Why So Many People Did Not Evacuate

[DFWdem]

There is a reason that many people did not evacuate from New Orleans before hurricane Katrina struck, and I have not seen it mentioned here on DU. The reason so many stayed in the city is because they played chicken with the hurricane and lost. The citizens of New Orleans are well acquainted with hurricanes and evacuations. However, the majority of the city’s inhabitants have never been through a severe hurricane. The last big storm to hit the city was hurricane Betsy in 1965, 40 years ago. More recently, hurricane Ivan threatened to plow into the city last year, but changed course at the last minute and hit Alabama instead, inflicting massive damage on that state. Many in New Orleans evacuated for Ivan. Indeed, the contra-flow evacuation plan for the interstates was devised due to the heavy congestion and difficulty arising from the evacuation for Ivan. In fact, if you trace the paths of Ivan and Katrina you will see that their approaches to land were very similar, with the main difference being that Ivan veered east at the last possible minute while Katrina did not. Consequently, the people of New Orleans assumed the governor was crying wolf. After all, they evacuated for Ivan and a number of other storms over the past 40 years, yet each and every time it was a false alarm. New Orleanians were lulled into complacency, and now they have paid dearly.

Residents in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida always wait until the last minute to evacuate because hurricanes are known to change course on a moment’s notice. My own parents, both of whom grew up in New Orleans and have lived on the Mississippi Gulf Coast since 1960, did not evacuate until Sunday at 2pm, when Katrina’s path was obvious. Had everyone who congregated at the Superdome and Convention Center heeded the governor’s call to evacuate on Saturday, they likely would not have been in the position in which they found themselves. True, not everyone had the means to evacuate, but those people probably number roughly 5,000 – 10,000. Unfortunately approximately 10 times that number elected to stay behind. They played chicken with Katrina, and this time they lost.

[BlueEyedSon]

1. What would the people WHO HAD NO MEANS TO EVACUATE do

if they weren't "playing chicken"?

[DFWdem]

3. City government

The city can handle an evacuation of 10,000 over a 24 hour period. They cannot handle an evacuation of 100,000 over a 24 hour period.

[July]

4. Which is why part of their disaster response plan (discussed w/

Chertoff) is to provide transportation to temporary shelter for those unable to evacuate -- just what they did with Regional Transit Authority buses to the Superdome.

At the beginning, they thought people would be able to return to their homes, as well. Then the levees broke.

[Egalitariat]

103. Take a free bus to the Superdome?****

It wasn't pleasant, but the survival rate was much higher than in people's attics.

[stray cat]

2. It is truely amazing how many people did evacuate

I had friends who had evacuated during other false alarms and after spending 10 hours trying to get out gave up and went home (before the contraflow was inacted. Being caught on the road is one of the worst possibilities in a hurricane. These friends swore they wouldn't evacuate but the hurricane and the mayor scared them into it this time. The fact that so many were convinced to get out was an outstanding achievement.

[TexasBushwhacker]

11. I agree

I think that considering the size of New Orleans, it's amazing how many people got out in such a short period of time. Maybe lots of people were already out of town for the Labor Day weekend. Even so, there's no denying that more could have gotten out if transportation had been provided, and then there's the levee breaks. Had that not happened (and yes, George WE DID FORESEE IT) there would have been far fewer deaths and New Orleans could have gotten back on its feet much quicker.

[DoYouEverWonder]

5. Nagin evacuated 80% of the city

That is an unprecedented number. FEMA only expected to be able to get 60% out of the city.

The problem in hurricane prone areas are all the false alarms. After awhile people get burnt out and stop paying attention.

[babylonsister]

9. Buses were used to PU people at 12 locations:

Buses were used to PU people at 12 locations:
Buses were used to pick up people at 12 locations - Prior to storm
Edited on Fri Sep-09-05 04:59 AM by DoYouEverWonder

Sunday, August 28, 2005

Around 112,000 Orleanians do not own cars, according to census data. Nagin urged those people to seek rides with friends, family, neighbors and church members. Those who could not find rides were urged to get to the Superdome as quickly as possible.

Regional Transit Authority buses were scheduled to ferry people to the dome from 12 locations around the city beginning at noon today.

Meantime, to make sure word of the mandatory evacuation gets out, Nagin said that police and fire crews would be driving through neighborhoods Sunday with bullhorns, directing people to leave.

The evacuation order contained exemptions for certain people, including city, state and federal officials, inmates of the parish prison, those in hospitals, tourists staying in hotels and members of the media.

An emergency order Nagin announced Sunday in declaring the mandatory evacuation gives authorities the right to commandeer private buildings and vehicles — including boats — as they see fit.

The mayor did not say which buildings might be seized for public use. For the time being, the Superdome will be used as a “shelter of last resort” for those unable to evacuate the city. If the dome fills to capacity, other buildings could be appropriated, Nagin said.

Nagin said the dome’s availability to residents doesn’t mean that going there is a good idea.


http://www.nola.com/newslogs/breakingtp/index.ssf?/mtlo ...




Alert

[never_get_over_it]

6. I live in FL

you are exactly correct - we do wait and see - its not really a matter of playing chicken - it is just very hard to evacuate. It is not only a question of having the means to get out but if you wait too long it is very difficult because of the grid lock on the roads out. I heard a story of a family that had the means to evacuate and got stuck in traffic for SEVEN hours and feared they would be in the car when the storm hit so they turned around and went home and rode out the storm.

I evacuated for Frances and when Jeanne came you couldn't have pried me out of my house - the Frances evacuation was a freaking nightmare. I understand that 80% did evacuate NOLA for Katrina and I believe that is a very good number as far as evacuations go.

It has been so easy for people to criticize those who didn't evacuate and I bet the vast majority of those criticizing have never evacuated and don't know what the hell they are talking about.

[DoYouEverWonder]

13. Most of the experts around here and the rest of the net

have never even been in a hurricane no less had to evacuate for one numerous times.

[Der Blaue Engel]

7. Let's say some percentage of people who did not evacuate

actually had the ability to do so (I strongly dispute that this is a large number, but let's just assume); WHO CARES??? So a human being makes an error in judgment...do they deserve to starve to death? How many times have victims of other hurricanes, victims who actually ADMIT to staying behind foolishly, been compassionately helped?

I'm going to start tearing my hair out if I hear any more of this blaming the victim crap on DU.

edited to clarify supposition

[DFWdem]

12. Not blaming the victim

It's a statement of fact. I lived 2 miles off the beach in Mississippi for 25 years, and I have over 100 extended family in the New Orleans area. The mindset of the majority of people in the area is to not evacuate until you're absolutely certain you're in danger, and by that time it's often too late. If a statement of fact qualifies as blaming the victim, then so be it.

[Der Blaue Engel]

15. So be it.

My main point was who cares WHY they stayed behind? What is the point of even debating it? They were still left to die by an incompetent, heartless administration.

If you're just trying to explain why someone might stay behind, I can totally understand that. But the words "they played chicken and lost" kind of gave me the impression you were blaming them. I guess it's all subjective.

[DFWdem]

20. Post-hurricane activities were FUBARed

No doubt about it. There was failure at every level of gov't, most especially at FEMA. One thing I can guarantee you, though, is that for the next hurricane the evacuation rate will be about 95% - 98%.

[Solomon]

96. But where would these people you blame have gone even if they could

get out? Out on the highway?

[skids]

8. Pets.

We are seeing this more clearly every day. The failure of the government to take into account natural human loyalty to their pets by creating a pet shelter and accomodating pet evacuation cost many human lives.

When the dead are identified, and then compared with the census data, I certainly hope they will start to take this issue seriously.

Some people may have "played chicken." My bet though is most that were able bodied and could have even walked to the superdome if they wanted, stayed due to either pets, immobile elderly relatives, or greed (to protect valuable property.)

[KittyWampus]

Govt. Models Expected Only 60% To Evacuate. 80% Actually Did.

many who stayed had no means of leaving.

yes, some stayed because they didn't believe the situation was life-threatening.

but WHO CARES WHY THEY DIDN'T LEAVE?

[Nederland]

35. Link

I've heard this statistic several times now. Do you have a link to that study? I googled a couple different phrase but couldn't find it.

[Catherine Vincent]

36. Apparently Larry King cares-he asks each Katrina survivor that on his show

:eyes:

[KittyWampus]

10. Govt. Models Expected Only 60% To Evacuate. 80% Actually Did.

many who stayed had no means of leaving.

yes, some stayed because they didn't believe the situation was life-threatening.

but WHO CARES WHY THEY DIDN'T LEAVE?

[FlemingsGhost]

14. Link?

"True, not everyone had the means to evacuate, but those people probably number roughly 5,000 – 10,000."

Thanks.

[DFWdem]

16. No link, rough guesstimate

If 100,000 stayed in the city, it is reasonable to assume that 5% - 10% had absolutely no way of leaving, i.e. no friends, family, neighbors, church members, etc. with cars. Sure, 100,000 people may not own cars, but that is a much different number than 100,000 not having access to a ride in a car with someone they know.

[FlemingsGhost]

17. So the crux of your argument rests on an assumption?

You must work for FEMA

[DFWdem]

18. Try personal experience

I'm sorry, how long did you say you lived in a hurricane zone? How many relatives do you have in New Orleans and Mississippi? Zero? Ah, okay. I guess that gives you a unique insight into the minds and culture of the people from that area.

Do you believe that 10% is an unreasonable number of people who have absolutely zero access to transportation? If so, we can use 20%. Even then you're looking at only 20,000 people rather than 100,000.

[FlemingsGhost]

19. What other assumptions are you making?

Given the lack of facts, you've got nothing on me, or my experience.

[DFWdem]

21. That would be the only one

Again, I ask you how many hurricanes you've evacuated for or ridden out? For me it's every one that approached Mississippi from 1970 through 1995, and then from 2000 to 2004. I've seen many assumptions here and elsewhere in the last week. Assuming 10%-20% of those who stayed in the city had zero access to transportation seems rather reasonable. Others may disagree.

[Horse with no Name]

23. zinggggggg

Very nice.:applause:

[crispini]

27. I disagree with your assumption.

27.9% of Orleans parish (pop 469,032) lives below the poverty level.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/22/22071.html

that is approximately 100,000 people living below the poverty level.

do you realize how low the poverty level is?

2004 HHS Poverty Guidelines
Size of Family Unit --- 48 Contiguous States and D.C.
1 $ 9,310
2 12,490
3 15,670
4 18,850
5 22,030
6 25,210
7 28,390
8 31,570
For each additional
person, add 3,180 3,980 3,660

http://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty/04poverty.shtml

EIGHTEEN THOUSAND A YEAR FOR A FAMILY OF FOUR! You tell me how they can buy a car on that.

[DFWdem]

28. Like I said

There's a big difference between 100,000 people not having a car versus 100,000 not having access to a car via family, friends, church, etc.

[crispini]

34. even if you are living at twice the poverty level,

you may not own a car. that greatly decreases the pool of available vehicles. if you, your family, and friends are all in the same income bracket, you are ALL much less likely to get a car.


Here ya go:

(snip)
"The white people got out," declared the New York Times today. But, as the article in the Times makes clear, the people who got out were those with automobiles (http://tinyurl.com/adgjx ). Those who stayed, regardless of color, were those who lacked autos.
What made New Orleans more vulnerable to catastrophe than most U.S. cities is its low rate of auto ownership. According to the 2000 Census, nearly a third of New Orleans households do not own an automobile. This compares to less than 10 percent nationwide. There are significant differences by race: 35 percent of black households but only 15 percent of white households do not own an auto (see http://tinyurl.com/bpw4z). But in the end, it was auto ownership, not race, that made the difference between safety and disaster.
"The evacuation plan was really based on people driving out," an LSU professor told the Times. On Saturday and Sunday, August 27 and 28, when it appeared likely that Hurricane Katrina would strike New Orleans, those people who could simply got in their cars and drove away. The people who didn't have cars were left behind.

http://www.reason.org/commentaries/moore_20050906.shtml

[DFWdem]

50. Of course

Who knows better the mentality of those in the South than the New York Times??? You know, the area the people who write the NYT consider "fly over country".

The article does say that on Saturday and Sunday, when it appeared likely Katrina would strike New Orleans, people started to leave. Not Friday when there was a hurricane watch, or Saturday when there was still plenty of time, but Sunday, when you only have the choice of last resort.

[crispini]

57. The relevant part of the article was

not that it was in the NYT, but that, "nearly a third of New Orleans households do not own an automobile. This compares to less than 10 percent nationwide." That's a statistic, by the US Census, doesn't matter if you publish it in the NYT or the Podunk Weekly.

And the fact that NOLA was 80% evacuated despite the fact that 30% do not own cars means that 10% did in fact avail themselves of your 'ride with friends' plan. Still not enough.

And may I once again direct your attention to this quote by an LSU professsor: "The evacuation plan was really based on people driving out," an LSU professor told the Times.

[DFWdem]

61. I agree

The evacuation plan was based on people driving out. Did the Governor, Mayor, and City Council not realize that tens of thousands of their constituents in the area did not have a vehicle? The main point I'm trying to make is this: This has been a problem for the past 40 years, and not one person in a position of power has done a damn thing about it. All levels of government have known this is a problem since at least 1965, yet all of them have left the problem for the next person to address. Nobody ever addressed it, and they finally ran out of time.

[crispini]

65. Your point seems to have changed.

Your original post was all about how the people of NOLA "elected to stay behind. They played chicken with Katrina...."

[DFWdem]

67. Many did

Some had no choice, but many elected to stay behind.

[fortyfeetunder]

72. How do you know "many" elected to stay behind?

You are bordering darned close to the grey area of generalizations.

[DFWdem]

74. Happens in every storm

Every one I can remember going back to hurricane Frederick in 1978 (the earliest one I can remember). My own family elected to stay behind many times. The simple fact of the matter is that until the sustained winds top about 110 -120 mph, people in the gulf states don't get too worried about a hurricane. Unless you're projected to be directly in the path of the hurricane, not on the outskirts, you probably won't experience winds above 100 mph or so.

[FlemingsGhost]

73. Is it reasonable to assert:

Many had no choice, but some elected to stay behind?

[DFWdem]

75. Could be

But based on my experiences over the years it is more probable that the opposite was the case. There's no doiubt that tens of thousands of people were failed by their government, but as you see now with the move towards forced evacuations, many people just don't want to leave.

[FlemingsGhost]

76. If those people leave their homes, are they getting them back?

C'mon ... these people are poor, not stupid.

[DFWdem]

79. Probably not

I agree, I would be hesitant to leave too, except that water and what must be a god-awful stench throughout the city by now. I think I'd begrudgingly leave just based on the health risk alone due to the toxic soup that's running through the streets of the city. I agree though, it is a tough spot. The whole thing is tragic.

[crispini]

77. Well...

Doubtless some people were stupid enough to be storm thrill-seekers, but many simply could not get out, whether it be for financial reasons, because they were in hospitals, or couldn't get a rent-a-car or a flight out -- there were many tourists stuck in hotels in that situation.

I find it very interesting that you indict the local government officials ("Governor, Mayor, and City Council") only for failure to plan. Of course, there is more than enough blame to go around. However, disaster planning on such a large scale, it seems to me, should be FEMA's proper responsibility.

And, in fact, FEMA contracted with a company called "Innovative Emergency Management" in 2004 to run a simulation exercise and develop a disaster plan for NOLA. The simulation exercise was run in 2004. However, the development of the disaster plan, which was "phase two," and was scheduled to take place from Sept. 204 - 2005, apparently did not happen.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4715042

From this it seems to me quite clear that even FEMA itself recognized that disaster planning on this scale is their responsibility.

[DFWdem]

80. They didn't need another damn study

Everyone knew after Betsy in 1965 that this was going to happen. It wasn't a matter of if, it was a matter of when. So yes, I indict the local & state governments as well as the federal government because they all had 40 years to figure out a solution, but none of them did. Screw what they knew in 2004, they knew this crap in 1965.

[crispini]

81. no, they didn't need another damn study,

they needed a FUCKING GOOD PLAN, which apparently they did NOT have. Now, WHY did they not have that plan? I find this Kos diary interesting.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/9/9/192848/9052

the last two paragraphs:

So: Louisiana did have a hurricane plan, but was devising a new one, to be based on recommendation from the people who would actually be doing the work. The need to evacuate people from impact areas, including those without transportation or the means to obtain it, was discussed, despite media assertions to the contrary. The possibility of levee overflow was discussed (levee breaching may have been discussed at some point, but I was in the dewatering room, and I never heard it mentioned. A rescue and evacuation plan, including sheltering, was reasonably firm. There were and are officials in Louisiana, including New Orleans Emergency Management, who know the limitations of current planning and who have been trying to come up with a better solution.

The problem is FEMA, and by extension the Department of Homeland Security, which gobbled FEMA up in 2003. FEMA promised more than they could deliver. They cut off deeper, perhaps more meaningful discussion and planning by handing out empty promises. The plans that were made -- which were not given any sort of stamp of authority -- were never distributed or otherwise made available to those who most needed stable guidance; they vanished into the maw of FEMA and LOSHEP (probably when Col. Brown was removed from his command due to financial "irregularities" -- the project was tainted after that). Adoption of the National Incident Management System (NIMS) would have made most of the plans moot anyway -- FEMA's adherence to the untried NIMS is a primary reason for the chaos and ineptitude surrounding their relief efforts.

[DFWdem]

83. Why did it take so long...?

And still nothing was done?

"Louisiana did have a hurricane plan, but was devising a new one, to be based on recommendation from the people who would actually be doing the work."

That would be local government officials.

"The plans that were made (by FEMA)-- which were not given any sort of stamp of authority -- were never distributed or otherwise made available to those who most needed stable guidance; "


Either you want the people closest to the problem to devise a solution (best way in my opinon) or you want bureaucrats in Washington D.C. telling area officials the best way to handle a hurricane in their area (what happened). Regardless, why couldn't anyone get off their ass and do SOMETHING over the past 4 decades? And yes, that includes FEMA.

[crispini]

85. Did you read the article in full?

Sounds to me like the first conference and plan got off to a good start -- people closest to the problem devising the solution with the help and energy of the federal government.

Here are all of the attendees to the first conference:

Attendees included emergency managers from all across Louisiana, representatives from the EPA, the National Guard, the Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, the DOTD, the Red Cross (who I remember as being marginalized and tolerated at best, with more than a little eye rolling from the "professionals"), the State Police, and many others. Also taking on important roles were representatives from the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA, who provided facilitators, computers, and a great deal of support.

Too bad the second conference got cancelled for lack of funding.

A followup conference, to iron out difficulties in some of the individual plans and to formalize presentation of the final package, scheduled for either late '04 or early '05 -- I can't remember and can find no mention of the followup event on the web -- was cancelled at the last minute, due to lack of funding (which agency called the cancellation, I'm not sure, although the lack of funds would take it all back to FEMA, in the end).

I will agree with you that there is plenty of blame to go around and a long history of neglect. However, the most recent plan was effectively torpedoed by the failure to finalize it, and I agree with the Kos poster that FEMA gets the blame for this.

[DFWdem]

88. No, I did not

But Louisiana in general and New Orleans in particular has a long history of corruption in state and local government. The federal government does too, now that i mention it. Couple that with the ineptitude of Mike Brown & FEMA, the bureaucracy of government in general, and the turf wars that naturally accompany so many different agencies trying to work together and it's no wonder the situation in New Orleans turned out like it did.

[crispini]

93. Corruption and inefficiency is inherent in every type of organization.

Even the private sector is filled with those who will turn a situation to their own advantage, lie to get a contract, muddy the waters and play politics instead of doing the right thing, etc. It's human nature -- there are bad apples in every barrel.

But the bright light of an effective leadership -- and, better yet, effective MANAGEMENT -- cuts down on the cockroaches and red tape. The fact that the Bush administration appointed their inexperienced cronies to the THREE top jobs in FEMA -- well, that's just sad.

LA politics may very well be that bad, I don't know. There is certainly plenty of blame to go around. Hold EVERYONE accountable, I don't care if you're a Dem or an R. But Harry Truman had on his desk, "The buck stops here," and this President certainly does not seem to believe in this principle.

He seems to believe in "leadership" not "management" -- a sort of vague captaining of the ship of state, "hey, everybody go THAT way!" without any real understanding of the details of government. He is certainly no policy wonk, and SOMEBODY high enough up in power needs to understand how that complicated, many-levered machine which is government works -- so they can drive that car!

Say what you will about Clinton -- I know many people here dislike him -- if you read his book you will find a love of the details of government, a wealth of minutiae that he was interested in, a true policy-wonk-ish approach to governing. I, for one, think that THAT is the mark of a great President -- a good leader and a good manager too, able to shine the bright light into all of the corners and cut the red tape and make government WORK.

This is what happens when you get the adherents of Grover Norquist in charge. They WANT to break government, to make it not work. And they're in charge of the government, so they can. Break it, that is. And they have.

[crispini]

87. and... why is it either / or?

it seems to me that the best way is to have the locals doing the planning with the support and help of the feds, which sounds very much like the first conference.

[DFWdem]

90. I agree

The locals devise and implement the plan. The federal government provides money and equipment, and personnel if requested. In my world, anyway. :)

[DFWdem]

84. On re-reading my OP

It was an error for me to say 100,000 people elected to stay behind. I meant to say that of those 100,000 that did stay behind, a majority (probably at least 60%)most likely elected to stay behind.

[crispini]

89. You're still just guessing as to their motivations.

Still don't see how you can factually prove that that many people CHOSE to stay behind, especially since an enormously high percentage of people who stayed did not have cars.

The fact remains that MANY who WANTED to evacuate could not. And that's a damn shame.

[DFWdem]

91. Of course it can't be proven

Unless you were to interview everyone who stayed. I'm telling this from my experience of living in the area for nearly 30 years. The mindset regarding hurricanes is the same in New Orleans as it is on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The 2 areas are barely an hour apart, and many New Orleanians have homes and fishing camps in Mississippi, and vice versa.

And I agree, it is a shame.

[FlemingsGhost]

94. Didn't we thoroughly dispell the notion that you understand ...

the mindset of a poor, black Southerner?

The vacation home/fishing camp observation illustrates my point perfectly.

[DFWdem]

95. That's the minority

Perhaps I could've phrased it better by saying that the people of both areas move between the 2 rather easily, moving from NO to Biloxi for a few years and vice versa.

[mestup]

97. "Their homes are all they have."

It really pisses me off the way the MSM was going after this. They acted like translators from Mars to the Regular American People, trying to help us understand the "mindset" of "these people."

"You have to try to understand that for most of these people, their homes are all they have. They don't want to leave."

WTF? For MOST American people that's all we have. That's the pot of gold they sell, right? Our homes. The American Dream. White picket fences and whatnot.

If you're of the right working class, you spend your money re-doing your kitchen in $10k oak cabinets and $5k in window treatments. If you're poor, you "re-do" your kitchen at Wal-Mart with hand towels and spoon rests in a black and white cow theme.

What's the difference? It's still all we've really got.

[pitohui]

100. poor ppl have poor friends & family

but thanks for playing

[FlemingsGhost]

30. Thanks, crispini.

Now we have some numbers, not a "guesstimate."

[LSK]

43. your math is way off

The metro population of NOLA was about 1million. 5 - 10% of them with no way of leaving = 50,0000 to 100,000. When you are taking 5% of people who remained (100,000), that is erroneous.

[DFWdem]

45. Where did you get your numbers?

Because the US census says that as of 2003 there were roughly 469,000 people in New Orleans. Did the population explode to 1 million in 2 years?

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/22/22071.html

[crispini]

47. metro nola vs. city of.

both numbers are correct.

[DFWdem]

51. No

You're counting Metairie and Kenner in those numbers. Completely different

[crispini]

54. Like I said,

METRO vs. CITY OF.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Orleans

Population
Total (2000) -- Metropolitan -- Density
484,674 -- 1,337,726 -- 534.4/km²

[DFWdem]

56. You're talking about completely different areas

"The Incorporated city limits of New Orleans is the same as the boundaries of Orleans Parish."

http://www.enlou.com/maps/orleans_map.htm

Jefferson Parish, which includes 2 of the aforementioned cities, has about 452,000 people, with a breakdown of 70% white and 23% black. The pictures you see of people being rescued are almost all from Orleans Parish.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/22/22051.html

[crispini]

60. What part of the words "metropolitan area"

do you not get? I am attempting to explain to you why both numbers get bandied around and both are correct, it's just a matter of people needing to be more precise with their wording.

population of New Orleans (city of) 484,674
population of the greater metropolitan area 1,337,726
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Orleans

People use this kind of terminology all the time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_metropolitan_area

edited to add:
Population of Dallas, city of -- 1 million.
Population of DFW metropolitan area 5.6 million
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas%2C_Texas

People are forever saying they are from "Dallas" when they mean Garland, Irving, Plano, stuff like that. Frankly, I find it annoying. NOT the same thing.

[DFWdem]

62. Well...

Considering we were discussing the people in New Orleans who could not or did not get out, I would say the number to use is the population of Orleans parish. There wasn't a big issue with people being trapped in Jefferson parish.

[DFWdem]

63. Yes, you see the difference there

The DFW metroplex area has about 5.6 million, while Dallas has about 1 million. So if one were to say the residents of Dallas were trapped, it would not be accurate to say 5.6 million people were trapped.

[LSK]

69. fine, lets just use the actual city

469,000 * 20% = 93,800 people. Still a lot of people who could not leave, dont ya think. Much different than your erroneous calculation of 20% of 20% that you are doing for some strange reason.

[DFWdem]

70. Okay, let's do

How many people were reported to be in New Orleans on Tuesday, about 100,000? Which is more logical, that every person who did not have a car stayed, or that many people who had cars elected not to go thinking the hurricane either would miss them or the impact would not be that bad?

[LSK]

98. I would think of the 100,000 who stayed

I would guess 75% could not leave and 25% were ones who thought it wouldnt be that bad.

75,000 - about 15% of the population who did not have means to leave. That falls within the range of 10-20% of the population.

25,000 - about 5% of the population who did not think it would be bad and ignored the warning.

We are also discounting tourists who probably count about 5000 of the people who were stranded there. I have seen a lot of video and heard stories of people who were tourists who could not get out.

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Horse with no Name]

24. hmmmm

sitting on my hands cause I was told not to poke em when I saw em.

[mopinko]

25. meh, i know

i just get these uncontrollable twitches sometimes.

[DFWdem]

26. Obviously I am

Based on the people who are from Florida who posted here and agree. I almost lost my in-laws because they didn't evacuate until the last possible minute, and when they did they moved to a curch that was swamped under 13 feet of water from the storm surge. Fortunately they decided to head for higher ground than the church or we'd have been looking for their bodies rather than trying to contact them.

You must understand, the benchmark for hurricanes in Mississippi/Louisiana used to be hurricane Camille in 1969. It was a category 5 with sustained winds of 190 mph. Katrina was a category 4 with sustained winds of 140 mph. Many people figured they made it through Camille, and Katrina was no Camille. Well, the difference was Katrina was a much larger storm and remained over areas for a much longer period of time, whereas Camille was smaller, more concentrated, and had passed over the affected areas within about 3 hours.

[mopinko]

32. the death and damage in nola was not from the hurricane

it was from the corruption.

[DFWdem]

33. Finally something we can agree on

Although I wouldn't attribute all the death and destruction to corruption. The hurricane was vicious, no doubt about it.

[blonndee]

29. Oh, so you know better than the people who lived there why they stayed?

Because what they are saying, according to reporters and their own words, is that they couldn't AFFORD to leave. Others stayed to protect their pets.

You need to listen to the people themselves before you "decide" you know the answer to such a complex question.

And where the hell do you get your numbers? How do you know that "these people probably number roughly 5000-10000?" Did somerove--I mean someone--tell you that?

[DFWdem]

31. I know because I lived there

Well, Mississippi coast (the hardest hit area), not New Orleans. Some stayed because they couldn't leave, some stayed because they didn't think it would be that bad, some stayed because they didn't want to leave their belongings behind for fear of looting.

[blonndee]

37. Ok, but that wasn't what you said. The overall point you made was

that people stayed because "they played chicken with the hurricane." You made some really small allowance for some exceptions, but you spent most of your post explaining why people play chicken--they don't think it will be that bad. Which may be true for SOME people, but in NO I think it's different. There are a lot more people there who had a lot fewer options. So I don't think the same generalizations can be made in this case, at least not to the same extent as other, wealthier places.

[DFWdem]

46. Call it what you will

I was giving insight to those who have no idea of the mindset of people in the Gulf Coast region. If you haven't experienced it it's not obvious. Many people wonder why others don't evacuate for hurricanes when there is so much advance notice given.

[FlemingsGhost]

49. Please offer some insight regarding the conditons of poverty.

I'll ask again: Are you, or have you ever lived in extreme poverty?

[DFWdem]

52. No

But then, neither have 99.9% of the people in the US. You want extreme poverty? Talk to the 1 billion or so people in the world who live on about $1 a day.

[FlemingsGhost]

55. So you are making more than one assumption, aren't you?

"But then, neither have 99.9% of the people in the US. You want extreme poverty? Talk to the 1 billion or so people in the world who live on about $1 a day. "

That is neither here nor there. We are talking about New Orleans, USA. And, of course, your experience and understanding regarding the region and its people. The very basis for your much heralded "insight."

On edit:

Last question: Are you an African American, living in the deep South?

[DFWdem]

58. What other assumption would that be?

You can put your head in the sand and claim I have no idea what I'm talking about. I'm offering one reason why many people stayed in the city. Of course some stayed because they had no choice, others because they feared for their property, still others because they did not think it would be that bad. In fact, it wasn't bad until the levee broke. However, many people were trapped because by the time they realized how bad things were getting it was too late. One question for you (actually 2): where do you live, and have you ever lived in the Deep South?

And no, I'm not black. Yes, I lived in the Deep South for 29 years.

[FlemingsGhost]

64. Your reasoning is not based on experience, just speculation.

You have no idea of the conditions of poverty, that might make it extremely difficult for personal mobility. You have no idea the mistrust and and hesitation when it comes to African Americans dealing with government and various authorities. And your math is still being hashed out, as I type.

Yes, I lived in Florida and Georgia.

I, however, am not the one offering "insight," on experience that simply doesn't exist.

[DFWdem]

66. Wrong again

I know the conditions of poverty, as my former state (Mississippi) is one of, if not the poorest, state in the nation. But you must be right, I never saw abject poverty. And yes, my reasoning is based on experience and not just speculation. Or does the experience of talking to and iteracting with Louisiana and Mississippi residents of both races for nearly 30 years qualify as mere "speculation"?

[FlemingsGhost]

71. But you haven't lived it.

Therefore, your life/health/family/job has never been compromised because of it.

That's all I'm saying.

[DFWdem]

78. We didn't live in poverty

But growing up in a family of 7 kids on a government worker's salary didn't leave much money for extras. My mom would bring a pen and paper to the store to keep a running tab of how much she was spending because there was only so much money for food each week. Practically everything I wore had been been worn by at least two older brothers prior to being given to me. So no, we weren't desperately poor, but we certainly didn't live high on the hog.

[FlemingsGhost]

38. I'm curious, DFW ... are you poor?

New Orleans dirt poor, I mean.

[crispini]

39. WRT the Miss. coast, you are correct.

I believe I saw Gov. Barbour say that 70% of Biloxi residents stayed.

However, 80% of NOLA evacuated. Since 30% of NOLA residents do not own a car (see my post above) that means that 10% of residents DID in fact use your strategy of 'ride with a friend.' The rest quite simply had no way out.

[Alamom]

92. I lived on Mobile Bay...it's not so cut and dried...not so easy

We lived on Mobile Bay for several years, due to work transfer.
We kept an old Ford van in good running order, just in case.

We lived 2000 ft from the Bay and about 8 miles from the Gulf.
We were middle class, (maybe, not sure anymore)
My parents, retired and poor.(we helped with their income)
Two young nephews.
An elderly RICH aunt who had weathered all the Hurricanes for 40 years except Frederick.

The Van was for family, pets and anyone else we could squeeze in. (Just in case.) We never had to prepare to leave except once and the storm turned.

If there had been a big one during that time,
my aunt would have not left...some people just get to that point of "I'm not leaving....she was use to weathering the storms. Very intelligent woman, rich by her own work...not born into weatlh.

My parents or nephews would not have had the means to leave if it had not been for us..... several other neighbors in the same situation.

I say us, my husband would have had to stay...considered essential personel due to job.

If you have not lived on the coast of any of these states, it's really hard to understand. I understand, because I met a lot of people and heard their reasons.


South of us, there were many on the coast who would never leave and didn't leave this time.
Many did not have the means. Many just won't leave.

It had not been my home my entire life. If it had been, I may have been one of those who wouldn't leave.

I was always prepared to leave and take as many as possible...if we had stayed for many years, I don't know. I think I would........

[VOX]

40. BULL! Google "played chicken hurricane katrina" & you get RIGHT WING blogs

Links below DELIBERATLY omitted so as not to publicize these pinheads. But anyone can google the phrase "played chicken hurricane katrina" and spot these and more.

Sorry, DFWdem, but you're spouting a right-wing talking point about this tragedy. It's along the lines of "Why do they even live where there are hurricanes?"

Here's a small sampling of the right-wing sewage I found in five minutes on Google regarding how people "played chicken" with Katrina:
- - - - -
Some people did a stupid thing. They played chicken with a train. And some of them died. Yeah, well, tough shit. They should have left. They had their chances, but they thought somebody was gonna take care of them, because somebody has always taken care of them. I wonder how many final thoughts were, "No fair!"

As President Bush is "pummeled" daily with very unfair accusations of all sorts, I want to send him praise and say, good job for saving possibly hundreds of thousands of New Orleans residents from almost certain death. While state and local officials of Louisiana played chicken with a Cat.5 hurricane refusing to call for mandatory evacuation of the city of New Orleans.

The city leaders of a relatively economically-challenged city played chicken with a storm (an historic one as it turned out) in the hopes that the cost and inconvenience of such an evacuation would not need to be realized.

Is it REALLY Pres. Bush's fault? Is it REALLY man-made global warming that would have been fixed in less than five years if we had only signed onto the Kyoto protocol? Or is New Orleans simply in the path of hurricanes and local and state government's in New Orleans and Baton Rouge played chicken with fate - and lost?

[FlemingsGhost]

41. Has DFW evacuated DU?

:shrug:

[blonndee]

42. Good call. Smells fishier and fisher in here...

[FlemingsGhost]

44. Tastes like chicken, though.

Runs like one, too.

[DFWdem]

48. And your point is?

So 4 other people in the world have used a similar analogy. So what? If you have something to say at least have the courage to say it without trying to skirt the issue. Otherwise, kindly STFU.

[oasis]

53. He said Google "played chicken with Hurricane Katrina''. But that

was hours ago. Did you have a chance to get to it yet?

[DFWdem]

59. Haven't bothered

It's still irrelevant.

[A-Possum]

68. I'd say one reason the evac rate was as high as it was is...

That it was a weekend.

I was in Corpus Christi in 1980, hurricane David, cat 5, direct aim on Corpus. Mid-week, my mother called asking when we were leaving. Well, no one in my office was making any moves to leave. Some talked of sitting it out, some said they'd leave on Friday. I was young and new and not able to assert my own common sense. Hurricane headed for us, spot-on. But leaving the office on say, Thursday, seemed like a wussy way to get out of work, cause no one else was leaving. You see the psychology? Nobody (including boss) was willing to say, H*ll with this, I'm getting out of here. So none of us could.

So, by the time my husband and I left (earlier than anyone in my office), the single interstate out of Corpus was bumper-to-bumper STANDSTILL all the way to San Antonio. Thank GOD the hurricane turned at the very last moment and made landfall south of the city, in largely uninhabited ranch land. Or it would have come right over the entire city sitting in cars out on the open highway.

That taught me a lesson.

I'd say the one tiny break that fate gave New Orleans was that the evac was on a weekend and people were not forced to "leave" work. Because I'll guarantee that even with mandatory evac, a LOT more ppl would have stayed.

[Mythsaje]

82. I'd've been gone, myself...

welcome to DU!

[blonndee]

86. Likely many people had jobs that required them to work weekends.

Working poor includes a great number of service employees, and the mandatory evac. wasn't issued till Sunday. The voluntary evac was, I believe, on Saturday.

How many businesses closed, I don't know, but I think it's safe to say that at least a good number had to work that weekend.

Also, they were told to expect to be in the Superdome till at least Tuesday, and maybe even Wednesday. Poor people cannot afford to miss work or lose their jobs for leaving.

But you're probably right in that for people of better means, the weekend evac likely contributed to a larger % of people who left.

[mbee]

99. Actually I heard a report the other day that the Mayor of LA was able

to evacuate 80% of his citizens. There was a huge communication breakdown and many who did not leave could not due to age, health, etc. FEMA should have let the people who were ready to go in do that and many, many lives would have been saved. Also the people would have gotten water and food sooner.

[marshall]

101. Those who stayed behind

When I hear a story from somebody like Charmaine Neville who says she did not have enough money to get out of town because she had just had her house reroofed and could not find a ride from the myriad of siblings, uncles, cousins, and other family she has in the area, I wonder just how poor does one have to be and how alone in order to say you can't get out of town?

[rman]

102. "played chicken with the hurricane" - How do you know?

That's quite an accusation to thrown around without evidence.

Also, do you think it is coincidence that many of the people who didn't evacuate are poor? You know where many of the poor were 'evacuated': to the Super Dome - which isn't really evacuation because it is inside NO. We know the situation in the dome is very problematic, even with 'only' 10 to 20,000 people there.
The main reason why many did not evacuate is because basically they could not pay for it.