New Orleans may take another hit this week:

[Minstrel Boy]

This Java simulation shows a Tropical Storm in the Gulf projected to hit NO with force of Cat 3 and 4 winds Sept 9:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005090500-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Seeking Serenity]

1. Can someone interpret that for a dullard like me?

n/t

[expatriot]

4. it shows a cat 3 storm firing up from almost nothing over Florida and then

rolling west just off the gulf coast and then slamming into the bayou.

i have never seen anything like it, i am also a laymen but i thought the impetus for hurricanes formed off of west africa, not florida.

[ClintonTyree]

42. Katrina was a tropical storm of Florida's Atlantic coast,,,,,,,,,

it intensified just before landfall in Florida to a CAT 1 Hurricane, after crossing Florida it intensified once again in the 90 degree waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Everything we thought we knew about Hurricanes is being re-written. Global Warming? Nahhhh, flawed science! Right? :shrug:

[Walt Starr]

6. Tropical Wave off Atlantic Coast is set to become TS Nate

Computer models show it moving across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf, developing into a CAt 3 or 4 urricane and striking in the same region as Katrina.

[DoYouEverWonder]

14. Got a link that's in English

I can't figure out the charts that Minstral Boy posted.

[kdmorris]

47. Actually, it has to beat TD15 now

TD15 just formed out of the 93L (which is a bit to the east of this system and modeled to be a fish).

But, it could be Tropical Storm Ophelia (if it develops).

[expatriot]

2. this is someone's idea of a sick joke, right? nt

[Walt Starr]

11. Nope, the potential is very real. Tropical wave right now

Strong chance for develoment tomorrow. Would becoe Tropical Storm Nate by Wednesday, Hurricane Nate on Thursday.

[Webster Green]

17. Yeah, God's isea of a sick joke...

The dude (or dudess) is a real sicko!


Demand resignations! Now!

[RebelOne]

36. Not god. Mother Nature. n/t

[MojoXN]

3. Oh, dear sweet Jesus, I hope not.

This is just one nightmare after another...

MojoXN

[applegrove]

5. Oh - great. Now that there is debris everywhere..it will be a blender.

[libertypirate]

7. Since it kind of like predicting a slot machine, I would say it is a bit

early....

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

They are not even named storms as of yet, storm menu on left side.

[Rainscents]

20. Maybe they'll name the next storm... King George.

[Tyranny_R_US]

8. Now maybe FEMA can get a little taste :)

[Catherine Vincent]

9. Oh my!

[benburch]

10. That prediction is a real stretch.

I seriously doubt this will come to pass, but I'll keep an eye on it.

The reason is that it spends too much of its time over land or nearshore, and that usually keeps tropical cyclones from maintaining themselves.

[ClintonTyree]

43. Study the history of Katrina......

from the time it was a tropical storm off the Atlantic coast of Florida. No one could have guessed at that time what the final outcome would be. The initial forecast was for it to follow Florida's Gulf Coast northward as a tropical depression. The rest, as they say, is history.

[MadeinOhio]

12. I don't think this is a real stretch at all.....

I think we need Bush to resign right AWAY and get justice served very quickly because it ain't over yet and our mistakes of global warming are coming.......

[benburch]

26. I certainly don't think THAT is a stretch at all.

Whether this awful oracle comes to pass or not, more storms are coming, and they will come almost every year and in larger and larger numbers and more intensity. Eventually, we may even see a "hypercane" that destroys much of the southern USA. All the fruits of excessive CO2 emissions and the lack of leadership from the one nation that produces more CO2 per capita than any other.

[undeterred]

31. Maybe we can get him to go down there for a photo op

and meet Nate in person. :evilgrin:

[Fleshdancer]

13. we must move the survivors and gather our dead as soon as possible

of course we should be doing this with or without the possibility of another storm hitting but the idea of people still in there when another storm hits is horrific.

[MazeRat7]

15. Looks llike the TD is already formed off east fla (see 00Z05SEP) tag

Sure hope this plays out different. If not, this one will rake the entire gulf seaboard. Bad would be an understatement.

Here is a link to the FLA weather radar
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&ID=AMX&type=N0R&frame=0&lat=25.82897949&lon=-80.28563690&label=Miami%2C+FL&num=1&showstorms=0&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&map.x=427&map.y=110

Now look at the start of the simulation. Pretty damn close in my non-professional opinion.

MZr7

[sakabatou]

16. Eep

:tinfoilhat:

[rzemanfl]

18. National Hurricane Center has nothing on this. Can you get

further info? I am right in the projected path and scheduled to fly out of Tampa on Thursday.

[DoYouEverWonder]

23. I don't think we have a problem

It's real windy up by me today but that isn't unusual in the fall. No rain or anything except the usual.

I don't think it will build into anything by starting along the east coast and going across FL, except for a windy day. No water for it to build into anything. If it organizes on the other side in the gulf then it will be worth watching.

Plus this system is very cool, at least here so again I don't think it will stay together to become a hurricane.

[rzemanfl]

32. Unusually breezy here today too Dunedin on Gulf Coast North

of Clearwater. Where are you?

[DoYouEverWonder]

48. Gainesville

It's the first day that feels like fall, at least for No FL standards.

[Loge23]

40. area of low pressure

out west of the Bahamas. Still unsettled but worth watching.
Another large mass is just east of the Bahamas

[kdmorris]

50. All NHC really has is

The Tropical Weather Outlook and the Tropical Weather Discussion. The link are here:

TWO: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/051500.shtml

TWD: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/051735.shtml?

[teach1st]

19. Jeff Masters sees it differently

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Two disturbances to watch off of the coast of Florida.

The important threat in the tropics today is a large area of disturbed weather extending from Miami eastward over the Bahama Islands. A small circulation center, visible on winds from the QuikSCAT satellite, has developed in association with this disturbance, about 50 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale, FL. Shear values are still probably a little too high--about 10 knots--to permit a tropical depression to form in this region today. However, the shear is forecast to decrease, and a tropical depression could form Tuesday or Wednesday. The computer models are less agressive developing this system today, but still indicate a tropical storm could form here and very slowly move northwards along the coast of Florida towards the Carolinas.

A second disturbance with a well-defined circulation visible on both visible satellite images and QuikSCAT data is located about 600 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. A concentrated area of deep convection has developed on the south and east sides of the circulation center. There is no convection over the center, which would have to happen before the system can be classified as tropical depression. Highest winds observed by the QuikSCAT satellite are about 20 knots. Shear values are about 10 knots, which is marginal for development, but the shear is likely to decrease some today and tomorrow, and this system has a good chance of becoming Tropical Depression 15. The system is expected to move slowly northwestward and meander in the area between Bermuda and the Carolinas.

[MadeinOhio]

21. If this is true.......With the Gulf waters so hot now...

This bastard could be hitting both the Gulf and North/South Carolina!

:grr:

[Individualist]

25. So does NOAA

Tropical advisory gives information about the Pacific, and says elsewhere...no formation of tropical storms is expected through Tuesday.

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOEP+shtml/051611.shtml

[Rainscents]

27. Well, you know what, they didn't predicted Katrina to hit Gulf of NO

at first, storm took many by surprised "every" weather people!

[DoYouEverWonder]

39. They knew before Katrina hit FL

that she was going to go across FL and reform in the Gulf and get stronger.

This was predicted before Katrina turned into a hurricane.

[ClintonTyree]

45. It's first predicted track....

was up the Gulf Coast of Florida into the big bend area. Katrina fooled them all. A Hurricane NEVER tracks from the northeast to the southwest, right? Not in recent history anyway. I follow these things like a hawk from when they first leave Africa. I've been doing this for four years now, ever since my daughter started at Tulane University. We've had to evacuate her 4 times in four years. She was to return to NOLA on the 27th of August. I wouldn't let her.
Katrina defied all conventional wisdom concerning Hurricanes. One fickle and deadly lady she was.

[DoYouEverWonder]

49. Katrina certainly was deadly

but certainly wasn't fickle once she formed off the coast of FL

[Dogmudgeon]

55. Is your daughter all right?

:yoiks:

--p!

[soup]

35. Projection all over the place.

Trying to find the graphic. WAY too early to sound any alarms along the Gulf coast.

here it is:

discussion:
http://flhurricane.com/

graphic:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL932005

[rzemanfl]

41. I think there are two different possible storms being discussed

here. One off of Ft. Lauderdale and the other much further out.

[soup]

44. Yes, that's why I only posted the one by the Bahamas(94).

Here's the spagetti projection for the other that's further off the coast(93):
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL932005

and the discussion:
NHC is now monitoring a new area of interest (Invest 93L) to the east of the central Bahamas - see the Storm Forum for initial info on this disturbed area. A weak surface low was located near 26.5N 66.5W at 04/12Z with convection primarily south of the low. The low was drifting slowly to the north and slow development of this system is possible. Models generally take the system north and then northeast .
http://flhurricane.com/

--

But, then there's 92L, too. *sigh

Invest 92L was showing new signs of increased convection near 10N 52W at 04/12Z. The system is moving west northwest into an area that is more favorable for development and this could become a Tropical Depression in the next day or two. Models intensify this system and move it into the central Caribbean Sea south of the Dominican Republic by mid-week - worth keeping a close eye on this one.
http://flhurricane.com/

--

Finding nothing that says New Orleans is definitely going to get hit again.

[KoKo]

37. The Weather Channel just verified Masters forecasts...they are watching

the disturbance that's hovering near Ft. Lauderdale...

Sounds more like it will be a problem for us in the Carolinas than those in the Gulf, if it develops. :scared:

[wake.up.america]

22. Can we arrange a photo op or press conference about the same time it hits?

[Minstrel Boy]

24. screen capture of projected Sept 9 landfall:

[DoYouEverWonder]

28. Got a NOAA link?

Photobucket ain't gonna do it.

[kdmorris]

46. Actually, this is a model run

of the GFDL, which is a pretty good model. In fact, the GFDL is the only model that had Katrina going SW over the FL penisula. This particular storm is currently called Invest 94L, so you should be able to find information and models about it. If it forms before 93L (which just became TD 15) it will be Tropical Storm Nate. Otherwise, this one would be Opehilia (Dang, another pretty name!)

Edited to add the link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/051500.shtml

This is a TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook). The part that talks about his systems states:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW..IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Dogmudgeon]

29. Yes and No

No, New Orleans won't take another hit: Of the seven or eight best-established models, only three show even glancing blows, and none of the models are even close to being "accurate" a week out.

Yes, New Orleans is in for more rough weather: Prevailing winds increase the chance of any tropical system being steered into the Gulf Coast.

But, New Orleans isn't the only part of the Gulf Coast that got hit with Katrina. If a storm veers to the east and misses N.O., it could still ravage Biloxi or Pensacola.

Even a brush-by with heavy rain and moderately brisk winds will cause trouble. The entire levee system is weak, so new breaks are possible. A lot of partially-collapsed buildings could be pushed to complete collapse, posing greater danger to survivors and rescuers. If disease had gained a foothold, more rain could distribute it.

Another direct hit, even with a minimal (Cat-1) hurricane would be a major blow. A second Cat-4, as the GFDL run suggests, would be absolutely catastrophic, even with most of the inhabitants gone.

A strong Cat-5, on the order of Camille (1969) is unthinkable. But so was Katrina just ten days ago.

How many of us are confident that George Bush's FEMA can get its act together in less than two weeks?

--p!

[electron_blue]

30. Let's take advantage of Bush being so clueless

Can anyone here arrange for another Bush photo-op in the N.O. area to occur on, say, Sep 9?

[MoonRiver]

33. I'd rather have it hit NO again than somewhere else cause,

nobody's there.

[benburch]

34. I wish nobody were there...

But all indications are that there are still living people trapped.

[jus_the_facts]

38. as the sayin' says...wish in one hand...and shit in the other...see....

...which hand fills up faster...we can't handle what's happening now...much less more...a new world order depression is forming before our very eyes...and eyes are wide shut.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=155&topic_id=2340

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=105&topic_id=3954289


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=4628192

[Citizen Jane]

51. nhc discussion here

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/051735.shtml?

satellite photo here

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

[sexybomber]

52. I see nothing.

Granted, Station NMG New Orleans is offline, and they provide the tropical forecast for NOAA...

On edit: That 1008 mB low off Florida could be nasty, though.

[kansasblue]

53. .

[Minstrel Boy]

54. See post #46:

"This is a model run of the GFDL, which is a pretty good model. In fact, the GFDL is the only model that had Katrina going SW over the FL penisula."