an apology: clearly I have busted

[redsoxliberal]

when one is not yet a proffessional meteorologist (I hope to be one in several years... now I am just an amateur,) it is often dangerous to diverge quite so far from the NHC/TPC as I did in this thread (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4663303&mesg_id=4663303)
Clearly, my claim that Ophelia was certain to go into the gulf of mexico was completely incorrect... and while it was certainly viable meteorologically... I thought it was highly likely and am still puzzled as to why it didn't.
Anyhow... it did not, and with the situation that NOLA was in at the time, and remains in, it was probably irresponsible to diverge so much from an official track, even given reasonable model back up and what seemed to be a fairly basic principle at work.
My apologies for any nervousness or anger caused.

A look at the future... landfall as cat 1 cane at NC/SC boarder... heavy rain up the coast from there and some strong winds... it is possible that New England gets hit on a second landfall, either by a TS or EXTREMELY minimal hurricane, if it reemerges quickly enough over the gulf stream after 1st landfall... but the main issue with this one will be some flooding in NC.

[ret5hd]

1. hey, you could still be the weatherman in MY town!

[redsoxliberal]

4. oh dear... where the hell do you live??? :D

[ret5hd]

7. it probably doesn't matter...

everyone says the same thing about their local guy...despite all the improvements that have been made in weather forecasting (of which i am sure you are well aware).

[redsoxliberal]

8. yep... and it continues to get better...

unfortunately, Bush cannot stop his holiday to have a look at what is being forecasted 4-5 days OUT!

[justabob]

2. You were not alone

On NPR a few days ago, there was a report that Max Mayfield(I hope that is right - the head of National Weather Service) called leaders in NOLA saying that the models were all over the place but that a couple had Ophelia tracking into the gulf and he thought he should alert them.

[bluedawg12]

3. Weather: everyone has an opinion no one controls it, keep

on learning and studying you are on the right track.

Peace and thanks.

[Catchawave]

5. Following Floyd's path ?

You're still better qualified than my local "Super Doppler" guys!

[redsoxliberal]

6. perhaps... but probably further east AND

much less impact in the southeast.

[redsoxliberal]

9. just another comment on Ophelia

(please be patient for any results because I have to run to class)

I think Ophelia will likely pass closer to Cape Cod than is currently forecast for several reasons.

The American and Global models this morning are rather undecided, after slightly better agreement last night, many of the shorter range globals have moved to the west (even while the GFS and NOGAPS have moved further east,) the world's best (ECMWF) remains a little further east than some of the other globals, but has been having serious trouble with this storm (as evident from the fact that it had landfall in New Orleans for several runs in a row, throwing several off,) so may carry less weight than normal.

Looking at a couple of the further west solutions, the GEM (Canadian,) UKMET, and ETA/NAM (extrapolated) are the main suites with the western track... with the GEM tracking into SNE, and the UKMET tracking just outside the Cape (harder to tell due to lower resolution of the extended 120 hr UKMET.)

The NAM at 84 hrs is tracking NNE:


The GEM at impact:


the crappy UKMET map:


Normally, while looking and seeing most tropical models in such agreement this close, I would probably make a forecast only weighing the globals slightly... the globals, while more powerful and better, are not designed for TS's, so it can be hard for them... however, I will borrow an argument from an NECN met now... the heights across the east are much higher and have been much higher for days... this confluent flow will slow down the shortwave expected to kick Ophelia east... and therefore a longer northern component can be expected.
I expect Ophelia to track between Cape Cod and Nantucket Friday, with heavy rains and gusty winds for Southern New England Thursday and Friday... rains of 2-5", with locally higher amounts... TS winds should be confined to the Cape and Islands... but gusts to 50 may be felt inland as well...

bye for now!

[redsoxliberal]

11. this is not just me being stubborn

I continue to believe that this will track closer to the coast, possibly with a direct hit for Cape Cod or Nantucket... I have outlined some of the reasons in the posts above (the maps may no longer be relevant based on the time you are reading it, but even now, while they have changed, all 3 still support a New England hit.

The NHC, inexplicably, has shifted it's track even further SE... AND LEFT ALMOST ALL OF CAPE COD OUT OF IT'S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY!
Those in New England (SE MA and RI have the best bet) will see effects from Ophelia from Thursday, possibly all the way to Saturday depending on the speed.
I'll try to respond to any questions when I get back from school.

[ladylibertee]

10. NC ? Oh, I sure hope Mr. Edwards will be alright. I'm worried for him