Violet]

6. Of the 400,000 that managed to evacuate...

I can imagine that very, very few have the means to just set up somewhere else and start all over.

[MostlyLurks]

7. NOLA Will Never Be The Same

I was talking about this sort of stuff with my wife last night.

Most estimates say about 4 months to clean the city up, and that was before it started to get really bad. And that's just the timetable to get the city back to the point where people can come back in. It does nothing to address infrastructure, etc. Add to that timetable the fact that many buildings will be unusable, so they'll have to be gutted and rebuilt, or possibly 'dozed and built from the ground up. if we're looking at a basic timetable to get to a point where businesses can actually start to re-enter the area, I think 6 months is an (unbelievably) optimistic estimate. My guess would be a year to 18 months before we really see a surge in business restarts in NOLA.

Take a look at what happened when the WTC was demolished. The businesses that were affected moved to other offices as soon as they could. The same will happen here: any company with the means to do so will move to some other metro area, possibly Baton Rouge or maybe even further away. Or they'll consolidate a prior NOLA branch into another somewhere nearby.

So the net effect, I think, is that a lot of the working class people who used to live in NOLA will never come back because they're going to have to establish a life for themselves elsewhere and there will be no reason to come back once NOLA gets back on its feet. Either they'll find new jobs outside the area, or their jobs will move to another city. In either case, NOLA is essentially an employment dead zone for at least a few months, unless you work in construction or some other industry that can work to restore the city. Certainly the white collar jobs that fuel the middle class, and the tourism-related jobs that often keep the poor afloat will be scarce until the water's gone, at least.

I saw an interview with a guy on CNN yesterday who said as much, something to the effect of "My house is gone, I have no job to report to and I have to get my kids into school soon. Basically, I'm just going to pick a city and go there." That's how a lot of the middle- and working-class people are going to HAVE to deal with it - there won't be a choice because they have to go where they can survive.

The poor, working or not, will be in similar straits: they can't go back to NOLA for the foreseeable future so they will have to try to establish a life in a new city. And, since they are poor, they may have a very hard time returning to NOLA once it is reopened.

I think there's a very real chance that in 50 years, NOLA may be just another mid-size city like Akron, OH.

Mostly

[Ravenseye]

8. It'll take a long time

I know that if it were me I'd probably be posting my resume and hitting up people around the country looking for jobs. Go wherever there is work and make a new home.

I think your longer estimates are probably more accurate. First they have to fix the levees, then they have to drain the city, then they have to flush the water systems, then they have to decontaminate the whole place, bulldoze and rebuild, etc.

I just don't see many big companies going back after this. There won't be the jobs. I'd imagine much of the city simply won't be rebuilt and eventually it'll be the french quarter and a few other areas for mardi gras, but like you said....otherwise a non-city.

as a separate thought...I wonder what the Saints are going to do this year.

[MostlyLurks]

9. Re: The Saints

Last I heard, they were going to practice in San Antonio, but the locale for games had yet to be determined. They're currently floating the idea that they'll play in Baton Rouge at LSU's stadium, which makes sense from a standpoint of locality (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2149071).

ESPN also reports that the NBA has started to prepare its clubs for the idea that the Hornets may relocate for the entire year - they've already modved their training camp to the Air Force Academy in Co Springs (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2149549).So they're taking the long view - with good reason, I think - that the city will be unable to sustain a basketball team throughout the upcoming 05-06 season. That right there says something about the timetable.

I'm starting to think that the calls to "bulldoze" New Orleans may not be necessary - it may happen through attrition. Astounding to even think about an iconic city like New Orleans changing so radically and completely in such a short period of time.

Mostly