Are we returning back to the 50/50 split in 2000?

[jiacinto]

An open question.

[UTUSN]

1. 50-50 Is Only of Those Who VOTE

If every eligible voter voted, there would hardly be any Repukes in office.

What is the percentage of actual voters?

[bpilgrim]

2. lol

we are way beyond that :bounce:

peace

[Wcross]

3. Not if

Not if the canidate focuses on the economy and Iraq. All other issues should be downplayed. Stay on target!

[jenk]

4. it wasn't even 50/50

more like 52-48 in favor of liberals

[Clete]

5. Explain.

I thought that the 50/50 split was because of the moderates in the party. I heard a Democratic activist say yesterday that he likes Dennis Kucinich but thinks he should vote for Lieberman because he has a better chance of beating Bush. I think that we should vote for the person who will make a positive change, not the candidate who is closest to the idiot in charge. I mean that is what is wrong, I think.

[Brucey]

6. That is what a 2 party system will naturally evolve to.

I think we're there.

[RandomUser]

19. Good point

You're right. A two-party system will naturally gravitate to 50/50, no matter how far left or far right, dynamics will force a 50/50 distribution. If one party gains too high an advantage, the other party will compensate. The only other option is if one party completely destroys the other (and we're lightyears away from that). In that case, there will be one party left, and that party will then split in two.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

7. Note: I'm sticking my neck out, here.

In my area, there are a lot of people that have, and for a long time, voted straight repuke. That, I am happy to announce, is an artifact of the past. Many, many of these people are openly announcing their disgust with the repukes, their games, their lies and their governance. They openly admit to negative regard for Chimpy and The Maladministration.

Screw with their futures and their children's futures, and offer nothing but doctrinaire pablum in return, and the people slowly start to get it. They are getting it, too.

On edit, what I forgot to say: A lot of repukes are gonna go down in the elections, as I see it now.

[gulliver]

8. The fifty-fifty split is a process in action.

That's my pet theory. I believe there is a natural progressive/liberal lean of perhaps 10% net, even now when the country is more "conservative" than usual. The 10% natural advantage of progressives (which I would argue is a deserved advantage) is counterbalanced by money and lies, two things the GOP has a lot of.

Why fifty-fifty? The more they are losing, the more the GOP owners lie and spend money. The closer it gets to fifty-fifty, the less incentive to lie and spend. They still have to lie and spend to maintain the balance, but they only spend just enough to maintain it.

Bush outspent Gore by about 2 to 1 in the 2000 election. If Bush had outspent Gore 3 to 1, Bush would have won. But the GOP gets stingier the closer to victory they get.

It's a dynamic process. Just look at the money variable.

[Yupster]

9. Comparative History

Most of us have heard of the "stolen election" of 1876 where Tilden beat Hayes by a vote of 51 % to 48 %, but a controversial decision gave the electoral votes of three southern states to Hayes giving him a one electoral vote victory. Sounds pretty familiar right.

Anyway, check out the elections that followed that one.

1880 Garfield (R) beats Hancock (D) (the federal corps commander good guy in Gods and Generals) 48.27 % - 48.25 %.

1884 Cleveland (D) beats Blaine (R) 48.50 % - 48.25 %.

1888 Cleveland (D) beats Harrison (R) 48.62 % - 47.82 % but Harrison wins the electoral vote pretty handily 233-168.

I hope we're not entering a new political phase like 100 years ago.

[Brucey]

16. Natural progression...

Each party takes positions and creates images to grab certain demographic groups. Pro-life used to be a Democratic issue, but is now repug. Catholics used to go almost completely Dem, but now lean toward repug. Reagan grabbed a bunch of union members by seeming tough. Each party grabs, and eventually it evens out. One party can't please everybody, or even 60% because the other party is also grabbing. Over time, you get closer and closer to 50/50.

[hedgetrimmer]

10. if the du vote is any indication.... we have less than 1% voting

that means on a situation like this... the super-minority will tell everyone else they have to play the way we say or else.....

sounds like the voting thing to me.....

[nwstrn]

11. Yes, I think it will be a close election

This board convinces me that even though Bush has a terrible record, it will be very difficult to get rid of him, and if we do, the vote will be close. Even here at the "Democratic" Underground, there are many posters who still can't seem to grasp that there are real differences between the parties. Although virtually everyone despises Bush, many espouse such hatred for various Democratic candidates that I can't see them saying at the end of the primary--it's time to forget about the negative attacks and rally around the Democratic nominee. I can foresee many of the "Democrats" here stating after the primary that while they hate and despise Bush, the Democratic candidate (fill in the blank) is "just as bad" and "won't get my vote." That's exactly what the Republicans want in this election; they can't run on Bush's record, so the only hope is to suppress voter turnout. None of the Democratic candidates are perfect; all are better than Bush.

[newyawker99]

13. Hi nwstrn!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[ShimokitaJer]

12. I think it should swing well back toward the Dems

It's not just the traditional Republican voters who are turning against Bush. Even if we only get back the 20% of Democrats who voted for Bush in 2000, we'll take the election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. My Crystal Ball Says

Too Early To Tell....

Anything can happen in thirteen months.....

This election will turn on:

the economy

and

Bush's handling of the Iraq War and the War On Terrorism...

Ayybody who's predicting a landslide for either side is living in a world of his or her own construct....

[Iverson]

15. not on the Supreme Court

Also not in the ownership of voting machines.

[CatWoman]

17. yes, but

do they have feelings?? :shrug:

[He loved Big Brother]

18. When *everybody* votes-

Democrats win!

[Brian Sweat]

20. Over the next 20 to 30 years, the Republican party will

steadily lose ground. The electorate in this country a gradually evolving in a manner that will create electoral math problems for the Republicans. The problem for the Republicans is that they will not be able to make gradual changes that will allow them to remain even with the Democrats. The GOP will have to make radical changes and until they found a working combination, they will suffer on election day.

[Beetwasher]

21. In 2000 Many "Swing" Voters Held their Noses and Voted for Bush

Those people will not do so again and they are a sizeable percentage. It will not be as close this time around. He's got a track record now of sever incompetence and it's becoming apparent. That's not to say he won't "win" through some other means, but he won't come as close to 50% like he did last time.