Classic Polling Surprises ( Jesse Ventura ) dead in polls, yet won.

[Room101]

pollsurprise

Predicting the Minnesota Governor's Race

There are still upset elections happening today, but the news media are much more on top of these stories. Consider the Minnesota election for governor in 1998, won by former professional wrestler Jesse Ventura over his nearest opponents, Hubert Humphrey III and Norm Coleman.

On September 15, the primary results for the governor’s race gave Humphrey the most votes among all candidates, with 154,037. Coleman had 107,989, and Ventura was pretty far behind with 14,960. Each placed first among the candidates in his respective party, so these three were on the ballot for November.

A poll conducted a month later showed Humphrey and Coleman nearly even with 35 percent and 34 percent, respectively, and Ventura with 21 percent.

On Election Day, Ventura won with 37 percent of the vote. Coleman was second with about 34 percent, and Humphrey was third with 28 percent.

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS?

[SharonAnn]

1. I believe that one of the dynamics that existed in Minnesota was

that they allowed Election Day Voter Registration. That way somebody could go to the polls, almost on a whim, and register and vote at the same time.

This kind of dynamic would certainly put a whole new set of tactics in place for GOTV (Get Out The Vote).

[WaterDog]

2. This is comforting

but didn't everyone say Ventura won because of same-day voter registration. However, thanks for the reminder about polls.
I'm ready to start another REcall if Arnold wins.

[Room101]

4. Same-day voter registration, definitely made a impact

Polls are another way to manufacture and shape public opinion.

[bucknaked]

3. On the other hand...

...in exit polling, 80% of Ventura voters said they would've otherwise voted for Humphrey.

I think a lot of Arnold's appeal comes from the "I'm not the politics-as-usual" attitude he's trying to convey, which is what got us Ventura. I think in a recall election, this becomes especially effective.

Still, I think it's a great comparison between the two races. Being native-American myself (hopi), I'm really hoping Arnold goes down, hard! Him and his rhetoric towards tribal gaming had me wishing I actually had a DVD of one of his tacky-ass movies, just so I could fling the POS.