Undercover speculation: why won't Bush* react?

[Samantha]

Why doesn't Bush* end Wilson-gate today? Flush out the culprit. End the debate. Do it and get this behind us.

Why won't Bush* act? To do so would reveal a fact or shed a proponent necessary for election in 2004. Who or what from Bush*s perspective is not expendable? What facts in the severance act could be revealed that would prematurely adversely impact Bush*s election in 2004?

Potential answers: (1) the loss of Rove as his election quarterback; (2) the implication (or admission) of a direct Bush* involvement; (3) the premature revelation of the dump-Cheney strategy; (4) the loss of a scapegoat for all Bush* failures, not just this one, in an untimely political manner. Preserve the act of the Cheney political decapitation until the last strategic moment. In so doing, Cheney can take the hit for all of this mis-administration's misfires.

On the other political hand, if one has heard the public political clues Rove has been dropping to Cheney about the 2004 ticket, i.e., we got a new number two, has Cheney fed the Wilson-gate story as a return of political fire aimed at Rove? It's a natural assumption Rove is the politcal prisoner partisans want to take. This type act is a classic Rove maneuver. If Rove didn't do it, Cheney had to know most people would naturally suspect him. The deed would appear to bear his fingerprints: are they real or planted? Cheney's message to Rove: if one of us has to go, YOU have MY vote.

If timing is everything in politics, when will Bush* act on the Wilson-gate controversy, a potentially felonious act? When the failure to do so adversely impacts a Bush* election in 2004 worse than the failure to disclose does.

Do you agree or disagree?

[diplomats]

1. I agree

This implicates people high in the Bush WH or they would've ended this already by turnng over the guilty parties.

[Samantha]

5. And who do you think it is

Libby and Rove? Or do you think Bush* himself is one of the culprits?

[snippy]

32. White House Chief of Staff, Andy Card was in charge of Iraq disinformation

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A39500-2003Aug9

Card reports only to bush.

[Samantha]

33. Afterthought

What about the Office of Special Plans? This is the super-secret organization created by Cheney to review classified information and select that which supported previously-designed strategies, i.e., the war on Iraq. Off the government payroll, this organization was beyond the control of Congress.

Two questions: is it a violation of the Constitution to create a super-secret organization and allow it to actively participate in the review of classified information and function beyond the reach of our legistative branch? Isn't this a violation of the Checks and Balance intention of our founding fathers (not that that would keep either Bush* or Cheney from sleeping at night).

Beyond that, is the focus on this issue a threat to the public revelation of this agency and scrutiny of its existence under the Patriot Act? The CIA has to be ticked, knowing that this arrogant mis-administration selected rank amateurs to review its classified work product and twist the interpretation of the intelligence by highlighting only that which furthered their purposes. While the creation of this arm has been briefly mentioned by the national press, the creation of this unit and introspection into its work has not received sufficient attention to place it in the public eye.

Will the investigation of Wilson-gate do exactly that? And how will the public react?

[snippy]

34. That group provided intel to the White House Iraq Group.

The White House Iraq Group or WHIG was formed by Andy Card in August of 2002 to market and create support for the invasion of Iraq. It also was charged with framing the debate so that republicans would benefit politically from the invasion. WHIG's responsibilities included the creation and coordination of all of the lies to support the invasion, including the yellowcake and other nuclear weapons lies.

From an excellent article describing the WHIG:

The group met weekly in the Situation Room. Among the regular participants were Karl Rove, the president's senior political adviser; communications strategists Karen Hughes, Mary Matalin and James R. Wilkinson; legislative liaison Nicholas E. Calio; and policy advisers led by Rice and her deputy, Stephen J. Hadley, along with I. Lewis Libby, Cheney's chief of staff.

The first days of September would bring some of the most important decisions of the prewar period: what to demand of the United Nations in the president's Sept. 12 address to the General Assembly, when to take the issue to Congress, and how to frame the conflict with Iraq in the midterm election campaign that began in earnest after Labor Day.

A "strategic communications" task force under the WHIG began to plan speeches and white papers. There were many themes in the coming weeks, but Iraq's nuclear menace was among the most prominent.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A39500-2003Aug9

The WHIG not only chose what lies to use, it also chose when, where, and how the lies would be disseminated. And by whom.

[TruthIsAll]

41. Wilkinson..hmm

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=16022

[trof]

2. You make some good points.

But once again, the repubs seem to have learned nothing from Watergate and Nixon's actions. It's not the act itself that brings you down. It's the coverup. If Nixon had honestly come clean and apologized and rid his administration of all involved, even AFTER his re-election, I think he would have served out his second term and possibly gone down in history as a brave and righteous president.

It was just not in his nature to do so. Not in the nature of repub politics in general. They can never bring themselves to take the blame for anything.

I think we're seeing the beginnings of the coverup. I fervently hope it has the same results as Nixon's.

[Junkdrawer]

3. The Rove/Bush* relationship brings this image to mind...

[rfranklin]

4. They have classic crime family loyalties...

and they resist ratting out the capos who have murdered for them. It all usually blows over or gets covered up--a la Iran Contra treason. The culprits have all been rewarded with money and positions. However, if Bush senses he is in mortal danger, he will put the contract out. I think it will be Cheney. For Bush, dumping Rove would be like amputating his dick.

[Samantha]

6. I think it will be Cheney as well

if Rove wins the power struggle. I think Cheney will be reluctant to go because, quite frankly, there's too much money at stake.

Rove is the one who vowed to turn Dems against Dems in 2004. What he might not have foreseen is the Republicans eating their own. It's a ghastly sight to behold, isn't it?

[Mz Pip]

7. He believes

the Teflon will save him once again. Nothing sticks to this guy. How many times have we said "This is it! This is what will bring down Bush." Then nothing happens.

Bush figures this will just go away like all the other problems. THey can be spun away, lied about or ignored.

MzPip
:dem:

[Samantha]

9. It's a politically amateurish attempt to take a play from the Clinton

play book. Delay, delay, delay. That won't work here because it has pretty much been established that a law has been broken, the only unknown is the perpetrator(s). During the Clinton's scandals, when he exercised his delay strategies, the commission of a crime, or crimes, had yet to have been established.

The result of any "delay, delay" strategy on the part of Bush* will be the further inference that from where they sit, they harbor the assumption they are above the law. This arrogant assumption has been evident to at least half of the American people since the theft of the 2000 election. With the conclusion at hand that a crime, perhaps of a Federal nature, has in fact been committed, the only inference one can draw is the Bush* pattern of we are above man's law since we have been chosen by God to serve is once again in play.

How long will it take before the other half of the American public sees Bush* and his cabal not as servants of God as they purport but mere common criminals?

[Booberdawg]

8. I think Cheney and Rove will both go down

Remember - there were TWO senior administration officials that leaked this information. My bet is Rove and Cheney/Libby

[Samantha]

12. That would be too good to be true

I think Cheney's definitely out because someone like Gulianni is the heir apparent. Bush* wants to take California and New York. We know the plan for gaining control of the California apparatus. With the plan to hold the Republican primaries in New York, the only incentive that would improve Bush*s New York moment would be a New York son on the ticket with him. Although Rudy is pro-choice, by the time the election season rolls around, that issue, the abortion issue, will be blunted by the vote this week to end partial birth, and will be secondary to holding on to the White House four more years.

Of course, Bush*s first choice has to be Ridge (extremely helpful when eyeballing Pennsylvania and recognizing Ridge is his best friend); but I do not believe Ridge, nor for that matter Frist, will run. Cheney's out. Who do YOU think is the new number two?

[Booberdawg]

36. Frist or Hagel

[truthseeker1]

37. Powell - new #2

They'll dump Cheney primarily because they want someone in the Veep position to groom for '08. Secondly, they can get someone more likeable on the ticket to reassure voters - my money is on Powell - and thirdly, they can scapegoat Cheney for the leak, Iraq, everything they need to wipe their hands of. In fact, I wouldn't put it past Rove to set this thing up with Novak to create the impetus for removing Cheney. Of course, the public reason for Cheney stepping down will be his health. Cheney will go back to Halliburton (after a brief waiting period) and in the meantime will continue to run Iraq behind the scenes. So nothing will really change except on the surface.

[OldSoldier]

38. Giuliani could have an "epiphany"

Discussing Giuliani's pro-choice leanings dismisses one critical point: before beconing the number two man on the Reagan ticket, George the Elder was pro-choice and was the inventor of the term "voodoo economics." When he joined the Reagan camp, he magically became a pro-life supply-sider and had been that all of his life.

If Rudy is tapped, he will suddenly have always respected the sanctity of the unborn and have always thought people involved in "the abortion industry" should be up for days of the bastinado.

[ShaneGR]

10. Here's why I think your logic is flawed

You base your thoughtline on the myth of the Bush Presidency. The truth is that Bush has little or no control over what's going on.

Dick Cheney is the one who has the power.

[Samantha]

13. Cheney would agree with your statement

but Rove would not. The controversy within the party is exactly who is top dog.

I think they all are beginning to realize a senior official must go as a consequence of the Bush* failures. The struggle within is to determine who exactly that will be.

Personally, I do not think feeding Rice or Powell to the public wolves will satisfy the frenzy. It's come down to Rumsfeld, Cheney or Rove, the real powers behind the thrown. I think Bush* wants Rumsfeld to stay, he truly needs Rove, but thinks he can do better as far as picking someone to run with him in 2004 who has a bit of charisma and who can help take him over the finish line. Of the three, Cheney is the natural sacrifice.

What do you think?

[leftofthedial]

11. they are constructing a plausible cover

they'll create a scapegoat or a cover story.

The truth is much worse than we think.

[Samantha]

17. I agree the truth is much worse than we think

but the question is: will the designation of a scapegoat in this administration lead to further "leaks" that will sink the entire Bush* ship? Political paybacks are indeed hell. Looking simply at the nature of this cast of characters, who exactly will exit quietly and not "leak" for the sake of settling some political debts? Answer: No one.

[even]

14. Shock and Awe!

In 1941 the Nazis attacked the USSR destroying whole armies. Weeks passed before Stalin said anything. He just couldn't believe what had happened. It wasn't in the plan.

[ComerPerro]

15. He can't speak out on it for two reasons:

He hasn't yet been told what to say

and

He is probably directly involved.

[Samantha]

18. Okay, I like your analysis better than mine

It's short, to the point and probably extremely accurate on both counts.

[ComerPerro]

22. Thank you

A very kind compliment

:-)

[gulliver]

16. They don't want to create a bigger cover-up.

If Bush investigated, more people would find out the truth. Then all of those people would have to tell the truth to the justice Dept. and/or independant counsel. Or they could hide the truth and commit felonies themselves.

They want as few people as possible in their gang to know who did it. They are battening down the hatches hoping the storm will blow over.

Now, one might ask, "What does that say about their concern for national security?"

[Samantha]

19. Maybe that or maybe this:

They are looking for a White House plumber for the 21st Century. Hopefully, it will be a hold-your-hand-over-the flame kind of stand-up type of plumber as opposed to there's-a-cancer-on-the-presidency tell-all kind of guy. They have to take a little time to find exactly the right type of Mr. Fix It.

[Samantha]

20. Bump

to see if I can get a few more responses from the evening crowd.

[grasswire]

21. everything else has gone away...

....after a few days. From Enron to 16 words. All gone quietly out of sight.

However, I think there's another problem. I think he can't afford to lose the people involved. He's just so absolutely dependent on his inner circle.

[Samantha]

26. Wilson resurrected the issue of the 16 words today on Meet The Press

This first became an issue in July (I believe). It's not going away. Wilson has made it clear he intends to pursue it. He tied his findings and subsequent report as a direct contradiction to the inclusion of the 16 words in that Bush* speech. Because he dared to contradict Bush* and those words, his wife was made to pay a political price. This is a tough town, Wilson said, but up until now, a critic's family has been off limits.

I think this story and how it plays out remain to be seen. Regardless of the Bush*/Cheney success in the past of repelling attacks from the opposition, too many issues are converging at the same political intersection at this point in time for that to happen now.

It's a good sign for the Dems. There are those in our party who are now ready to stand up and fight and help make both Bush* and Cheney a part of our unfortunate political history, as opposed to our continuing political future.

How do you think these events will culminate in a conclusion?

[kentuck]

23. He's doing the moonwalk...

as some reporter stated this AM on one of the talk shows...In other words, the Administration is "stonewalling", just like they did with the Cheney energy records, until it disappears or another story takes its place....

[Samantha]

27. I believe David Broder quoting Sharpton on this issue

used the expression "moonwalking" on Meet The Press this morning.

Sharpton has a unique gift for selecting precisely the right word to capture his point. "Moonwalking" the issue to describe the non-reaction of Bush* is simply perfect.

[NicoleM]

24. my observation

They would have scapegoated somebody by now if they thought they could get away with it. I believe the CIA knows or strongly suspects who the leakers are. If the admin also believes that, they can't just cut anybody loose.

They would have gotten rid of the real perpetrators by now if it was anybody they thought they could do without. Bush can't do without Rove or Rummy, and Cheney isn't going quietly into the night. Therefore, I think they're rolling the dice and taking the chance that nobody will be able to prove anything, even if the CIA has a pretty good idea who it was.

Option B: The leakers have tried to pin it on subordinates who won't take one for the team, since it could mean public humiliation and jail time. So they're still trying to figure out how to get out of this.

[Samantha]

28. You make an excellent point

I believe two witnesses are required for the 1982 law to be applied. In the case of a leak, witnesses are difficult to acquire. Usually the only literal witnesses are the one who does the leak and the one who receives the leak. Neither is apt to talk.

There's always the conspiracy angle, but that would require getting the literal goods on someone like Libby and bargaining with him in order to hook a bigger political fish, for example Karl Rove. I do not think the odds of this are good as long as Ashcroft is spearheading the investigation.

It might be the most that can be made of this is a true political hot potato as opposed to the unraveling of a felony due to the unlikely odds of acquiring two witnesses.

However, it has been suggested unofficially that these charges might be pursuable under the Patriot Act. I am not familiar with the requirements of how that would be done, but I am sure the pursuit of the charge of treason also requires two witnesses.

Perhaps John Dean's suggestion of a civil lawsuit is the best we can hope for, but considering Wilson's wife's statements, I am not sure she would be willing to step into the light for the purpose of pursuing the leakers in civil court .... What do you think?

[NicoleM]

30. Thanks.

I'm not sure how much time she would have to spend in the public eye if she sues. These things take so long and most civil suits, IIRC, are settled. So she might not have to go public at all.

[ThoughtCriminal]

25. Tuesday is better

Someone else pointed this out. Better to do it while everyone is paying attention to the California recall. Maybe they will sacrifice Libby to protect Rove.

[Samantha]

29. Would YOU be satisfied with LIBBY?

I don't think the head of Libby is a big enough sacrifice for Bush* to make, do you? Will Wilson?

It's long been rumored that every political move must be cleared by Rove. He might not have initiated the calls, but I believe he had to have approved them. And we have Wilson's words today pointedly reporting at least a follow-up on the leak by Rove. Reporters contacting Wilson specified conversations with Rove. And of course we have that infamous statement credited to Rove, "Wilson's wife is fair game."

In a conversation not to long ago with a Republican, I mentioned that someone high in the administration would be sacrificed if the guerilla warfare being used in Iraq was not turned around. The Republican friend stated the military knew this and knew their jobs were in jeopardy if their failure to contain the situation did not improve. I thought that's not going to cut it in the eyes of the public. And in this instance, the sacrifice of Libby, I do not believe will satisfy the demand for a bigger fish to fry ... do you?

[Malva Zebrina]

31. Bush won't react ;because no one so far has written the script he is to

follow. This is a pathetic man who waits around for others to tell him what to do and then pathetically acts out the part he has been assigned. He has not a clue and further at this point, I do believe that others laugh at him, or would laugh at him should he attempt any thing on his own. He is just plain too stupid and lazy--that has been his practice all of his life. His credentials and more importantly his IQ, do not meet up with those who are really running this farce of an administration. Bush is just the poster boy--convenient because of his name and his daddy's connections--just like everything else in his life. No wonder he needed to display his genitals by trussing them up into a very large ball for the entire world to see when he "flew" a jet and "landed" it on a carrier. This was very important to him--this meant he was "in charge" and was capable of something! LOL he had to show that he was a "real" man, because obviously no one around him gives him any credence or respect. He is a poster boy and he knows it. Ugh--he has destroyed this country--it will take an enormous amount of energy to restore it.

[DoYouEverWonder]

35. Bu$h doesn't need to react

because he's too busy staging his next major distraction with Ariel Sharon. I have a bad feeling that the ME might wipe everything else off the front page for a while.

[rhite5]

39. Will Bush* even BE the candidate in 2004?

In answer to your question though, I agree no one has written the script.

But I have this hunch that the GOP will have to run someone else for President in 2004 -- Bush* is too badly damaged. So, in a sense, Bush* himself becomes the fall guy for everything. (if it is possible to wait a year from now for resolution of Wilsongate - it probably is not possible).

[PATRICK]

40. Power pattern

How Jeb handles things is pretty much how bro does it too. When things are hot, lay low. No words, no visibility. The press relases vanish and lett the headlines pretty much go back to local OK stuff. The hog the spotlight for some photo op or other. Flood the headlines with good feeling stories about the leader. Problems, lay low.

Pretty much an occupation strategy all the way.