Question for BBV People

[jiacinto]

If the yes vote is decisively and Arnold wins comfortable, will all the BBV people be screaming "Stolen Election"?

I just want to know.

[w4rma]

1. I may be. I'd have to look at the vote totals on a county by county basis

and specifically at the counties using DRE machines.

[jiacinto]

2. Here is my fear

It will be like the "Boy who Cried Wolf". If they make the claims without significant proof then, when real fraud occurs, no one will care.

[angka]

4. that's not likely.

although there are whackjobs on every project.

i think the key thing to do here is to listen *only* to the BBV-principals, not to the armies of (occasionally) breathless minions. i would hope you can differentiate.

lest we all become only as credible as the weakest mind...

[candy331]

11. Arnold up 14 points

on Monday caused me great concern. I could not see how he could have gone up that much. I kept hearing he won the debate and that sent his numbers up but if he won the debate so did I. What did he say to win it? I couldn't help feeling that this was preparation for the steal. I can hear them now saying how he went way up in the polls a week before the election and momentum was his after that even with the shock and awe revelations about Hitler and women. I am just very leary. What happens if so many people vote no on recall and then don't select a cadidate, Would that be good for Davis/whom?

[Andy_Stephenson]

17. Carlos...pull your head out of the sand and wake the fuck up!

Vote rigging is real and mark my words Arnie is gonna win. This si a trial run for 2004.

[jiacinto]

24. So then you think that more people want to vote no

and for Bustamente even though the polls show the complete opposite?

So there is no way, then, that maybe more people will truly vote for Arnold and the recall on Tuesday?

[Andy_Stephenson]

29. How do you know the polls are not skewed?

Do you know for sure?

[jiacinto]

30. No

But why do you assume that every election is stolen that doesn't go your way?

[Andy_Stephenson]

32. How do you know they aren't rigged?

can you know for sure? With no paper trail we don't really know do we?

[Cocoa]

34. with a paper trail we don't know for sure either

though I think the paper trail would help.

My point is that "how do we know it's not rigged" would apply to any system, if you choose to discuss election security that way.

[shance]

25. GBC - I would caution an assumption that would drive off potential voters

I say that as a Californian, and a person who is very concerned about electronic voting not to mention THIS RECALL. The heat is on Schwartzenegger, and assuming we are not too far gone with electronic machinery here, I would make an uneducated assumption that Davis still stands a very good chance to win the recall. The last thing we want to do is drive away voters that actually WOULD have made a difference. The key now is to get us voters there, if the fraud happens, it will be MUCH easier to target if we had a stronger majority showing up at the polls. The booths are going to be watched and "they" i would assume, know it. Bottom line: any information that would empower the California Dems right now - WE NEED IT.

And if you have some stats to back your claim that the ink is essentially dry, I hope you can give us a heads up so that we can look to what we do after the recall.

For instance does anyone know the percentage of electronic rigging machines that are presently in California?

It would be very helpful to know precisely which counties have gone "electric" so that we could have a better indication of the incoming data and which counties to watch with the tighest scrutiny.

If you or anyone has that information, could you post the counties here, or direct us to where we could obtain that info? That would be tremendously helpful, and give us Californians some good information.

[gristy]

6. I would want to see the totals on a precinct by precinct basis

Depending on the results, and if I was more skilled in law, I would try to sue in court for a "recount" in selected precincts that used DRE. Of course, since they won't be able to "recount" a damn thing, they would then have to explain this in court.

This would really only make sense if you could identify some precinct results that just didn't add up, so to speak. I'm thinking of some careful statistical analysis of this race compared to other races and compared to the demographics of each precinct. This kind of analysis has been done elsewhere - I think I read about it here on DU. Someone identified some hanky panky somewhere, but I really don't remember.

[alfredo]

3. No, but if he was polling 20 points down on the eve of the election

then pulled a big win, we may want to see if the votes were handled correctly. If there are signs of disenfranchisement like we saw in Florida, then I am sure the people of California will raise holy hell.

I am sure there will be a lot of eyes on how this election is run.

[billbuckhead]

8. Have Dems ever done well under blackbox voting?

I voted in the last election that way and let me tell you it sucks. I don't think my votes for Max Cleland and Roy Barnes were counted. I say question to death this system because it makes people think their votes don't count. As a consumer it makes me feel buyers remorse. If it happens again, I'll feel real cheated.
It took me a long time to trust bank ATM's enough to put my paycheck or cash into them as deposits. I would feel uneasy to this day if I didn't get a paper receipt. Ironically, Banks in America are trying to do away with a paper trail the same time politics does the same.

[ParanoidPat]

5. We'll see what kind of numbers he gets......

.....and analyze them based on the demographics of each precinct and the type of equipment used in each county. We'll then offer the data up for statistical analysis to determine whether the probabilities for the numbers are in line with expectations.

Should any problems with the touch screens crop up in central California, we have 2 video crews on standby to document them. :evilgrin:

Anyone in northern or southern Ca. want to play? All that's needed is a car, a good video camera and a cell phone. :)

[gristy]

7. Hey, PP, we must have been on a "mind-meld" the past 5 minutes

Check my post #6! I wish I was in CA, I'd love to stake out a polling place.

[ramblin_dave]

13. Was such an analysis done for the Georgia 2002 election?

If so what were the results? If not, why not?

[DEMActivist]

14. We have a statistician working on that now

Details to follow.

But in an early evaluation the following was found:

What's interesting, though, is how the counties' party loyalties shifted between the primary and the general election. Voters in 58 counties spread throughout the state (accounting for 40 percent of the state's electorate) voted more as less as they did in the primary. In the other 101 counties, the results were a little odd. In 27 counties in the Republican-dominated North, voters supported Republican Chambliss as expected, but Democrat Cleland won 14 percent more of the vote than he did in the primary. Likewise in 74 counties in the traditionally Democratic South, Cleland carried the day, but Chambliss won 22 percent more of the ballots than he could have expected based on the primary results.

So in the end, 60 percent of Georgia's electorate live in counties which dramatically shifted partisan loyalties between the primary and general elections. Yet the final tally didn't follow those shifts. In addition to his stable power base, Cleland won those anomalous Southern counties that shifted toward the GOP in the primary by an 18 percent margin. Unfortunately for him, Chambliss won the Northern counties that veered towards the Dems in the primary by a whopping 29 percent of the vote. What happened?

http://www.citypaper.com/2002-12-11/pf/feature_pf.html

[hunter]

22. The poker player is utterly clueless in a good game of Calvinball!

For heaven's sake, these guys don't even know how to play chess. Um, hint, you can't really "bluff" in chess, it's all out there on the table, there are no "invisible" pawns, no hidden cards. Fat lot of good your practiced "poker face" will do you in a game of Chess or CalvinBall. Your opponent has Asperger's Sydrome.

Before we begin, we'd like to refer you to a line from The Calvin and Hobbes 10th Anniversary Book, in which Bill Watterson writes, "People have asked how to play Calvinball. It's pretty simple; you make up the rules as you go." 

I've heard G.W. Bush plays poker. :evilgrin:

[TruthIsAll]

33. Senate 2002 election fraud probability analysis

THE PURPOSE OF THE ANALYSIS
A statistical analysis of the Senate 2002 elections has employed basic probability theory to determine the odds that four out of eight hotly contested Senate races would dramatically turn from the Democrat to the Republican, based on the latest polling numbers taken just prior to the election.

See: American Coup: Mid-Term Election Polls vs Actuals
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0211/S00078.htm

These results should be taken in the context of the paper "Analysis of an Electronic Voting System", written by four computer scientists. They assert that their analysis of the Diebold electronic voting system shows that "it is far below even the most minimal security standards applicable in other contexts".

The statistical analysis does NOT constitute proof of fraud, but nevertheless are highly incriminating as circumstantial evidence.

THE POLLING MARGIN OF ERROR
The probability that a given state poll will be correct within the +/- 3% margin of error (MOE) is 19 out of 20 or 95%.

The odds that 4 out of 8 elections would fall outside the MOE (and ALL go for the Repubs) is 1 out of 43,040.

THE STATES IN QUESTION
The four states which experienced these remarkable turnarounds were:

1-Minnesota: The Democrats were leading 47-39% in the final polls; the Republicans won by 50-47%, an 11 point switch.

2-Georgia: The Democrats were leading 49-44% in the final polls; the Republicans won by 53-46%, a 12 point switch.

3-Texas: The Democrats were trailing by 48-49% in the final polls; the Republicans won by 55-43%, an 11 point switch.

4-New Hampshire: The Democrats were leading by 46-40% in the final polls; the Republicans won by 51-47%, a 10 point switch.

Each of these races turned around with deviations significantly beyond the 6% margin of error range.

Out of 8 races, the probability that ALL would fall WITHIN the margin of error =66.3%, or 2 out of 3. Stated another way, the chances that 1 or more states would fall OUTSIDE the MOE =33.7%, or 1 out of 3.

THE CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION PROBABILITY FUNCTION
The statistical analysis utilized the Cumulative Binomial Distribution function. This function computes the probability that there would be at least (N) successes in a series of (T) independent trials, where (P) is the probability of success in any trial. For any values of N,T,and P the Probability is calculated using the Excel Function: =BINOMDIST(N,T,P,TRUE)

For the case of 4 out of 8, with 95% probability
= BINOMDIST(4,8,.95,TRUE)= 0.000371751

In addition, the probability is 1/2 (50%) that any given election falling outside the MOE would go for the Democrat (or Republican). Therefore, the probability that ALL four would fall for the Republican is the product 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2= 1/16

SUMMARY OF RESULTS
The odds that 4 out of 8 hotly contested Senate elections would fall outside the MOE (all for the Repubs) is the Joint Probability: 1/16*.000371751= .0000232, or 1 out of 43,040.

Assuming that 16 elections were hotly contested, The odds that 4 out of 16 elections would fall outside the MOE (all for the Repubs) is
1 out of 2,284.

Assuming that ALL 34 elections were hotly contested, the odds that 4 out of 34 elections would fall outside the MOE(all for the Repubs) is
1 out of 182.

[Andy_Stephenson]

19. I have a cam...a car and a cell phone...

and can travel. If need be.

[creativelcro]

9. ....

Do you really think that the Repubs. are going to try to steal this election ??? Even if Arnold wins, it is not clear it would be good for them. What is he gonna do to fix CA's problems ? It is more likely that the Dem might try to use whatever tactics to cheat... THey have more to lose... -C

[gristy]

10. CA DRE precincts need to be monitored and their results studied

to attempt to document any system error OR fraud by EITHER party. Electronic voting is a non-partisan issue. Every citizen should be absolutely appalled by the existence and use of these systems. They can be subverted by democrats and republicans alike, though the well-founded suspicion right now is on the republicans.

[ParanoidPat]

15. Here's a list of equipment to be used in the Oct. 7 election.

County
Alameda Diebold Accu-Vote-TS touchscreen
Alpine Datavote punch card
Amador ES&S Optech Eagle optical scan
Butte Mark-A-Vote optical scan
Calaveras Datavote punch card
Colusa ES&S 550 Optech optical scan
Contra Costa ES&S 550 Optech optical scan
Del Norte Datavote punch card
El Dorado Datavote punch card
Fresno Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Glenn Datavote punch card
Humboldt Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Imperial Datavote punch card
Inyo Datavote punch card
Kern Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Kings Sequioa Optech optical scan
Lake Mark-A-Vote optical scan
Lassen Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Los Angeles Votomatic punch card
Madera Mark-A-Vote optical scan
Marin Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Mariposa Sequioa Optech optical scan
Mendocino Votomatic punch card
Merced ES&S 550 Optech optical scan
Modoc Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Mono Sequioa Optech optical scan
Monterey Datavote punch card
Napa Sequioa Optech optical scan
Nevada ES&S 550 Optech optical scan
Orange Hart Ballot Now optical scan
Placer Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Plumas Diebold Accu-Vote-TS touchscreen
Riverside Sequioa Edge touchscreen
Sacramento Pollstar punch card
San Benito Datavote punch card
San Bernardino Sequioa Optech optical scan
San Diego Votomatic punch card
San Francisco ES&S Optech Eagle optical scan
San Joaquin Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
San Luis Obispo Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
San Mateo ES&S Optech Eagle optical scan
Santa Barbara Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Santa Clara Pollstar punch card
Santa Cruz Mark-A-Vote optical scan
Shasta Sequioa Edge touchscreen
Sierra Votomatic punch card
Siskiyou Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Solano Votomatic punch card
Sonoma Mark-A-Vote optical scan
Stanislaus ES&S 650 Optech optical scan
Sutter Mark-A-Vote optical scan
Tehama Datavote punch card
Trinity Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Tulare Diebold Accu-Vote-OS optical scan
Tuolumne ES&S 550 Optech optical scan
Ventura Datavote punch card
Yolo Datavote punch card
Yuba Datavote punch card

[hunter]

12. California is not practicing voting machine monoculture yet!

I will be watching this recall election very closely...

For a list of California voting systems go to:

http://www.calvoter.org/votingtech/directory.html

Anybody out there who has a good background in statistics and demographics, you need to take a very good look at the election results next week.

I'm betting the recall will fail, and I have a lot of friends who are going to take Arnold Shwarzenegger down hard if they have to.

This ain't Hollywood, it's real life.

[creativelcro]

16. Only 4?

hi, somehow I've seen more than in one place that 14 counties in CA will be using TS machines... I see only 4 here... Something wrong ?... -C

[ParanoidPat]

18. IIRC, the 14 county figure....

.....was a reference to the lawsuit that was dismissed. Had the plaintiffs prevailed, all counties using 'punch card' technology would have been forced to purchase new touch screen equipment before the election could take place, pushing the date out until March. :)

[depakid]

20. It depends on what the numbers show

Unfortunately, most people don't know jack about statistics or analytic methods (even though they have a beauty tool- Excel- sitting right there on the computer) so they're easily manipulated by the media into false beliefs and expectations. I have no doubt whatsoever, based on my review of some of the election numbers over the past 6-8 years that voting fraud has in fact taken place in several states, including Nebraska, Florida and Georgia. "Proof" so to speak, is very difficult to come by- fraud by its very nature is a difficult crime to prove and with most of the evidence concealed under intellectual property laws, smoking guns are almost impossible to retrieve. That's the beauty of the scam.

I also have no doubt that there will be problems or "issues" in implementing these touch screen paperless system. Anyone who's every rolled out a new technology product will tell you that. Whether as a result the vote is skewed in one direction or another is anyone's guess at this point, but there will be considerable scrutiny of "irregularities" in certain counties and I would hazard a guess that in at least some of the cases we will find that these irregularities benefitted Arnold.

[ParanoidPat]

21. Would you be interested in looking at what passes for 'audit logs'.....

.....from some recent elections? :shrug: :evilgrin:

[depakid]

23. Sure

but the trouble if the data is not reliable or can be easily manipulated without leaving a trace, then the analysis of the logs is essentially meaningless. Unless someone is incomparably stupid, it's sort of a catch 22 stupid.

[jiacinto]

26. Ok

nt

[wyldwolf]

27. No, because unlike many of the 2002 congressional elections..

Arnold is polling higher.

In 2002, any number of Dems were polling higher but "lost."

[Eloriel]

31. About those polls ....

A very curious thing. Davis had momentum going for him until quite suddenly, all in one day, the "polls" showed Arnold surging ahead. There was one small report on MSNBC that "day" the polls started showing Arnold ahead, that said another poll showed "wildly different results." We never heard anything more about THAT poll, though.

I firmly believe we've got a vote suppression technique going on. After all, why bother if Arnold IS going to win?

I would encourage someone, anyone, in CA to try to get their hands on ALL the recent polls full details.

Eloriel

[HFishbine]

28. Question for jiacinto

Will you read the book now that it's available for free online?