especially one that seems to be at odds with your sense.
Look at this, a site which does not receive nearly as much attention as it deserves:
<
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/#anchor_44>and this analysis
Regarding poll bias
30 June 2004
I, like many others, have long suspected that some pollsters may have their thumb on the scale, favoring Bush, in their polls. This would be foolish, of course, because the real bread and butter for the pollsters is in market research, where accuracy is more important than politics. Even so, that was my suspicion.
I was mistaken. I finally rolled up my sleeves and tested the hypothesis directly; not only were none of the results significant, none of them even suggested the swings I expected.
Pollingreport.com posts several "approval" polls from Bill Clinton's second term. I used this data to construct a "Clinton Index," similar to my Bush Index. To my wonder and amazement, I discovered that the rankings of the individual pollsters were not much different: Fox and Zogby at the extremes, everybody else clustered around one or two points. Most important, none of the ten pollsters in the database exhibited a significant, or even conspicuous, swing from Clinton low to Bush high (or vice versa). I'm convinced. The pollsters are honest, or at least deserving of the benefit of a doubt.
and pay attention to the scatters, like this:

which are far more telling than any one poll for any one time point.