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In 2004 the economy wont be a winner however it is. National Security/Foriegn policy will be Bush's vulnerability. Why? For one reason: The Bush Doctrine. This goes beyond mere failures (which there are plenty of). This is the most fundamental policy decision this administration has under taken or will under take. This doctrine is the derivative in his calculus, the water in his sea. This is what his administration will be remembered for, 10 years after he leaves office, 100 years, and for the rest of the lifetime of the republic. This was his response to 911, which was beyond any doubt the most important event in his entire presidency. This is the cornerstone of his presidency, and it is, luckily enough, the worst, most sinister document ever to come out of the White House. Bush will have to defend this policy. There is no way around it. If he defends it and the democrats attack it, and offer an internationalist alternative, he will lose. If he abandons it, he will look wishy washy and will lose. He has no choice, but to defend it.
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