Have you met anyone who will vote for a Dem in '08 to stop withdrawal?

[More Than A Feeling]

I have. He's a very smart guy who correctly predicted that the administration's rosy scenarios were not going to come to pass in the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq (While I was drinking the kool-aid. mea culpa!)

Anyway, last night, I was trying to tell him that we needed to withdraw, and he accused me of "fatalistic thinking" because I told him that events have been set in motion that cannot now be undone. Iraq will fall apart and become a vassal state to Iran, whether we like it or not, and the only question is how many of our boys have to die before that comes to pass.

His response was to attempt to convince me that electing a Democrat in '08 would be enough to right the ship, get the Sunnis to buy into the political process, and still keep the troops in (why the sunnis would do this when they are winning, I don't know) He himself is not a Democrat (libertarian who still hates Bush).

Do any of you believe that electing a Dem in '08 without withdrawing the troops is a recipe for success? Why is someone who was willing to contradict the official line before now buying into the "we break it, we bought it" mentality? Admittedly, the consequences of withdrawal are unpleasant in the extreme, and I wish it weren't so, but they will happen. How can I convince this guy to support total withdrawal immediately?

[longship]

1. Katrina will help change minds.

The aftermath of the LA/MS/AL disaster will seep into the nation's conscience. It is going to change thinking, change priorities, change minds. By the time the 2008 political season arrives there will be a new mindset. Just as 9/11 changed the world, so will this. I really do not think that the neocons have *any* defense that doesn't hurt them more than it hurts our opposition. Come Nov, 2008 we will have our candidate if we keep trumpeting the important issues.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

2. Your libertarian friend is full of shit.

If the Dems are stupid enough (not an unusual thing) to nominate a pro-war/pro-occupation candidate again, as they did in '04, and if he/she were to be elected, it would hardly "right the ship". It would just be more of the same unspeakable bloody mess that it is today.

The "we broke it we bought it" crap is just a new "peace with honor" load of swill and the "Iraq will become a vassal state of Iran" sounds like a re-run of the domino theory so beloved of the "commies are coming" cold warrior neo-cons of yore.

It's get out now or get thrown out later.

[enigma000]

3. This won't be an issue in 2008

Not to go radical here, but the 2008 primaries are 2 1/2 years away and the real start of election 2008 (after Labour Day) is 3 years away. The situation in Iraq at this point will have settled in one direction or another.

A constitutional government will be elected this December (or, if postponed, by the middle of next year) and one of two scenarios will play out. First, the Sunni Arabs learn to play nice in which case there is no reason for American troops to remain and any Democratic candidate can freely say so.

Or a Kurdish-Shiite coalition government will govern the country fighting a long but controllable insurgency with the Sunni in "LOSER-stän" an isolated, oil-less cesspool administered by al-Zarqawi and his jihadist friends. At which point the American public will be sick of this 5 year long war and will welcome troop withdrawal.

on edit: LOSER-STAN

[FlemingsGhost]

4. I believe that anyone who is thinking that future "elections" are ...

going to make any difference, is in serious denial.

[enigma000]

5. The outcome will be less certain that some elections

Doubts on Egyptian poll

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,16537694%255E663,00.html

They say forced voting, paid voters, unmanned polling stations, missing indelible ink and the use of public transport to ferry voters to polling stations were tactics used by Mr Mubarak's National Democratic Party.

I imagine you fall into category #2: Kurdish-Shiite government with simmering insurgency in Jihad-stan (oops, Sunni-stan)

If American troops are still conducting military operations in Iraq in 2008 any Dem running for the nomination better be pro-withdrawal.