Evacuations and NOAA Katrina predictions - Useful data

[ThoughtCriminal]

Several *-bots have been telling me that Mayor Nagin should have ordered the evacuation sooner - Friday or Saturday. I've been looking at the timeline and comparing to the NOAA forcasts to see if there is a legitimate argument here.

A timeline can be found here:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/katrina-timeline.php

And an archive of the NOAA forcasts can be found here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA.shtml

Of particular interest, are the NOAA "Strike Probabilities". This is the estimated chance the the center of the hurricane will pass within 65 nautical miles of a location in the next 72 hours. The NOAA tables break down the possible arrival times in seperate columns. I have included the total strike probabilty for New Orleans, LA up to the mayor's manditory evacuation order (column "E").

One note- I am not certain if the times in the TPM timeline are EDT or CDT, so there may be an hour difference. I used EDT for NOAA.

Friday, August 26:

5:00 AM: NOLA Strike Probability - 8%
11:00 AM: NOLA Strike Probability - 10%
11:30 AM: Katrina is upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane.
5:00 PM: NOLA Strike Probability - 15%
5:00 PM: the National Hurricane Center issues an advisory forecasting that Katrina would soon be a Category 3 hurricane.
Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco declares a state of emergency for Louisiana.
11:00 PM: NOLA Strike Probability - 17%

Saturday, August 27:

5:00 AM: NOLA Strike Probability - 17%
11:00 AM: NOLA Strike Probability - 19%
5:00 PM: Mayor Nagin declares a State of Emergency and issues a voluntary evacuation order, saying he is having his legal team determine if he can order a mandatory evacuation without exposing the city to legal liability for the closure of hotels and other businesses.
5:00 PM: NOLA Strike Probability - 21%
11:00 PM: NOLA Strike Probability - 26%

Sunday, August 28:

2:00 AM: NOLA Strike Probability - 25%
2:00 AM: Katrina is declared a Category 4 storm.
5:00 AM: NOLA Strike Probability - 29%
8:00 AM: Katrina is declared a Category 5 storm.
10:00 AM: New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin orders mandatory evacuations of the city.
11:00 AM: NOLA Strike Probability - 35%

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[Whoa_Nelly]

1. You mean "Katrina" ?

But really it's "Karina". Didn't you get Pickles' meme? <<teasin' :)>>

[ThoughtCriminal]

2. Fingers fail me

at least I didn't say "Carina"