**PLEASE** read this Hurricane Katrina FORECAST>>>>>

[Bluebear]

This may come in handy the next time someone says "Nobody could have predicted this." Or "the storm shifted", or "the levee break was a separate disaster." Here is the pertinent part of the forecast for Katrina issued 7pm CDT SUN AUG 28 2005. The time is important, because it is with the background that you remember that Bush CHOSE to go to Arizona to lobby seniors for his Medicare prescription drug plan. He CHOSE to dig his simian finger into John McCain's birthday cake and mug for the camera. He CHOSE to go on to California to hobnob with the elite at the Hotel del Coronado. He CHOSE to mug for the camera on Tuesday while a country singer gave him a guitar. He posed for a photo-op strumming along as people drowned and starved. This storm was no surprise. Of course, he was still technically "on vacation", so the next time your Aunt Martha tells you what a great leader he is, point out these facts in light of this forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public_a.024.shtml?
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.

ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS
OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE
NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE....COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

Murderer. J'accuse!

========

AN EVEN MORE DIRE FORECAST:

Thanks to DoYouEverWonder, with whom I was corresponding that Sunday. I remember clearly a Louisianan telling us to shut up and not tell people to get out or to "scare" people even though we had never seen a forecast so strongly worded. This was NOT a "surprise", Bush.


WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290300-
ASSUMPTION-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-
TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 26 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
ONSET AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND BY 3 AM CLOSER TO THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AREA AND PERSIST FOR 9 TO 15 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
AROUND 175 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET!

$$

LAZ034>037-039-046>049-MSZ068>071-077-290300-
AMITE-ASCENSION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-
PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST. HELENA-WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-
WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
SREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREATER BATON ROUGE AREA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR 22 TO 26 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET AROUND
DAYBREAK AND PERSIST FOR ABOUT 5 TO 10 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 80 TO 90 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET


http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwus74.klix.npw ...

Originally posted on 08/28/05

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[DoYouEverWonder]

1. Then read this one for even more proof

WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290300-
ASSUMPTION-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-
TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 26 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
ONSET AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND BY 3 AM CLOSER TO THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AREA AND PERSIST FOR 9 TO 15 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
AROUND 175 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET!

$$

LAZ034>037-039-046>049-MSZ068>071-077-290300-
AMITE-ASCENSION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-
PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST. HELENA-WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-
WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
SREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREATER BATON ROUGE AREA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR 22 TO 26 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET AROUND
DAYBREAK AND PERSIST FOR ABOUT 5 TO 10 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 80 TO 90 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET


http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwus74.klix.npw...

Originally posted on 08/28/05

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=4490806

[Bluebear]

2. I will include that in the OP

Do you remember the guy on here who kept telling us to shut up if we weren't from Louisiana, and that we were only scaring people?

[Horse with no Name]

6. Yep.

I hope he and his family came through this okay.
He was just terrified as well he should have been.
We pegged it--in retrospect I can't imagine reading the worst case scenario when it hadn't happened yet.:(

[Bluebear]

10. I hope he is OK too

I forget the screen name, but the message was something like "We know our area and know how to prepare, if you are not from here you are being voyeuristic". I was thinking, no, we want you people to head for higher ground :(

[Mz Pip]

3. I turned on the news for

5 minutes on Sunday morning and learned about how bad this was going to be. Worst storm ever, I believe I heard.

5 minutes. That was the extent to which I watched the news.

Where the fuck was everyone who could do something? If I learned of this after 5 minutes of randomly watching TV HOW THE HELL CAN ANYONE USE "WE DIDN"T KNOW?" as an excuse. Unfuckingbelievable.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[Bluebear]

4. They are trying the "9/11" defense all over again.

"Nobody could have imagined this."

[panzerfaust]

5. Silly Bear

The Great Leader said that no one could have predicted that the levees would break.

Break, Bear, not be 'over topped'.

Certainly, had the NWS forecast the levees to break (which they did), rather than - as they did not - be overtopped, then Our Greal Leader could have taken action.

If only he had KNOWN. If the NWS gets it so terribly wrong, how can our Beloved Leader overcome their incompetence.

If only, as was recently suggested, weather forcasting had been in competent, PRIVATE hands - then the Great Leader would have known & the people would have been saved.

[Bluebear]

7. Silly, silly me.

I didn't read closely enough :)

[Dudley_DUright]

15. Actually the lead NOLA levee engineer said on 60 Min. yesterday

that the levees broke because they first over-topped and that undermined them from the back side.

[mogster]

8. My forecast

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
DU WEATHER SERVICE
SUN SEP 5 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE '24. SEPT' CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
WHITE HOUSE...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

[LizW]

9. I can't believe anyone is trying to say they didn't know

the danger of levee breeches. Ponchartrain was always the big danger to NO. The hurricane watcher website I was reading discussed in great detail that an east hit was as dangerous for NO as a direct hit, because the counterclockwise rotation would circle around and push the lake SOUTHWARD into the city. The Weather Channel talked about it, for crying out loud.

[Quixote1818]

11. Remember all the graphics showing the storm surge flooding the city?

They were expecting widespread flooding and a breach in the levies. Those illustrations were shown over and over.

[Bluebear]

12. How well I do.

I remember screaming at our DU friends "get out!"

This was no "surprise", George. And you continued on your merry way.

[mandyky]

13. And wasn't Katrina 400-500 miles

in diameter? I am getting pretty sick of "the noone could have known" excuses from these idiots! Do they need it drawn in crayon or something? Just like the PDB saying Bin Ladin determined to strike US.
Jumping Jiminy! or in Swedish Yumping Yiminy! or in Spanish Ay Carumba!

[Bluebear]

14. 'drawn in crayon'

:)