5 predictions for the 2004 Democratic Primaries.

[TakebackAmerica]

1. Bob Graham drops out on Friday.

Prediction 1. Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton drop out soon afterward.

Prediction. 2. Dennis Kucinch and Joe Lieberman drop out after the first two primaries.

Prediction 3. Dick Gephardt drops out or his candidacy dies if he loses Iowa.

Prediction 4. John Kerry drops out or his candidacy dies if he loses
New Hampshire.

Prediction 5. John Edwards drops out or his candidacy dies if he loses South Carolina.

My Spin: The Wesley Clark and Howard Dean battle it out until the Convention. There are two scenarios on where things will go from here. The first is that A. Clark could stumble.{Like the way he did coming out of the gate] B. Primary voters revel in Dean's fiery rhetoric.

The second is that A. Dean stumbles {Past coes back to haunt him} or that B. Democrats want a visionary and a leader for the future and are sick of the rhetoric.
Prediction: Toss Up.

My hope is a Clark/Dean ticket.
Clark = Brilliant visionary.
Dean = Powerful speaker, strong leader and of course imagine his debate with Dick Cheney. :evilgrin:

[Padraig18]

1. I essentially agree

I'm still not sure that the Veep candidate won't be a bright, young senator like Edwards, or a liberal Senator with SOLID anti-war credentials, like Dick Durbin.

[TakebackAmerica]

2. Intresting.

I like edwards for VP too.
Since he has given up his senate seat he has nothing to lose by being VP. I would like to keep Durbin in the Senate because he's doing such a good job their.

[Padraig18]

10. I agree

Dick Durbin is an awesome voice in the Senate! I am PROUD to call him my Senator! :thumbsup:

[sleipnir]

19. I think that was Edwards' play all along!!!

Get enough attention, draw a couple of eyes and hope to high heaven for a Veep nod from either Dean or Clark.

[dolstein]

3. My thoughts

First, Lieberman will stick around at least until February 3rd, when several states (including Arizona, Oklahom and South Carolina) will be holding primaries.

Second, if Gephardt loses Iowa badly, he's probably toast. But if he finishes a close second, he might stick around until at least the Michigan primary.

Third, Edwards and Kerry will both have enough money to stick around until the first Tuesday in March. And Edwards is likely to stick around until at least the second Tuesday in March, when several Southern states hold primaries.

Fourth, Dean is in it for the long haul.

Fifth, I haven't a clue as to how well or badly Clark is going to do.

[catforclark2004]

4. My hopes as well....

Although I believe that Dean has to resist taking the right wing bait and smearing Clark with it. So far I have heard the "He's a Republican since 25 days ago"; "He's a mole for either the DLC or the PNAC"......at least 500 times in the DU. When I go to the Clark blog....I don't see any Dean bashing at all. There are trolls, either Repugs or Dem supporting other candidates coming in to bait...but the Clark group seem to stay above the Fray. I believe that in this day of Partisan Politics, it may be the best approach.....I have a suspicion that many are tired of fighting amongs themselves while Bush and the Media do essentially what they like.

Today, I saw Tucker Carlson on Crossfire talking nice of Dean and calling him the primary winner......so we know what that means. Also it is my understanding that Rush actually comes to DU to find out what is going on from the Democratic perspective to use in the strategy to have the Right wing influence the elections.

I may sound paranoid, but I can assure you that I do believe that it is true.

[stickdog]

15. Neo-Clark is a fraud. He will be quickly exposed as such and

his DLcandidacy will go down in flames.

WE ARE AWAKE, FRIGHTENED PARTY ELITISTS!

DON'T CAMPAIGN CONSULT US LIKE WE WERE FUCKING SHEEP!

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Just one thing

I do not think we will see that debate
with Chenney.

I think Chenney is cooked.

Now bush and Clark or Dean would be quite the spectacle

[poskonig]

6. Analysis:

First, one cannot be a visionary without a vision. Let us wait until Clark *details* what his "vision" is.

Secondly, Dean is a crummy VP choice strategically because in that slot he brings none of his strengths (inspiring voters, fundraising, organization) and all of his soft spots (civil unions, being from a small state electorally, etc.) If Clark wins, I hope we have enough common sense to pick a Graham, Edwards, or Landrieu, et cetera.

Since Gephardt may do well in Missouri, Michigan, South Carolina, and Oklahoma, I'm not certain he will drop out after Iowa. I'd put a date of Feb 3rd or 7th for Geppy if he doesn't win Iowa.

With Kerry, it depends how much money he wants to spend. If he comes close in NH, he may have enough dough to duke it out on February 3rd, like Gephardt.

Sharpton is trying to blackmail the DNC for a spot at the convention; hence, he is in this until the end.

I have no clue what is motivating Moseley-Braun, and I agree about John Edwards.

[RichM]

7. Why do you use a word like "blackmail" about Sharpton?

Why, exactly, shouldn't he have a spot at the convention? Isn't he a prominent leader of the black community? Isn't that an important (not to mention electorally essential) constituency of the Dem Party?

What is it that makes his campaign "blackmail," but all the other (white) corporate stooges something of a higher moral order? Has he articulated a single position yet in the campaign that you have a serious problem with?

Just curious.

[TomNickell]

8. Will anybody have a majority?

Ok.
With the primaries so closely spaced, and several candidates likely sticking around much of the way, will anybody come out with a clear majority?

Will there be an open convention? Vote trading? Deals made?

[Yupster]

9. My prediction

If Clark wins the nomination, he will select someone with lots of Washington elected experience since he's had none. Therefore, Dean would not be a VP choice for Clark.

[stickdog]

16. Clark will choose Zell Miller as his running mate.

When he's run out of the Democratic Party on a rail, that is.

[gulliver]

11. OK, I'll try.

Graham drops out first. His supporters go half Clark, half Dean.

All of the others last through New Hampshire and Iowa. Then all but Clark and Dean are gone. The lion's share of the supporters of the other candidates go Clark. Clark is nominated and picks Edwards as his running mate.

Bush and Cheney are humiliated, losing in a record breaking landslide. The world heaves a sigh of relief and begins to recover starting in January 2005.

[stickdog]

17. And the world laughs tragically as America meets the new boss.

Same as the old boss.

[jonoboy]

12. I hope

your scenario comes to be. As a non-American I can tell you this looks like an ideal team from the outside, no matter what reservations Democrats have about Clark.
Dean seems very impressive, and yes a HUGE sigh of relief in the southern hemisphere.

[quinnox]

13. The combination

Dean/Clark or Clark/Dean is fantasy, although popular on internet political sites. My prediction: neither ticket will happen.

[stickdog]

18. You are correct. You can't team real with neo. (NT)

[stickdog]

14. My prediction: Neo-Clark is run out of the Democratic Party on a rail.

The battle will be between Dean, Kerry and possibly Edwards.

[sleipnir]

20. Good predictions

I think you have it right, or close to it.

Kerry and Gephart will go until their money runs out or they are mathematically elimnated from the nod.

Though the K-man and Lieberman will probably stick around until Super Tuesday JR (AZ, DE, MO, OK and SC primaries)

Kerry, Gephart, and Lieberman can't neglet their elected duties too much which will also press on them to drop out. Too much to do in Washington, not enough time to campaign.

Clark and Dean will come to the wire, but I think they may propose a unity ticket, with the winner giving the other the Veep spot (if it doesn't get ugly in the Primarys, which I fear it will.)

[Adjoran]

21. Graham has to decide

Florida is one of the states where you cannot run for two offices at the same time, so if he has any idea of keeping his Senate seat, he needs to get out of the Presidential race.

Dean is obviously a serious contender, with more money and leading in the polls. His biggest problem is the expectations game. Once you win the "frontrunner" laurel, you have to perform. He needs a good second in Iowa - a win would be a big boost - and to finish at least second in NH, although it would help him immensely to beat Kerry in their mutual backyard. He may not run as strongly in states like Delaware, South Carolina, and Arizona, which follow NH as early tests, and will have to fight the inevitable media portrait of a "campaign at the crossroads" before heading to states where he runs better. A win in any of those second-tier events would be another jewel in his crown, though.

Kerry has not had a good time of it this summer. First, his putative status as frontrunner was usurped by the Dean boom. Then his key advantage as military hero was suddenly outranked by Clark. As one old hand also put it, "Nobody ever 'reorganizes' or 'relaunches' a campaign that is going well."

Kerry must win NH, or finish a very close second. Then he must win another state quickly to reestablish his star power.

Lieberman may run fourth in neighbor NH, not a bright start. But he has some support in SC and has organized strongly in AZ, planning that one or both will be his breakthrough state to get back on the pundits' radar. If he fails in both, he will get out.

Gephardt is trying desperately to elevate his candidacy to the "first tier" as well, although he usually polls among the leaders, he never seems to be THE leader. He's been organizing in neighboring Iowa for 16 years now, and needs at least a strong second there. But he has a lot of dependable labor support in South Carolina, and could win Michigan if he can stay in the race that long. He needs an unexpected good finish early to do it.

Edwards has a clear mission: he has to show well in SC, and hope the other results are very mixed so that uncomitted and loosely committed voters start looking for a new candidate. He's a very long shot at best, although he could be a viable Veep candidate in some scenarios. IMO he should have paid more attention to constituent service so he could earn reelection, and tried again in '08 or '12 or '16, but I understand he is taking a huge pay cut in politics.

Clark is getting in very late in terms of organization. Bill Clinton didn't start until October of 1991, but the primary season was longer then, and the field smaller. Clark needs a breakthrough early to keep his mystique alive and keep the donations flowing in. He can probably write off Iowa, as almost every political volunteer is already working for somebody else. But a third or strong fourth in NH would not diminish him, since the others have such a head start, and then a win in SC or AZ or strong seconds in both would keep his momentum going.

Graham will get out to run for reelection to the Senate. Was Graham in?

Kucinich and Moseley-Braun will stay in as long as they can raise enough money to run niche campaigns. One high state party operative told me that Moseley-Braun had been convinced to run so that Sharpton wouldn't be the only "black" candidate, and that she will get a convention speech instead of Al if she stays in as long as he does. Al's checkered past is too much red meat for the repubs, and given the modern formula of highly scripted, offend-no-one-in-middle-America
conventions, if he gets a speech it will be at 3 a.m. EDT.