Heads up, Carolinians! The latest on Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Penndems]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 122052
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005
...CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED FROM 5 MPH TO 3 MPH...
...OPHELIA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
**********************************************************************
000
WTNT41 KNHC 122112
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

THE INNER CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOSTLY
OBLITERATED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN BANDS 50-60 N
MI OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SINCE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY
EXTENSIVE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY EFFECTIVE AT
MIXING STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
LEVEL AND DROPWINDSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
NEAR 60 KT. OPHELIA IS CROSSING THE GULF STREAM SO THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...UNLESS AND UNTIL THE
INNER CORE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT
OPHELIA WILL RE-ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

A SLOW AND MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 310/3...HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SINCE LATE MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL NOT WELL
DEFINED AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RECURVE OPHELIA AND TAKE IT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER 3 DAYS...WILL NOT EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST NOGAPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT OPHELIA WILL
MEANDER OVER/NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE TROUGH
CARRYING OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD...AND TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC BY 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF
DIVERSE GUIDANCE BUT DOES INDICATE RECURVATURE...AND A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.

STORM SURGE PREDICTIONS SHOWN IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY ARE BASED ON A
CATEGORY 1 LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 31.8N 77.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 32.3N 77.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 32.8N 78.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 33.3N 78.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 34.2N 77.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 35.5N 76.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 41.0N 67.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
**********************************************************************
Link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. IGNORE IT, search out Santorum's Accuweather instead.

these guys don't know anything; you have to pay to play.

:sarcasm:

[Penndems]

3. LOL - Typical right-wing logic

If it ain't broke, BREAK IT! :crazy: :banghead:

[mmonk]

2. thanks

[Thtwudbeme]

4. Big deal. You better bet your behind Fema will be johnny on the spot

Lots and lots of gated community type housing on the NC coast.

Sorry, but there is.

And before the other NC DUers chime in and flame me; yes, I am well aware of the more slightly inland communities that will be flooded.

This post was mostly sarcastic. Mostly.

Stephanie

[CottonBear]

5. Please let it miss Hunting Island, SC. I'm going there in two weeks.

If a hurricane hits the SC State Park owned island, all of the little cabins and the campground would be wiped out. :(
At least it wouldn't cost much to rebuild since there is so little infrastructure there now. Still, I am selfish and have been waiting 6 months for this vacation to this wild, unspoiled and enchanted island.

[Rainscents]

6. Wow, I'm surprise this hurrican is still sitting and spinning!

Hum, I wonder, right wing is controling this storm.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

7. yeah, reminds me of the White House.

all that hot air, too